MANILA, Philippines – A “developing ridge of high pressure” above Tropical Depression Enteng may cause the tropical cyclone’s track to shift further west, which would “increase rainfall amounts over mainland Luzon,” the weather bureau warned on Sunday evening, September 1.

As of 7 pm on Sunday, Enteng was already over the coastal waters of Baras, Catanduanes, still moving northwest at 15 kilometers per hour (km/h).

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in a bulletin released past 8 pm that Enteng could make landfall in Catanduanes — or pass very close to the province — within 3 hours, and make another landfall in mainland Bicol in the next 12 hours.

The tropical depression maintained its strength, with maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h and gustiness of up to 70 km/h.

But Enteng might strengthen into a tropical storm within 12 hours, according to PAGASA.

The weather bureau is now warning of torrential rain in parts of Bicol and Quezon. Here is the rainfall forecast for Enteng as of 8 pm on Sunday:

Sunday evening, September 1, to Monday evening, September 2

• Torrential rain (> 200 millimeters): Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Polillo Island, southern part of mainland Quezon
• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): rest of Quezon, Catanduanes, Masbate, Albay, Sorsogon, Northern Samar, Samar
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Isabela, Quirino, Aurora, Bulacan, Metro Manila, rest of Calabarzon, Marinduque, Romblon, Eastern Samar, Biliran, northern part of Leyte

Monday evening, September 2, to Tuesday evening, September 3

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Isabela, Cagayan, Abra, Ilocos Norte
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Aurora, rest of mainland Cagayan Valley, rest of Cordillera Administrative Region, rest of Ilocos Region

Tuesday evening, September 3, to Wednesday evening, September 4

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Babuyan Islands, Apayao, Ilocos Norte, northern part of Ilocos Sur
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Batanes, mainland Cagayan, rest of Cordillera Administrative Region, rest of Ilocos Region

Floods and landslides are threatening areas affected by the tropical depression.

Enteng is also bringing strong winds to these areas which are under Signal No. 1 as of 8 pm on Sunday:

• eastern part of Cagayan (Lal-lo, Gattaran, Buguey, Santa Teresita, Gonzaga, Santa Ana, Baggao, Peñablanca)
• eastern part of Isabela (Palanan, Dinapigue, Divilacan, San Agustin, San Guillermo, Jones, Echague, San Mariano, Maconacon, San Pablo, Cabagan, Tumauini, Ilagan City)
• southern part of Quirino (Nagtipunan, Maddela)
• southern part of Nueva Vizcaya (Alfonso Castañeda)
• Aurora
• northern and southern parts of Quezon (Tagkawayan, Guinayangan, Buenavista, San Narciso, Mulanay, San Andres, San Francisco, Lopez, Calauag, Catanauan, Gumaca, Macalelon, General Luna, Quezon, Alabat, Perez, General Nakar, Infanta, Real, Mauban, Unisan, Pitogo, Padre Burgos, Atimonan, Agdangan, Plaridel) including Polillo Islands
• Camarines Norte
• Camarines Sur
• Catanduanes
• Albay
• Sorsogon
• Masbate including Ticao and Burias islands
• Northern Samar
• Samar
• Eastern Samar
• Biliran
• northeastern part of Leyte (Babatngon, San Miguel, Tacloban City, Alangalang, Santa Fe, Palo, Barugo)

PAGASA said the highest possible tropical cyclone wind signal due to Enteng would be Signal No. 2 or 3.

Enteng is also enhancing the southwest monsoon or habagat, which is affecting parts of Southern Luzon, the Visayas, and Mindanao.

In its 4 pm forecast on Sunday, PAGASA said Mimaropa and much of the Visayas will have occasional rain due to the enhanced southwest monsoon in the next 24 hours.

Metro Manila, much of Calabarzon, and Mindanao will also have scattered rain and thunderstorms from the enhanced southwest monsoon.

In addition, the enhanced southwest monsoon will cause strong to gale-force gusts in these areas:

Sunday evening, September 1, to Monday evening, September 2

• Mimaropa, Western Visayas, Central Visayas, Negros Island Region, Eastern Visayas (outside wind signal areas), Caraga, Northern Mindanao, Zamboanga Peninsula

Monday evening, September 2, to Tuesday evening, September 3

• Zambales, Bataan, Aurora, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, Visayas, Caraga

Tuesday evening, September 3, to Wednesday evening, September 4

• Zambales, Bataan, Aurora, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, Western Visayas

A separate and more detailed habagat update is expected from PAGASA at 11 pm on Sunday.

Enteng and the enhanced southwest monsoon are affecting coastal waters as well.

The gale warning that PAGASA issued at 5 pm on Sunday remains in effect. This warning covers Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, the eastern coast of Camarines Sur, the eastern coast of Albay, the eastern coast of Sorsogon, and the northern and eastern coast of Northern Samar (waves 3.7 to 4.5 meters high). Seas are rough to very rough, so travel is risky for small vessels.

Outside the gale warning areas, moderate to rough seas are expected in the eastern seaboards of Central Luzon and Southern Luzon (waves 1.5 to 3.5 meters high), as well as the eastern seaboard of Eastern Samar and the seaboard of Kalayaan Islands (waves 1.5 to 3 meters high). The weather bureau advised small vessels not to venture out to sea.

Moderate seas are also seen in the southern seaboard of Calabarzon, remaining seaboards of Bicol, Palawan, and Eastern Visayas, as well as the seaboard of Western Visayas, northern and eastern seaboard of Caraga, and eastern seaboard of Davao Oriental (waves 1.5 to 2.5 meters high). Meanwhile, slight to moderate seas are possible in the eastern seaboard of mainland Northern Luzon, remaining seaboards of Mimaropa, Visayas, and Caraga, as well as the seaboard of Northern Mindanao and eastern seaboard of Davao Occidental (waves 1 to 2 meters high). Small vessels must take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible.

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After Enteng’s expected landfalls in Catanduanes and mainland Bicol, it may emerge over the waters north of Camarines Norte and Camarines Sur, then move over the waters east of Luzon on Monday, September 2.

Beginning Tuesday, September 3, Enteng may move west northwest over the Luzon Strait, while slowing down from Tuesday to Wednesday, September 4. PAGASA said it is not ruling out another landfall in mainland Northern Luzon or Babuyan Islands.

Starting Thursday, September 5, Enteng is likely to maintain a more northwest movement.

The weather bureau added that Enteng might intensify into a severe tropical storm on Wednesday and into a typhoon by Thursday or Friday, September 6.

Also by Friday, Enteng could exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility.

Enteng is the country’s fifth tropical cyclone for 2024 and the first for September. PAGASA previously estimated there may be two or three tropical cyclones during the month.

There is also a 66% chance of La Niña forming in the September-November period. – Rappler.com