Contemporary Strategic Developments In The Indian Ocean: Key Takeaways
“Covering approximately 27 percent of the Earth's water surface, the Indian Ocean is the third largest ocean. It’s surrounded by Asia, Africa, Australia, and Antarctic Ocean, and connects the Pacific Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea. The trade routes transiting through Indian Ocean are vital for commercial shipping and have strategic and military implications. The region recorded a total trade volume of $6.17 trillion, in 2020. Chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz, Babel-e-Mandeb, Horn of Africa, Suez Canal, and Malacca Strait serve as crucial transit nodes for global trade.
In contemporary world, shaped by China-U.S. power struggle, control over the Indian Ocean and its crucial trade routes has significantly elevated its strategic significance. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a physical demonstration how Beijing is building up infrastructure and gradually expanding its presence in its surrounding regions, particularly Indian Ocean Region (IOR). To protect its economic interests in Indian Ocean, China is gradually increasing its naval capabilities and outreach. Chinese military base in Djibouti (2017) exemplifies Beijing’s increasing focus in securing sea routes through military means.
Additionally, People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is rapidly increasing its size and has already become the largest navy as far as numerical vessel count is concerned. Pentagon report titled Military and Security developments involving the People’s Republic of China (2023) forecasts that PLAN is focusing on increasing its fleet size to 400 warships by 2025, up from its current fleet of 340 warships. Therefore, China’s rapid naval capabilities modernization is perceived by Washington as threat to its naval hegemony, especially in the Indo-Pacific Ocean Region.
United States is undertaking measures to contain Beijing’s growing influence in Indo-Pacific Region. United States already has a robust presence in IOR and has its fifth naval fleet, USNAVCENT, stationed in Bahrain. Moreover, key strategic bases, like Diego Garcia, have allowed United States to consolidate its power projection capability in entire IOR. Beside, Washington is forming new alliances in the region.
Quad (2007), a strategic forum consisting of United States, Japan, India, and Australia, aims to enhance maritime security. But according to Beijing, this forum is directed to contain rising China though collaborative efforts of like-minded powers. The members of this coalition also conduct annual Malabar Exercise which represents military axis of this multi-lateral platform.
Furthermore, AUKUS, a trilateral strategic pact among Australia, United Kingdom and U.S., signed in Sept 2021, aims to enhance defence and security cooperation between three nations. The most prominent aspect of AUKUS is the $368 billion worth deal for providing nuclear-powered attack submarine (SSN) to Royal Australian Navy (RAN). Beyond the risk of accelerated nuclear proliferation in the region, this agreement could motivate other nations to acquire similar capability. For instance, currently, India is focusing on acquiring French naval nuclear propulsion technology. This presents challenges related to nuclear arms race as well as, to the safety of nuclear assets.
Under Modi's leadership, India has showcased a more assertive posture in Indian Ocean. This posturing is in accordance with India’s ambitions of being regional hegemon and to act as net-security provider in Indian Ocean Region. Similarly, U.S. and India also share common interests in the Indian Ocean as far as containment of growing Chinese influence is concerned. In 2016, U.S. designated India as a major defence partner to broaden American influence by facilitating increased bilateral defence trade, technology transfer and cooperation on various security issues in IOR.
According to U.S. and India security pundits, by developing economic and naval presence in Indian Ocean, stretching from mainland China to the Horn of Africa through various military and commercial instalments, Beijing is strategically encircling India. This strategy, unofficially termed as “The String of Pearls,” aims to build a network of maritime infrastructure at key strategic locations in Indian Ocean including Bab el Mandeb, Hormuz Strait, and Lambok Strait while extending diplomatic and commercial support to regional maritime nations. New Delhi administration fears that Chinese capital deployment in Chabahar port and Gwadar port could potentially hinder India's maritime trade in the region. Pakistan holds extremely important geostrategic position and intends to enhance its geopolitical standpoint in the Indian Ocean through China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project. Since Pakistan is geographically close to the Strait of Hormuz, a conceivable flash point, the unhindered trade flow is a prime concern for Pakistan.
To counter this threat perception, New Delhi has also launched a counter strategy, unofficially called ‘Necklace of Diamonds’. The Necklace of Diamonds strategy comprises establishment of Indian Naval bases in Singapore, Indonesia, Iran, Oman and Seychelles which will significantly expand India’s naval outreach. Additionally, India has focused its foreign policy towards Africa, South-East Asia in order to out-compete China in the IOR.
Beside developing naval infrastructure in surrounding regions, New Delhi is also establishing robust military co-operation with Washington by signing several bilateral strategic agreements. In 2016, the U.S. and India signed Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) for logistics access, allowing port calls, refuelling and joint military exercises. Additionally, Communications, Compatibility and Security Agreements (COMCASA) was signed in 2018 and has ensured intelligence interoperability and intelligence exchange. Similarly, in 2020, Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) deepened the partnership by facilitating the geo-spatial intelligence and aeronautical data. These agreements, however, are compromising the balance of power in the region. The intensification of security dilemmas has launched a new arms race in the region. Moreover, if this arms race gets aggravated, the situation might lead to conflict between regional and extra-regional IOR stakeholders.
In brief five key takeaways can be highlighted as far as contemporary strategic developments in Indian Ocean is concerned. First, China-U.S. power struggle is reshaping the geopolitical order. It has led to increased militarization and aggressive posturing by both nations. On global scale, this competition has polarized the countries, forcing them to find delicate balance between both powers.
Second, collaborative arrangements like Quad has brought together United States, Japan, India, and Australia for securing collective interests like China’s containment. However, it’s unlikely that Quad will evolve into a NATO replica due to inherent compatibility in political and military domains, the shortfall in the geographical proximity among the stakeholders, and absence of a credible legislative framework.
Third, security pacts like AUKUS can set trend of exploiting the loop holes in nuclear non-proliferation regime. This agreement has the potential to motivate other nations to gain nuclear capabilities which would potentially make the not only the Indian Ocean but entire world more nuclearized.
Fourth, enhanced U.S.-Indian cooperation and India’s assertive naval build-up can disturb the Indo-Pak balance of power. This development will compel Pakistan to modernize and expand its naval capabilities even further. Consequently, it will lead to naval arms race between India and Pakistan which can compromise regional strategic stability of entire region.
And finally, any crisis in Indian Ocean can potentially disrupt key SLOCs passing through the region. The Indian Ocean stands as a critical theatre in a multipolar world where the pursuits of gaining control over vital trade chokepoints like Strait of Hormuz and Bab el Mandeb have attained significant security and strategic significance. The disruption can have global consequences as it can undermine global economy with severe spill-over impact.
The intensifying China-U.S. power struggle in Indo-Pacific region, particularly Indian Ocean, will intensify regional security dilemma, which will accelerate naval arms race involving global as well as regional powers. Emerging alliances, like Quad and AUKUS can jeopardize the balance of power. The situation might lead to tensions between regional and extra-regional IOR stakeholders. These tensions, if not mitigated through confidence building measures like arms control and non-proliferation, could potentially escalate into full scale conflict with global ramifications.”