Analyzing the Cavs most-used lineups from last season

The lackluster starting lineup put a cap on how good the Cavaliers could be.

Elite teams are often the ones that have the most different ways they can beat you. This comes from having high-level talent and different lineup combinations that can be called upon depending on the situation. The Cleveland Cavaliers had some of those ingredients last season but fell short of expectations due to their mediocre starting unit.

The Cavs had just five lineups that played over 150 possessions together last season according to Cleaning the Glass. Here’s a look at how they performed. These are presented from the least to most minutes played.

For context, the Cavs team-wide net rating was +2.4 (65th percentile) with a 115.3 offensive rating (51st percentile) and a 112.9 defensive rating (75th percentile).

Lineup: Donovan Mitchell / Max Strus / Caris LeVert / Isaac Okoro / Jarrett Allen

195 possessions, -2.1 net rating (38th percentile), 114.9 offensive rating (42nd percentile), 116.9 defensive rating (38th percentile)

This was a group that J.B. Bickerstaff likely turned to out of necessity more than he did for strategic reasons. The lack of front-court depth when Evan Mobley was injured and the inconsistencies in both performance and availability from Dean Wade and Georges Niang gave way to this group.

The poor defense isn’t too surprising. Even though two of their three best defenders were on the court, Okoro was playing out of position. This led to opponents grabbing their own misses (30th percentile for rebound rate) and getting to the line fairly often (27th percentile FT rate).

The lackluster offense is more surprising. This group should have decent spacing with enough ball handlers to set up Allen. But, they shot just 28.8% from three which contributed to their poor play.

Lineup: Darius Garland / Caris LeVert / Isaac Okoro / Georges Niang / Evan Mobley

236 possessions, +22.5 net rating (90th percentile), 124.6 offensive rating (74th percentile), 102.1 defensive rating (89th percentile)

This was the most successful high-usage lineup in terms of net rating. They dominated both ends of the floor. Their only struggles came with taking care of the ball (9th percentile in turnover percentage) and clearing defensive possessions (23rd percentile in rebounding rate). Shooting the lights out (48.1% from three) allowed this group to be as potent as it was.

One of the trends from this past season was Garland + spacing + Mobley worked as did Mitchell + spacing + Allen. This formula didn’t translate if you tried adding another core member to the groupings.

Lineup: Darius Garland / Caris LeVert / Isaac Okoro / Georges Niang / Jarrett Allen

300 possessions, -3.9 net rating (30th percentile), 124.7 offensive rating (74th percentile), 128.6 defensive rating (7th percentile)

Basketball is weird. Swapping Allen for Mobley transformed this group from the best to the worst of these five lineups. It’s easy to attribute that to shooting luck (opponents shot 41.7% from three) or small sample sizes. There’s also an imperceptible difference that one person can make in a five-man unit.

One thing that is worth pointing out is that this group was also great offensively. Even though Niang had a rough season, the offense did perform better with him on the floor.

Lineup: Donovan Mitchell / Max Strus / Isaac Okoro / Dean Wade / Jarrett Allen

484 possessions, +20.7 net rating (89th percentile), 123.8 offensive rating (73rd percentile), 103.1 defensive rating (86th percentile)

Units with Okoro and Wade were exceptional last season. Those groups outscored teams by 8.9 points per 100 possessions (90th percentile) by absolutely locking down opposing offenses (105.8 defensive rating, 98th percentile). Their defensive versatility in the front and back courts with an elite defensive center behind them was simply too much for offenses to handle.

Bickerstaff didn’t try to see how the Okoro and Wade pairing would fare with both bigs. They played just three possessions together. It’ll be interesting to see if that’s something that Kenny Atkinson experiments with this upcoming season.

This five-man lineup worked more offensively because of their ability to generate second-chance opportunities which was rare for the Cavs last season. They grabbed 30% of their misses (70th percentile). This is likely a function of pairing Allen and Wade together.

Lineup: Darius Garland / Donovan Mitchell / Max Strus /Evan Mobley / Jarrett Allen

765 possessions, +2.3 net rating (52nd percentile), 114 offensive rating (39th percentile), 111.7 defensive rating (61st percentile)

Having a perfectly average starting lineup with four All-Star caliber players isn’t acceptable. This is completely different from the previous season where the starters, with Okoro instead of Strus, had a +7.8 net rating.

The question is whether the starters were worse — or at least had worse chemistry — this past season or if opponents just figured them out. I would suggest the latter.

The starters dominated two seasons ago because of their ability to get to the rim. They actually attempted a higher percentage of shots at the rim this past season than they did the one prior. The difference was they didn’t finish. The starters converted 71.6% at the rim last season (67th percentile) compared to 74.2% the year prior (86th percentile). This led to the 2022-23 group being able to get to the line much easier as well. Other complications such as Garland and Mitchell’s injuries factored into this as well.

Regression in basketball doesn’t always happen because a player or team gets worse. Oftentimes it’s a result of the league adjusting and not being able to find a counter to that. The New York Knicks exposed the Cavs starters in a way that was clear for everyone to see. Cleveland responded by adding shooting (as seen in the successful bench lineups) but wasn’t able to overcome the deficiencies within their core four that were on complete display during that humiliating series.

The starters, and specifically the core four, need to control games like they did in the 2022-23 regular season if they’re going to take a step forward. Having multiple lineups that can work is useful, but a team will only go as far as their starting lineup can take them. Whether or not Atkinson can make the necessary counters could determine his tenure in Cleveland.