[DECODED] From gold medals to scandals: Who’s hot in the 2025 Senate race?

As the 2025 senatorial elections approach, potential candidates are hustling to capture the attention of voters. Social media has become the ultimate battleground, and every post, mention, or selfie counts. 

But who’s really dominating the conversation? 

According to The Nerve’s analysis of share of voice, some candidates are better at commanding attention than others. This analysis is based on the number of posts mentioning each senatorial hopeful from August 1 to 31, 2024.

As seen in the share of voice chart, Bong Go is leading the pack with a significant share of online mentions. No surprise there — he’s been pouring money into Facebook ads, with a reported P958,352 spent, according to a May 2024 Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism report.

Based on Pulse Asia’s June 2024 senatorial preference survey, Go ranked 5th-8th.

Hot on his heels are Senator Bato dela Rosa and former president Rodrigo Duterte, who continue to make headlines due to their association with the drug war, which is being investigated by the International Criminal Court.

Along with Dela Rosa and Duterte, Senator Imee Marcos also made waves online as she called out the “excessive” show of force by authorities during the operation to arrest fugitive preacher Apollo Quiboloy in Davao City.

Meanwhile, actor-turned-senator Bong Revilla Jr. keeps his audience engaged with a variety of Facebook Live videos, ranging from gym workouts to public appearances.

Rappler, in collaboration with data consultancy The Nerve, zooms in on the top narratives that have thrust these candidates into the spotlight.

Gold medals, gold votes?

The Olympic Games offer not just athletic glory but golden opportunities for politicians to boost their image. Filipino Olympians like Carlos Yulo, who bagged two gold medals, have unwittingly become political props.

As corporate sponsors lavished the athletes with rewards, these politicians were eager to follow suit. Enter Senator Francis Tolentino. He didn’t just commend Yulo with words but also facilitated the handing of a brand-new SUV to the Olympian.

Lawmakers like Go, Pia Cayetano, and Tolentino filed Senate resolutions commending the athletes. In the June senatorial survey, Cayetano ranked 3rd-5th, while Tolentino ranked from 13th-19th. How will their direct or indirect interaction with Yulo months later affect these rankings?

The social media of potential candidates are also flooded with selfies and congratulatory posts. 

Every congratulatory photo, every resolution filed, is a small piece of political currency in the social media bank. And let’s be honest: voters remember who’s standing next to the gold medalist, not necessarily who among them are truly advancing sports in the country.

Recto faces backlash

While some ride high on sports victories, others feel the heat of scandal. Finance Secretary Ralph Recto found himself in hot water after ordering the transfer of PhilHealth’s excess funds to the national treasury. 

Social media erupted with the hashtag #rectohandsoffpeoplesmoney as critics condemned the move, accusing him of diverting funds meant for public health, despite the explanation of Recto in defense of the order.

This backlash stems from the remittance of P30 billion from PhilHealth to the national treasury, sparking outrage among citizens and fellow lawmakers. 

Senate Minority Leader Koko Pimentel and other petitioners have brought the matter to the Supreme Court, seeking a temporary restraining order and demanding the return of the funds. The backlash has fueled online discussions. 

For possible candidates like Recto, such actions may come back to haunt them.

Duterte, Dela Rosa: Haunted by the drug war

Duterte and Dela Rosa are being hounded by the specter of their bloody drug war. As critics push for accountability, it seems the election cycle is a reminder of old wounds that refuse to heal.

In August, Dela Rosa expressed alarm over the statements of Justice Secretary Jesus Crispin “Boying” Remulla and Solicitor General Menardo Guevarra regarding the ICC probe into the Duterte administration’s controversial drug war.

In an interview, Guevarra said that the country would not prevent ICC prosecutors from interviewing individuals linked to Duterte’s drug war. Meanwhile, Remulla said it is the responsibility of the Interpol to serve the arrest warrant once issued.

Dela Rosa, whose term ends in 2025, confirmed in May that he is gunning for reelection.

And Duterte? Well, history suggests he’s always one surprise away from shaking things up. His daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte, recently hinted that her father and brothers Paolo and Sebastian might throw their hats into the senatorial ring, despite Rodrigo’s denials. 

And if his 2016 presidential bid tells us anything, it’s that Duterte knows how to flip the narrative.

Duterte ranked 3rd-6th in the June senatorial survey, while Dela Rosa placed 7th-12th.

Tulfo brothers: Popularity, name recall

The Tulfo brothers — ACT-CIS Representative Erwin Tulfo and TV and radio personality Ben Tulfo — seem to follow the playbook of their popular brother, Senator Raffy, in tapping social media popularity for political gain.

Raffy associated his successful 2022 campaign to his radio and online show Raffy Tulfo in Action, where he tries to solve aggrieved Filipinos’ problems by confronting concerned authorities on air. His 21 million followers on Facebook and 28.4 million subscribers on YouTube are telling of how popular he is. 

Erwin is riding high in the polls, ranking first in the Pulse June 2024 senatorial pre-election survey, while Ben placed 3rd-5th.

Recently, the Tulfo brothers gained public sympathy on social media following the death of their mother, Caridad Teshiba-Tulfo.

The race to the Senate in 2025 is not just about platforms or policy; it’s about presence, both on the ground and online.

Past elections have shown the pivotal role of social media in securing victories, from Duterte’s 2016 presidential bid to President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s networked disinformation and propaganda that helped his family reclaim Malacañang.

Social media is the politicians’ stage, and the Filipino public is watching, liking, and — eventually — voting. – Rappler.com

Decoded is a Rappler series that explores the challenges and opportunities that come with living in transformative times. It is produced by The Nerve, a data forensics company that enables changemakers to navigate real-world trends and issues through narrative and network investigations. Taking the best of human and machine, we enable partners to unlock powerful insights that shape informed decisions. Composed of a team of data scientists, strategists, award-winning storytellers, and designers, the company is on a mission to deliver data with real-world impact.