2024 Emmy Predictions: Best Drama Supporting Actor
Four years after winning his first Best Drama Supporting Actor Emmy for “The Morning Show” and two years after losing on his second bid to Matthew Macfadyen (“Succession”), Billy Crudup is poised to achieve a bookend win for the Apple TV+ series. He does, however, face several serious challengers, including multiple actors hailing from this year’s most-nominated program, “Shōgun.”
The only one of Crudup’s half dozen competitors who, like him, is not new to this category is his own castmate, Mark Duplass. Also in the mix are recent “The Morning Show” addition Jon Hamm and former movie/limited supporting nominee Jonathan Pryce (“The Crown”).
In order to determine if anyone can block Crudup’s potential victory, let’s take a closer look at each nominee. Be sure to make your predictions in this and 24 other Primetime Emmy categories by September 15.
Tadanobu Asano as Kashigi Yabushige (“Shōgun”)
Episode: “Anjin”
Asano is the first person since 2017 winner Ann Dowd (“The Handmaid’s Tale”) and nominee Chrissy Metz (“This Is Us”) to be recognized in either drama supporting category for a series premiere performance. His Yabushige is introduced as a scheming feudal Japanese underboss who spares the life of a stranded English sailor in order to use him as a political pawn.
Billy Crudup as Cory Ellison (“The Morning Show”)
Episode: “Ghost in the Machine”
At this point, Crudup is responsible for earning “The Morning Show” its one and only Emmy win. In the second installment of the series’ third season, media CEO Cory finds a silver lining after failing in his attempt to secure a hefty ransom demanded by a group who have placed his network under cyberattack.
Mark Duplass as Chip Black (“The Morning Show”)
Episode: “The Overview Effect”
In addition to being nominated for his work on this series in 2020, Duplass was awarded the 2018 Best Documentary Series prize as an executive producer of Netflix’s “Wild Wild Country.” In the third season finale of “The Morning Show,” his character appears on the titular program (which he produces) to expose billionaire Paul Marks’s (Hamm) plan to dismantle its network.
Jon Hamm as Paul Marks (“The Morning Show”)
Episode: “The Green Light”
Hamm, whose new “Morning Show” character serves as a general antagonist as well as a love interest for Alex Levy (Jennifer Aniston), is concurrently competing for Best Movie/Limited Actor as a star of the fifth season of “Fargo.” These new bids bring his acting Emmy nominations total to 14 and could bump his win haul from one to three, given that he took the 2015 drama lead prize for “Mad Men.”
Takehiro Hira as Ishido Kazunari (“Shōgun”)
Episode: “Crimson Sky”
Hira has submitted the penultimate episode of his show’s first season, in which his character – a 16th century Japanese regent – meets with his chief rival’s representatives to discuss a surrender. In addition to also serving as lead actress Anna Sawai’s submission, the pivotal chapter is recognized for its directing, writing, and cinematography.
Jack Lowden as River Cartwright (“Slow Horses”)
Episode: “Hard Lessons”
At 34, Lowden is the youngest member of this lineup by 13 years and could become this category’s sixth youngest champion, after Chad Lowe (“Life Goes On”), Gary Frank (“Family”), James Brolin (“Marcus Welby, M.D.”), Aaron Paul (“Breaking Bad”), and Timothy Busfield (“Thirtysomething”). In this episode of his show’s third season, his British spy character is convinced to break into MI5 headquarters in an effort to rescue a kidnapped colleague.
Jonathan Pryce as Prince Philip (“The Crown”)
Episode: “Willsmania”
Like Hamm, Pryce is concurrently nominated in another category, namely Best Drama Guest Actor for his role as River Cartwright’s grandfather. Here, his version of Queen Elizabeth II’s spouse (previously played by 2018 nominee Matt Smith and 2021 winner Tobias Menzies) meets with their teenage grandson in an attempt to broker peace between him and his distant father.
So, who will win the 2024 Emmy for Best Drama Supporting Actor? According to our users, this is by far the tightest acting Emmy race of the year, as Crudup tops our simulated ranking with just over 60% of the win votes. Still, him being almost 30 percentage points ahead of Asano and at least 56 points ahead of everyone else bodes well for his potential comeback.
As one might expect, Crudup is in a better position now than he was on his initial outing, when he held the support of 47% of our participating users compared to “Succession” actor Kieran Culkin’s 32%. Even so, the TV academy’s affinity for Asano’s new show and his season-long popularity among our readers make him a very serious threat in a contest that will come down to the wire.
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