Too Little, Too Late: Mariners vs. Rangers Series Preview
The reigning World Champs are bringing their best for an utterly crucial series in Seattle.
With a two-game split against the San Diego Padres, the Seattle Mariners managed to gain a game in the AL West while losing a game in the Wild Card race. They’ll continue their long homestand with a big four-game series against the Texas Rangers, the first of seven games they’ll play against their division rival over the next two weeks
The moment the Rangers have been waiting for all season long is finally here: they’re activating Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer off the IL this weekend. Nevermind the eight largely unremarkable starts Scherzer made earlier in the season before hitting the IL again. And nevermind the significant regression that has hit the lineup that fueled their World Series win last year. And nevermind that Texas is six games under .500 and 7.5 games behind in the division with just 16 games left to play. They built their roster to take advantage of this moment, only the rest of their roster wasn’t able to hold up their end of the bargain.
Nearly every core member of the Rangers lineup has struggled in one form or another this year. Marcus Semien is limping through his worst season since the pandemic-shortened 2020 season; Corey Seager has continued to deal with nagging injuries and his wRC+ dropped 30 points from last year; Evan Carter was dismal when he was on the field and a back injury cut his season short at just 45 games; and Adolis García’s power has disappeared despite solid batted ball peripherals and his wRC+ has dropped nearly 40 points. There are a few positive signs: despite not meeting the overwhelming hype entering the season, Wyatt Langford has had a solid rookie campaign and has performed better as the season has gone on; and Josh Smith has continued his breakout season as a super-utility player. Still, if the lineup’s job was to carry the team until their pitching staff got healthy, they failed miserably at that goal.
Probable Pitchers
One of the most well-known pitching prospects of the past several years, Kumar Rocker is making his MLB debut on Thursday in Seattle. Rocker gained renown as a prep prospect with an athletic pedigree headlined by his father, NFL defensive lineman (and now Tennessee Titans assistant coach) Tracy Rocker. That notoriety only grew with his dominant pitching on campus at the University of Vanderbilt. He eschewed a 10th overall selection by the New York Mets in 2021 and earned his way up the ladder to being drafted 3rd overall the following year by Texas by pitching in independent ball with the Tri-City (NY) Valley Cats of the Frontier League. Despite a massive frame and immense skill, Tommy John came for Rocker in 2023, and some concerns with stiffness and pitch shape stalled the righty, who never made a preseason Top-100 list for any of the major rankers. However, the pitcher he’s been this year as his TJ rehab moves further into the rearview is easily one of the sport’s best pitching prospects, as he blends a running four-seamer in the 97-100 range with one of the best power curveballs any current pitching prospect can boast. His command has been sharp in his recent stretch in the minors but is historically at least somewhat of a concern point.
30.1 innings in two years is nearly the worst case scenario for the deal the Texas Rangers inked deGrom to prior to the 2023 season, but he is at last slated to return. Inconvenient as it is for the Mariners, they’ll face the best-when-healthy starting pitcher of the past decade Friday night. He’s looked like his usual self in four rehab stints, obliterating poor minor leaguers with efficiency, but the fireballer should have a pitch count around 70, meaning any work the M’s can do to labor the two-time Cy Young winner will go a long way. Expect upper-90s heat and nasty sliders aplenty.
The three-time Cy Young winner returns from the injured list to menace the Mariners, giving yet another fearsome test to an M’s lineup that has not exactly been ferocious. Mad Max has mellowed, as the 39 year old has battled injuries and the lowest average velocities of his career, but he’s been a reasonable starter when he’s taken the hill. Three straight starters who may have limitations on their pitch counts is an opportunity for the M’s, but all three are among the higher upside arms currently healthy. The challenge is immense.
Andrew Heaney’s success has always ebbed and flowed with his ability to keep the ball inside the yard. He’s always posted excellent strikeout rates and has good enough command of his three-pitch repertoire that he can be very effective when he’s not allowing a ton of hard contact. That blueprint goes out the window as soon as balls start flying over fences. Back in 2022, he took a pretty significant step forward with the Dodgers and the hope was that newfound ability to strikeout more than a third of the batters he faced would give him a much higher ceiling. That wasn’t the case when he joined the Rangers last year; his strikeout rate fell back to his career norms and his walk rate jumped up three points to make matters worse.
At last, sweet familiarity. When Heaney (presumably) takes the hill Sunday, he’ll tie Sean Manaea and Martin Pérez for 2nd-most starts at T-Mobile Park by an active pitcher who has never played for the Mariners. His soon-to-be 11 starts will trail only Justin Verlander’s 20.
The Big Picture:
The Mariners crept closer to the Astros courtesy of a pesky Athletics club that is one of the more effective groups in the sport in the second half of the season. The Twins did not do the same courtesy, pounding the Angels twice in a row in their efforts to hold back the red-hot Tigers. If you’re still holding out for playoff dreams, given the cluster of teams ahead of the M’s in the Wild Card, the division remains the most plausible (longshot) route, but Seattle remains outside of Houston-sweep striking distance.