Best Limited/Movie Directing Emmy odds: Will there be a 5th female winner in the category?

Only four women have won the Best Limited/Movie Directing Emmy category since 1973: Dearbhla Walsh (“Little Dorrit”), Lisa Cholodenko (“Olive Kitteridge”), Susanne Bier (“The Night Manager”) and Maria Schrader (“Unorthodox”). But that could change with this 2024 lineup, where women make up half the category for the shows “Baby Reindeer,” “True Detective: Night Country” and “Lessons in Chemistry.” The other three programs — “Ripley,” “Fargo” and “Feud: Capote vs. The Swans” — are helmed by established film veterans and previous Emmy nominees. So who will win?

Here are Gold Derby’s current Best Limited/Movie Directing Emmy 2024 racetrack odds:

1. “Baby Reindeer” (“Episode 4” by Weronika Tofilska) — 71/20 odds
2. “True Detective: Night Country” (Issa López) — 9/2 odds
3. “Ripley” (Steven Zaillian) — 9/2 odds
4. “Fargo” (“The Tragedy of the Commons” by Noah Hawley) — 11/2 odds
5. “Lessons in Chemistry” (“Poirot” by Millicent Shelton) — 13/2 odds
6. “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans” (“Pilot” by Gus Van Sant) — 7/1 odds

SEE 2024 Creative Arts Emmys: Complete list of winners

The sleeper hit “Baby Reindeer” has taken the limited/movie genre by storm since its premiere on Netflix in April. Now, one of the most discussed episodes is up in this category, where viewers get a deeper look at the past of Donny Dunn (Richard Gadd) when he is groomed by Darrien (Tom Goodman-Hill). This triggering sexual assault and how it affects his relationships, along with his guilt of never reporting it affects Donny’s police report of a stalking in present time. “Episode 4” is a strong directorial showcase by Tofilska as it plays with various lighting and distorted, colored shots to portray the psychological violence, particularly the sequence where Donny is coerced into doing drugs and is raped by Darrien under the influence.

But right behind her is another woman and one of two directors nominated for the entirety of the season, which this branch tends to reward as of late, given seven of the last nine winners. López takes this “True Detective” anthology series and transfers it to an entirely different environment in snowy, frigid Alaska (a large portion of it taking place at night), putting her own individual spin on all six episodes of the fourth season and creating a new context for the series. This season is not only the most successful outing of “True Detective” at the Emmys, but leads the limited/movie genre with 19 noms, so López should not be counted out.

The other director recognized for his whole series is Oscar winner Zaillian (“Schindler’s List”), who is on his seventh Emmy bid after being recognized for “The Night Of” and “My Dinner With Hervé.” His retelling of the Patricia Highsmith novel takes a more intense examination of the title character (Andrew Scott) as he spirals into his deception and features gorgeous black-and-white cinematography of Italy (shot with Arri Alexa LF digital cameras) throughout its eight-episode run, with only a selective moment to briefly show color.

This is Hawley’s third nomination in this category and this time, he is up for the Season 5 premiere of “Fargo,” which is a roller coaster of an episode as we are introduced to Dorothy “Dot” Lyon (Juno Temple) as she goes on a nail-biting, unpredictable journey when she is unexpectedly kidnapped. A particular standout point in the installment would be the gas station sequence where Hawley plays with action, space and darkness, and the tension is palpable as Dot uses her scrappiness and smarts to protect herself. “The Tragedy of the Commons” currently sits in fourth place behind “Ripley.”

“Lessons in Chemistry” took the Directors Guild of America Awards by storm earlier this year, and one of their DGA-nominated episodes is now up at the Emmys. In “Poirot,” more of Elizabeth Zott’s (Brie Larson) traumatic childhood with her brother and father is revealed and she presently deals with a conflict of paying her show’s crew for a product placement, or joining her neighbor in a protest for the civil rights movement. Despite the historical limited series getting into the top category, this sixth episode does not have a corresponding writing bid, putting it in fifth place. This is Shelton’s second Emmy nomination after being cited in 2009 for directing “30 Rock.”

After nearly four decades of a career in film, Van Sant gets his first Emmy recognition for the “Pilot” of “Feud: Capote vs. The Swans.” This installment juggles multiple timelines when Babe Paley (Naomi Watts) tells Truman Capote (Tom Hollander) about her husband’s extramarital affairs and decades later, when the high society socialites exact revenge on Capote after an excerpt from his upcoming novel is published about their lives, as well as cope with the recent suicide of Ann Woodward (Demi Moore). The show is the only nominee not up for Best Limited Series, defaulting it to sixth place in this category.

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