Outlook Of The National League Wild Card Race

The New York Mets are entering what is the most important week the team has had in years. They will go into play on Sunday night with a record of 86-69, meaning they have clinched a regular season record of at least 10 games over .500. In the past two years, the final National League wild card spot has been won by an 84-win Marlins team in 2023 and an 87-win Phillies team in 2022. However, all signs point to needing a a decent bit more wins than that in 2024.

The Mets ended Saturday with a two-game lead on the Atlanta Braves with seven games left, three of them being in Atlanta starting on Tuesday. The Mets’ magic number sits at six, which can be reduced by one if the Mets clinch the season series over the Braves, which is currently tied. This is similar to how the Phillies entered play on Friday night with a magic number of four, but their win over the Mets clinched the season series tiebreaker. The Mets loss, Phillies win, and Phillies season series win all added together took three off the magic number.

Above the Mets sits the Arizona Diamondbacks, who have handled the Milwaukee Brewers relatively easily this week and hold a one-game lead on New York. The Mets hold this tiebreaker, as they do with the San Diego Padres, who are three games up on New York after playing a series with the historically awful Chicago White Sox.

Following Atlanta, the Mets head to Milwaukee, where the Brewers appear to be slotted into the third seed in the National League playoff picture, which will reportedly lead to Brewers starting pitchers being inning-capped at just five for the rest of the season.

With a win tomorrow, Mendoza’s squad can drop their clinching number to just five. The Mets have a wild week ahead of them, which could include clinching a playoff spot for the second time in the last eight years. What’s does the next week look like?

Sunday

The Mets will take on the Phillies in their final regular season home game of 2024 on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball. Former Met Zack Wheeler will look to lead the Phillies to a division title, which they can clinch with a win on Sunday. The Phillies have not won a National League East crown since the 2011 season.

To counter Wheeler, the Mets will send out Tylor Megill, who has been magnificent in his last two starts. Since his return to Syracuse (Triple-A) was rerouted following Paul Blackburn’s injury, Megill has thrown 12 innings with just three hits allowed, no earned runs, and 13 strikeouts.

The Mets will very likely be without Francisco Lindor again, who manager Carlos Mendoza said is likely out until Tuesday’s game in Atlanta.

Elsewhere, the Atlanta Braves finish their series with Miami at 1:40 pm ET, as Grant Holmes (3.84 ERA) takes the mound for Atlanta versus Miami’s Darren McCaughan (7.64 ERA). Meanwhile, Jordan Montgomery (6.23 ERA) finish their series with Milwaukee (Frankie Montas, 3.92 ERA) at 2:10 pm ET.

Monday

The Mets are off on Monday. The only notable game for the Mets is the Diamondbacks hosting the San Francisco Giants. The probable pitching matchup in that 9:40 pm ET showdown is Hayden Birdsong (4.74 ERA) for San Francisco and Eduardo Rodriguez (5.09 ERA) for Arizona. Remember, as it stands the Mets are one game back of Arizona, but do own the tiebreaker.

If the Mets can fend off the Phillies and Wheeler on Sunday night, the Phillies will take their magic number of one and head back to Citizens Bank Park, where they’ll look to win the National League East banner in front of a home crowd taking on the Washington Nationals.

Tuesday

The Mets open their series with Atlanta in Truist Park on Tuesday, which is the Mets’ current target date for the return of Francisco Lindor. The younger brother of injured Braves star Ronald Acuña Jr., Luisangel Acuña, has become one of baseball’s best stories while holding down Lindor’s spot. The Mets bats will look to keep hot against the Braves after scoring 28 runs in their last four games combined.

The Mets are anticipating the trio of Luis Severino, David Peterson, and Sean Manaea starting in Atlanta, and likely in that order. This would be far and away the biggest start of Severino’s Mets career, but the veteran righty is no stranger to big games. Severino has 43 2/3 playoff innings under his belt and is the Mets’ most playoff-experienced starter in this series.

On the other side, the Mets should expect to see Chris Sale as his regular rest would line him up for the opening game of the three-game set. This would also line him up for game 162, which could be huge for the Braves. Granted, Atlanta has yet to make a formal announcement, however, all signs point to Sale starting the first game of this series, which would give the Mets back-to-back games against the likely Cy Young winner and runner-up.

It will be pivotal for the Mets to win on Tuesday for a number of reasons. In a fairly possible scenario where they go into Atlanta only one game up in the standings, this creates some breathing room for themselves and gives the Mets a win over the Braves’ best starter. If they go into Atlanta just a game up and can win on Tuesday, their prospects of popping champagne in Georgia grow exponentially.

Note, the Diamondbacks are once again slated to face off against the Giants at 9:40 pm ET. The probable pitching matchup in that one is Logan Webb (3.58 ERA) versus Brandon Pfaadt (4.66 ERA).

Wednesday

The Mets will likely go with David Peterson on Wednesday. Peterson will be making easily the biggest start of his major league career, but he has also never been a front-line starter with this level of success before this year. Peterson’s only outing against the Braves this season came on July 28, an outing in which he allowed four runs over five innings. Peterson has had some big moments against Atlanta, including a pair of outings in 2022 in which he allowed just two runs over a combined 10 2/3 innings. The left-handed starter was tagged for four earned runs in less than four innings by the Phillies on Friday night.

Peterson will likely be opposed by Braves breakout rookie Spencer Schwellenbach; this if Atlanta indeed opts for Sale over the rookie in game one of the series. Schwellenbach owns a 3.61 ERA on the season and hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a game since July 21 (11 starts ago).

Wednesday becomes of even more significance to the Mets because there is a scenario where the Mets clinch a playoff berth. If the Mets win and the Braves lose on Sunday, their magic number drops to four. A win on Tuesday and Wednesday would give the Mets two additional games over the Braves in the standings, which would put them five up with five to go, and the Mets would hold the tiebreaker. This would mathematically eliminate the Braves from playoff contention, meaning the 2024 Mets would be October-bound.

While this is not the likely scenario, considering the Mets face Wheeler Sunday night while the Marlins appear to be running a bullpen game in their finale against the Braves, it would be the best one for the Mets.

In a nightmare scenario, where the Mets lose a game against the Braves on Sunday and lose game one of the series in Atlanta, this could be the game where the Braves can push ahead of the Mets in the standings. Whichever team wins two games of the series clinches the tiebreaker, which very well could decide which team goes to October and which one goes golfing.

Thursday

Thursday will be Sean Manaea’s day, who is coming off a dazzling start in his Citi Field finale on Saturday, going seven strong innings with only two major blemishes, solo homers to Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos. Manaea will face the final member of the trio of Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach, and Max Fried or Charlie Morton, and might make the biggest start of the year for the Mets.

Considering the history of these two teams, their recent bouts in playoff pushes, recent Met heartbreak in Atlanta, and plenty of other factors, it is fair to assume that this game will be the most important of the three. It feels unlikely that either team would take the first two from the other, so the tiebreaker might be hanging in the balance come Thursday. Manaea has been the Mets’ ace in 2024 and will need to give one more ace-like performance to get the Mets across the finish line.

In terms of clinching, there is a lot at play here. Through a number of different ways, the Mets could clinch a playoff spot on Thursday. So long as the Mets end play on Thursday at least three games up and with the tiebreaker over Atlanta in hand, they are into October.

This could happen in a number of different ways, so going through scenarios is a tad useless. In the end, the Mets must win two of three from Atlanta to secure the season series and likely a playoff spot. Their best starter this year is set to go in the final game and will be opposed by a formidable foe on the other side.  Thursday, to most people, does not feel that far away. But to a Mets fan, getting to Thursday might take years off life, and the unknown of what Thursday could look like is crippling.

The Rest

After the Mets and Braves series, whatever the outlook may be for both teams, each team will have three games remaining. The Mets will travel out to Milwaukee, who, as mentioned above, seem to be poised for that third seed in the National League, and have their pitchers on limits.

Meanwhile, the Braves will welcome in Kansas City and face a Royals team who will likely still be in the thick of the American League wild card race. As of Sunday morning, the Royals occupy the second wild card spot, but are only one game from the Detroit Tigers who are the first team on the outside looking in. In all likelihood, these three games will be huge for Kansas City; a great sign for the Mets.

If the Diamondbacks still factor into the equation by Friday, they’ll closing their season versus the current first wild card team the San Diego Padres.

 

The post Outlook Of The National League Wild Card Race appeared first on Metsmerized Online.