Tiny with sneaker sets
Hello Friends,
Skies were cloudy as the morning got started. Wind was coming from the WSW at 7-10 kts and the dead south swell was 1.5 metres but the typical period was a choppy 6 seconds when the MHL buoy recorded the data at 0600. However, looking at the directional spectrum plot there’s some very long period (and really small) long period component in the mix. That means the average, just barely catchable bumps will very occasionally be punctuated by something into the surfable range (see below). The long period means long lines shutting down exposed open stretches, so you’re going to be looking at your reefy south magnets. Wind will settle around to the NE this afternoon, so the earlier the better for your prospects. Tide was low at 0625 and will be back to the 1.64 metre high at 1305.
Tomorrow should see showers developing and more northerly wind with swell perking up as the average periods start to stretch out into the 10+ second range. On Thursday it’s set to be S-SW going SE at 25-30 kts as the rain arrives along with around 3 metres of south swell. The GFS model predicts periods in the 7 second range on Thursday, but on Friday it shows intervals into the 12+ second range. So that should be on the big side. Unfortunately surf options will be severely limited by the predicted SE wind. Oh, and we could see up to 35mm of rain. So, a bit of a write-off for Friday from the looks of things. Might be good on Saturday though…
Have a great Tuesday everyone!
Weather Situation
A cold front passed well to the south of the state, extending a weak trough to the south coast, while a broad high pressure system over the state is entering the Tasman Sea. Winds will become northerly today as the trough weakens while the high strengthens over the Tasman Sea. Then, a strong cold front is forecast to cross the coastal waters midweek, bringing a strong and gusty southerly wind change in its wake.
Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
- Winds
- West to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots becoming variable about 10 knots in the middle of the day then becoming north to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the early afternoon. Winds reaching up to 25 knots offshore in the late evening.
- Seas
- Around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 metres later in the evening.
- Swell
- Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
- Weather
- Mostly sunny.
Wednesday 25 September
- Winds
- Northerly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots offshore early in the morning. Winds shifting west to southwesterly in the evening.
- Seas
- 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning, then increasing to 1 to 2 metres around midday.
- Swell
- Southerly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
- Weather
- Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers.
Thursday 26 September
- Winds
- South to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots tending south to southeasterly 25 to 30 knots during the morning, reaching up to 35 knots offshore during the afternoon and evening.
- Seas
- 1 to 2 metres, increasing to 2.5 to 3 metres during the morning.
- Swell
- Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 2 to 4 metres during the afternoon.
- Weather
- Cloudy. 95% chance of rain.
- Caution
- Large and powerful surf conditions in the evening are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.