MLB Playoffs: National League Preview
Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani helped lead the Dodgers to the top seed in the NL. Is this the season where they break through and return to the World Series.
It took a controversial decision by MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred and a devastating hurricane but finally, we have a set National League postseason field for the 2024 Playoffs.
How about that doubleheader, huh?
After 162 games, six teams are left standing for a trip to represent the NL in the Fall Classic. The Dodgers and Phillies earned byes past the wild card round thanks to finishing with the two best records in the league, while the Milwaukee Brewers, winners of the Central, punched their postseason ticket for the sixth time in seven years. The San Diego Padres rode a red-hot second half to the first wild card slot, with the Braves and Mets splitting their Monday doubleheader, earning Atlanta the No. 5 and New York the No. 6 slots.
So before we settle down for the Mets in Milwaukee and the Padres hosting the Braves, let’s break down each of the six teams in the NL field.
1) Los Angeles Dodgers
2024 Record: 98-64 (NL West Champions)
Wild Card Matchup: N/A (first-round bye; will play winner of ATL vs. SD)
Manager: Dave Roberts
Team MVP: Shohei Ohtani, DH
Last World Series Win: 2020
There is no way anyone other than Shohei Ohtani wins NL MVP this year. Becoming a member of the 50/50 Club is unfathomable, and lest we forget that next year he’s going to add pitching back to his repertoire. Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Teoscar Hernandez provide the most frightening top-of-the-order in baseball, ably aided by one of the best offensive catchers in Will Smith, and role players Gavin Lux, Max Muncy and Miguel Rojas.
However, the Dodgers Achilles’ heel is a starting rotation that suffered a devastating injury when ace Tyler Glasnow injured his elbow, forcing him to miss the rest of the season. In the Division Series, it’s likely Jack Flaherty, acquired in a mid-season trade from the playoff-bound Detroit Tigers, has had a very good season, but is not the most solid Game 1 starter among the other NL postseason rosters. Some combination of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Walker Buehler and Landon Knack are expected to fill out the rest of the postseason rotation.
The bullpen has been an up-and-down unit, but find me one that hasn’t this year. Evan Phillips leads the team with 18 saves while Daniel Hudson has 10. Alex Vesia, Blake Treinen and Joe Kelly are likely to see high leverage situations, and the team called up 22-year-old flame thrower Edgard Henriquez, who usually throws in the upper 90s but has reportedly touched 104mph in the minors. Heck, even Ohtani’s name has been mentioned as a possibility in the playoffs. The Dodgers lead all postseason teams with 29 blown saves this season.
The Dodgers enter as the likely favorites, with homefield advantage throughout the postseason.
2) Philadelphia Phillies
2024 Record: 95-67 (NL East Champions)
Wild Card Matchup: N/A (first-round bye; will play winner of NYM vs. MIL)
Manager: Rob Thomson
Team MVP: Zack Wheeler, RHP
Last World Series Win: 2008
After racing out to a 62-34 first half record, the Phils played just .500 ball since the All Star break, but never saw their lead in the NL East dip below five games. Carried by three All-Star starters, Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Cristopher Sanchez, and a struggling but playoff-tested Ranger Suarez as the No. 4, Phils pitchers go deeper into games than most, making them especially dangerous in October. This is the best rotation in the NL, bar-none.
Offensively, the lineup is loaded with stars. Bryce Harper has authored a slew of postseason memories the last two years, as have Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, Nick Castellanos and Trea Turner. Alec Bohm emerged as a young star in 2024, and manager Rob Thomson will use platoons at second base with Bryson Stott and Edmundo Sosa as well as in the outfield with Austin Hays, Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas others. The problem is this lineup can go from hot-to-cold with little to no warning. Offensive slumps doomed the Phillies in the 2022 World Series and ‘23 NLCS, and fans are hoping it doesn’t happen a third time.
The Philles would seemingly have a bullpen advantage over most teams they face, with four potential closers in Carlos Estevez, Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm and Orion Kerkering, not to mention postseason hero Jose Alvarado, who has stumbled a bit this year. Those will be Rob Thomson’s core five relievers. They also play in baseball’s best homefield advantage, Citizens Bank Park, a difficult environment for any team (unless it’s Game 6 or 7 of an NLCS, apparently!).
3) Milwaukee Brewers
2024 Record: 93-69 (NL Central Champions)
Wild Card Matchup: Home vs. New York Mets
Manager: Pat Murphy
Team MVP: William Contreras, C
Last World Series Win: N/A
When you think of the elite teams in the National League over the last decade, the Brewers are not the first team that jumps to mind, but they should at least be in the conversation. Winners of the NL Central for the third time in four years, they are playing postseason baseball for the sixth time in seven seasons, and doing it without manager Craig Counsell this time around, who left the team for the Chicago Cubs last off-season.
Maybe it wasn’t the manager.
Milwaukee’s biggest weakness is the starting rotation. After trading Corbin Burnes to the Orioles this off-season and the injury to Brandon Woodruff, they survived with ace Freddy Peralta fronting a rotation that won’t scare many people this October. Tobias Myers has been solid, while Aaron Civale and Frankie Montas will not give the Brewers an advantage in any Game 3 or 4 situation.
The strength lies in the bullpen and their defense. Devin Williams is a monster with a late lead, supported by Trevor Megill, Jared Koenig, Aaron Ashby, Joel Payamps and lefty-killer Hoby Milner. If they can get 5-6 decent innings out of their starters, that may be enough. And even though they lost Christian Yelich to a season-ending back injury, There is speed at the top of the lineup with Brice Turang and Jackson Chourio, and some decent power with William Contreras, Willy Adames and Rhys Hoskins. It is not a lineup with the star power of Los Angeles, Philadelphia or San Diego, but they can score.
4) San Diego Padres
2024 Record: 93-69
Wild Card Matchup: Home vs. Atlanta Braves
Manager: Mike Shildt
Team MVP: Jackson Merrill, OF
Last World Series Win: N/A
After reaching the National League Championship Series in 2022, the Padres stumbled last year but bounced back in 2024 by clinching the top wild card spot thanks to a blistering second half. They are one of the hottest teams entering the tournament thanks to a powerful lineup featuring three players with 20+ home runs – Manny Machado, Jurickson Profar, Jackson Merrill and Fernando Tatis Jr. They also have one of the best contact hitters in Luis Arraez, Xander Bogaerts (who has had a down year) and Jake Cronenworth to fill the gaps. In all, it’s one of the best in the Majors.
They’re also featuring a solid starting rotation that matches up with just about anyone else’s in baseball. Dylan Cease, Yu Darvish and Michael King are likely to get the ball in the wild card series, but it’s unclear in what order. Joe Musgrove will also get the ball in the divisional round, if they get that far. It’s a solid group with postseason experience and plenty of stuff to go around.
In the ‘pen, Robert Suarez entered September as one of the most dominant closers in the NL, but three blown saves this month has some folks a tad concerned. There are a slew of other relievers destroying folks this year, though. Jeremiah Estrada, Adrian Morejon, Tanner Scott and Jason Adam all have ERAs under 3.00. This may be the hottest team entering the dance, and if you’re looking for a wild card team to pick to go all the way, this would be the one.
5) Atlanta Braves
2024 Record: 89-73
Wild Card Matchup: Away vs. San Diego Padres
Manager: Brian Snitker
Team MVP: Chris Sale, LHP
Last World Series Win: 2021
How about that doubleheader, huh? Can’t we do something like that every year?
The Braves may not have won the division for the first time in six years, but this is the most resilient and gritty team they’ve had in the last seven years, and if manager Brian Snitker won Manager of the Year, it would be well earned. How else do you explain reaching the postseason after losing Cy Young favorite Spence Strider in the first two weeks of the season, or MVP candidates Ronald Acuna, Jr. and Austin Riley for months on end? Michael Harris II and Ozzie Albies also missed significant time, and the Braves have been forced to rely on castoffs like Whit Merrifield, Ramon Laureano, and Gio Urshela.
We knew coming into the season that the bats were never going to replicate 2023’s dominance, but Matt Olson’s slow start and Orlando Arcia’s inability to recreate last year’s numbers hampered the offense even further with the loss of their other mega stars.
Pitching-wise, the Braves are led by Cy Young favorite Chris Sale, putting together a healthy and productive season for the first time since his last All Star campaign in 2018 with Boston. He claimed the NL’s Triple Crown, leading the league in wins (18), ERA (2.38) and strikeouts (225), however, after staying healthy the entire season, he was scratched from Game 2 of Monday’s must-win doubleheader and will miss the wild card series with a back injury, just another injury log to throw on the fire for the snake-bitten Braves.
Max Fried remains one of the better left-handed starters in baseball, rookie Spencer Schwellenbach had a breakout season, and veterans Reynaldo Lopez and Charlie Morton have been pretty good, too, although Lopez was pushed in the doubleheader as well and may not be available in the wild card round.
Closer Raisel Iglesias put together perhaps the best relief performance by anyone in baseball this season, with Joe Jinenez, Pierce Johnson and Luke Jackson the top arms from the right side. Lefties Aaron Bummer and Dylan Lee will be called on to neutralize tough left-handers as best they can.
6) New York Mets
2024 Record: 89-73
Wild Card Matchup: Away vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Manager: Carlos Mendoza
Team MVP: Francisco Lindor, SS
Last World Series Win: 1986
On Wednesday, May 29, the Mets fell to the Dodgers 10-3, the culmination of a three-game sweep that dropped them to 4-14 in their last 18 games. They were 22-33, 16 games out of first place in the NL East, in 4th place. Four months later, they’re playing postseason baseball and enter October as that red-hot wild card team no one wants to face.
New York can point its renaissance to the starting pitching, their top-five starters all possessing ERAs under 4.00. Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana, David Peterson and Tylor Megill are all pitching fantastic baseball heading into October and give the Mets a fighting chance against anyone they encounter. The bullpen has had its ups and downs, although closer Edwin Diaz is one of the better 9th inning arms, capable of multi-inning saves as well. It is a right-handed heavy bullpen, with Jose Butto, Phil Maton, Reed Garrett, Ryne Stanek and Adam Ottavino, and Alex Young are your lefties.
As for the lineup, it’s a solid group that has been scoring consistently in the second half. Francisco Lindor made a late push for MVP consideration, Jose Iglesias, third baseman Mark Vientos, and veterans Brandon Nimmo and Pete Alonso have powered the offense for the last two months. J.D. Martinez is riding the struggle bus, but remains a dangerous bat if he wakes up. All but one hitting in the lineup has an OPS over .700.
All in all, this is as wide open a NL playoff field as we’ve seen in years. How will Monday’s doubleheader between the Mets and Braves affect the wild card round, and what will that mean for the Phillies and Dodgers, who will sit this week out before revving the engines up this Saturday?
Should be a fun week.