The US economy teeters after it's hit by a triple threat: Middle East escalation, port closures, and Hurricane Helene
Pacific Press
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Good morning. JD Vance and Tim Walz displayed their best versions of Midwest Nice last night as they raced to appeal to moderate voters, BI's Brent D. Griffiths writes. In what was largely a civil discussion, the pair didn't trade serious blows ... until the end.
In today's big story, the market reacts to the escalating situation between Israel and Iran.
What's on deck:
- Markets: China's stimulus package was a good start, but there's more work to be done.
- Tech: Amazon's "safer than ChatGPT" chatbot for employees.
- Business: High interest rates and hidden fees mean it's a particularly bad time to be carrying credit-card debt.
But first, a trifecta of economic trouble.
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The big story
An attack, a strike, a hurricane
REUTERS/Amir Cohen
A Middle East conflict escalates. A dockworkers strike begins. A hurricane's devastation continues.
In a word: Chaos.
In less than a week, three crises have complicated the path forward for the US economy just as things seemed to be back on track.
Let's start in the Middle East, where Iran launched a massive missile attack on Israel.
The strike, which reportedly included nearly 200 missiles, came after the Israeli military killed Hamas and Hezbollah leaders. It appears to have largely been an "ineffective" attack; as was the case earlier this year, US Navy warships shot down multiple Iranian missiles.
Geopolitical risks were already a top-of-mind concern for investors, particularly after last year's October 7 attacks in Israel. But markets reacted sharply to reports of Iran's imminent attack, with major indices dropping and safe-haven assets like gold climbing.
Meanwhile, oil prices surged, a U-turn from a recent slump following reports Saudi Arabia would ramp up supply.
Back in the States, a dockworkers strike could upend an economy finally on the mend.
Tuesday morning marked the start of a dockworkers strike that will shutter dozens of US ports that handle about half of all US ocean imports. Depending on who you ask, the shutdown's daily economic cost could be anywhere from $540 million to upwards of $4 billion and has plenty of knock-on effects.
The tipping point appears to be the two-week mark. If the strike extends beyond that, the impact gets exponentially worse. Should things continue past a month, the economy could slip into a recession, according to one researcher.
The entire saga is also set to crown winners (air cargo businesses) and losers (shipping container companies) in the market as companies work to find alternate supply-chain routes.
It's all happening while the Southeast grapples with the wreckage left by Hurricane Helene, which killed more than 100 people. Some roads and highways are impassable or difficult to navigate, creating more supply-chain issues.
As terrifying as this is for an economy trying to hit its stride, it's not hopeless. The Iranian attack was largely thwarted, and the dockworkers strike could be short-lived.
But it's a reminder of the fine line the economy is balancing as it tries to finally nail its soft landing.
News brief
Top headlines
- A top US security official says America will make sure Iran faces 'severe consequences' for escalating its conflict with Israel.
- The biggest moments from JD Vance's and Tim Walz's first and only faceoff.
- Exclusive: Health startup Roon is raising $15 million from Sequoia to replace 'Dr. Google.'
- This iPhone feature is 'saving lives' during Hurricane Helene aftermath.
3 things in markets
Tyler Le/BI
- A spike in electric demand will send these energy stocks surging. Power consumption is on the rise in the US, thanks to everything from AI to the electrification of transportation. Bank of America identified five sleepy utility stocks, like Sempra and Northwestern Energy, that stand to benefit.
- A Bridgewater vet is launching his own fund. Paul Podolsky, who spent 15 years at Bridgewater Associates, plans to go live with Kate Capital on November 1. The $200 million fund will maintain between 50 and 60 positions across the globe.
- China needs a two-step to avoid deflation. Chinese markets have been riding high thanks to Beijing's recent stimulus efforts, but the country risks falling into a deflationary lull, a Yale economist warned. It now needs fiscal stimulus and structural reform to stave off that fate.
3 things in tech
Business Insider/Samantha Lee
- Musk & Co. could get their mojo back. Wall Street expects some good news for Tesla ahead of its robotaxi reveal on October 10: Q3 vehicle deliveries exceeding expectations. That's thanks in part to strong demand in China.
- One fix could save Google's ad biz. Things have been looking grim for the search giant ever since the DOJ and 17 state attorneys general launched an antitrust suit against its ad business. But one research firm argues Google could save it by converting it to a spin-off business worth $150 billion.
- Meet Cedric, Amazon's AI chatbot that's SFW. According to internal documents obtained by BI, Amazon workers are encouraged to use the new internal chatbot that's "safer than ChatGPT." Cedric's launch is aimed at boosting employee productivity and job satisfaction, the documents state.
3 things in business
Getty Images; Jenny Chang-Rodriguez
- Hey Airbnb, welcome to my crib. Gen Z has a new side hustle: Airbnb superhosting. On TikTok and Instagram, precocious twenty-somethings not-so-humbly brag about subletting their rentals, and promise to show you how to get rich like them. Critics — and in some cases, the law — be damned.
- Your credit card is overcharging you. It's easy for consumers to be lured in by credit-card companies' glitzy rewards and points. But with the average credit-card interest rate now over 21% — and the hidden fees to boot — card issuers have the power to exploit consumers like never before.
- The real reason Amazon ordered RTO. Amazon's RTO mandate might be a move to cut headcount without the consequences of formal layoffs, Stanford economist Nicholas Bloom told BI. It's a "backdoor layoff" strategy that could cut costs but risks harming areas like AI, where recruiting top talent is tough.
In other news
- New York mag's Olivia Nuzzi accuses her ex-fiancé of blackmail amid the RFK Jr. scandal.
- DirecTV's CEO says its Dish acquisition 'isn't so much about bullying' media giants — but it's definitely about playing hardball.
- Not hearing back on job applications? Some career consultants suggest a bold new tactic.
What's happening today
- New York City mayor Eric Adams appears in court on charges of bribery and fraud.
- G7 interior ministers meet.
- Earth's temporary "micro moon" is visible.
The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Milan Sehmbi, fellow, in London. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York.