Why Are Swing State Voters Supporting Abortion Rights—But Also Trump?

At Tuesday’s vice presidential debate, JD Vance lied that he’s never supported a national abortion ban and has only ever supported “some minimum national standard”—which is the same thing. Donald Trump, who frequently boasts about being the one to kill Roe v. Wade, but for months has dodged questions about whether he'd impose a national ban, simultaneously posted the lie, “EVERYONE KNOWS I WOULD NOT SUPPORT A FEDERAL ABORTION BAN, UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES, AND WOULD, IN FACT, VETO IT.” Faced with the vast electoral unpopularity of their abortion bans, this new strategy—that Republicans reject a national ban and support a “minimum national standard,” or “reasonable federal restrictions,” as Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) recently put it—has become Republicans’ go-to line. But whether it's a six-week "federal restriction" or a 20-week "limit," it's all still a national abortion ban.

Unfortunately, as Politico’s Alice Miranda Ollstein reports, new polls show this strategy has potential and might even be working. Fox News polls from the end of August and September show that in competitive states like Arizona, Nevada, and Florida, large swaths of voters support both Trump and abortion rights ballot measures. The same appears to be true in Missouri and South Dakota. This is concerning to say the least given that voting for Trump would automatically undo the act of voting for the state-level right to abortion.

Despite Trump’s best attempts at assurances to the contrary, his deep connections to the far-right Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 make clear he’d try to enact a national abortion ban. Or, sorry, a "minimal national standard." Project 2025 specifically outlines how a Republican president—aka, Trump—could wield the Comstock Act to bypass Congress and impose said ban. That also makes Trump’s promise to not sign a national ban from Congress pretty toothless, given that if he invokes the Comstock Act, he wouldn’t need Congress to send him one at all.

Nonetheless, polling suggests voters in key battleground states are either unaware or not considering this. In Arizona, where abortion is currently banned at 15 weeks, the measure to enshrine a right to abortion until fetal viability has 72% support, while Trump polls two points ahead of Kamala Harris. In Nevada, the abortion rights ballot measure has 75% support while Harris and Trump are neck-and-neck, with Harris beating him by two points. In Florida, where abortion is banned at six weeks, Trump beats Harris 47% to 42%, all while the state’s abortion rights ballot measure has 58% support. (The measure needs 60% of the vote to succeed under Florida law.) 

In July, polls in Florida showed a whopping 69% of voters supported the state's abortion ballot measure, but also supported Trump over Harris by five points. Another poll of Florida voters from June showed abortion is substantially more popular than Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, by a 69 to 52% margin.

Vance tries to back away from his past support for federal abortion restrictions.

Trump claims he would veto a national ban.

Dems are rushing to tell voters that it's BS, but battleground state polls show the GOP's abortion rebrand might be working.https://t.co/y13oPj4Qg6

— Alice Miranda Ollstein (@AliceOllstein) October 3, 2024

Missouri and South Dakota aren’t exactly swing states, but interestingly, in the deep-red state of Missouri, a ballot measure to enshrine a right to abortion has 52% support, while Trump is beating Harris 54% to 41%. In South Dakota, also a Republican stronghold, a ballot measure to protect a right to abortion through the first trimester with some restrictions beyond that point has 53.4% support; the same poll found registered voters who support Trump supported the amendment 53% to 42% who opposed it.

Kelly Hall, executive director of the Fairness Project, previously explained to Jezebel that large swaths of voters don’t see certain political issues like abortion from a partisan perspective: “A lot of our political coverage is presented through this partisan lens with voters thinking of themselves as ‘red’ or ‘blue,’ but people support a lot of different issues across the spectrum regardless of political identity,” Hall said. “We’re seeing overwhelming support for abortion rights, record-shattering numbers of people saying ‘we want to vote on this issue ourselves and this shouldn’t be political football.’” 

Mainstream outlets gave Trump the *exact* headline he was looking for, congratulations. Now ask him if he'd veto a 'minimum national standard' - and ask him how that's different than an abortion ban.

Hint: It's not.

Do your jobs. pic.twitter.com/tzBgYOEWyO

— Jessica Valenti (@JessicaValenti) October 2, 2024

If voters are unaware of the minutiae of all of this, mainstream media outlets certainly aren’t helping. On Wednesday, Abortion author Jessica Valenti posted a screenshot of headlines from Politico, the Wall Street Journal, CNN, and CBS News, all taking Trump Tuesday's Truth social post that he'd veto a national ban at face value. It’s similar to the embarrassing state of media coverage we saw in July, when the GOP released their official 2024 platform and didn’t explicitly call for a national ban, prompting the same outlets to frame that omission as the GOP “softening” its extreme position on abortion. Of course, the platform called for fetal personhood, which is more insidious and, in some ways, worse. 

For years, Republicans assured us that overturning Roe was their end goal and nothing more. Instead, since 2022, anti-abortion lawmakers have been pushing to expand the reach of state abortion bans to include police surveillance and prevent interstate abortion travel. As recently as 2023, Vance himself signed a letter asserting that law enforcement has a right to access traveling abortion patients’ medical data. 

No matter what Republicans say, they’re never going to stop their war on abortion. It’s terrifying how many swing state voters don’t seem to grasp this.