College Football Playoff projections: Boise State with pole position for Group of Five berth as BYU remains on the bubble
Expansion of the College Football Playoff is arguably the greatest competitive change in the sport’s history — more significant than the move from the Bowl Championship Series to the four-team CFP a decade ago. Each week, the Hotline will dive into the 12-team CFP race with a look at the frontrunners, bubble teams and key developments across the landscape.
Week 6 brought the wildest Saturday in eight years to college football, but here’s something even wilder: The dizzying events will have only a nominal impact on the postseason.
Four teams in the top 11 of the Associated Press poll (No. 1 Alabama, No. 4 Tennessee, No. 10 Michigan and No. 11 USC) lost to unranked opponents — the first time such mayhem has occurred since 2016. But none of them were eliminated from the College Football Playoff race.
The expanded event offers teams a second chance and, in some cases, a third.
For that reason, the 12-team CFP will lead to more teams playing meaningful games late in the season than the sport has experienced. Ever.
USC offers a prime example. The Trojans were outplayed by Minnesota in the fourth quarter and flew home with a 24-17 loss — their second defeat of the season.
But they maintain a path into the CFP courtesy of the automatic bids assigned to the five highest-ranked conference champions.
Run the table, and the Trojans could reach the Big Ten championship game. Win that, and they are in the CFP.
Also in the hunt: Arizona, which lost at Kansas State last month and to Texas Tech over the weekend. But the two-loss Wildcats haven’t been eliminated from the Big 12 title race and, as a result, retain a path into the CFP.
Expansion has added a dimension to the regular season that never existed but was much needed.
To the projections …
Automatic bids
The five highest-ranked conference champions will receive automatic bids to the CFP, with the top four earning opening-round byes. The best team from the Group of Five will be seeded according to its ranking.
No. 1 Texas (SEC). After much debate and analysis, the Hotline’s crack research staff gave the Longhorns a slight edge over Vanderbilt for the top overall seed.
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten). Big Ten teams have not fared well when crossing multiple time zones thus far. Will Ohio State buck the trend in Eugene?
No. 3 Miami (ACC). While largely ignored because of the comeback, the Hurricanes displayed some mighty poor clock management by not calling timeout prior to the two-minute stoppage.
No. 4. Utah (Big 12). If the Utes lose this week at Arizona State, we might begin to consider the possibility of another team winning the conference.
No. 5. Boise State (Group of Five). If there’s a debate to be had over the best Group of Five team, we know how ESPN would vote (if it had an official vote). Call it the Ashton Jeanty Effect.
At-large qualifiers
The seven highest-ranked non-champions will receive at-large bids. There is no limit to the number of at-large teams from a particular conference.
ACC: Clemson. With Miami dominating the ACC oxygen, the Tigers are quietly rolling toward a berth in the championship game.
Big 12: None. Parity is great for weekly thrills but bad for claiming postseason berths.
Big Ten: Oregon and Penn State. In case the Ducks and Nittany Lions tie for second place, know this: They don’t play each other but have seven common opponents (UCLA, Ohio State, Purdue, Illinois, Maryland, Wisconsin and Washington).
Independents: Notre Dame. It will take 11-1 for the Irish to make the at-large pool, but that is hardly unmanageable. With each passing week, the schedule looks softer.
SEC: Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee. Look for the committee to partly, if not entirely, discount the Vols’ loss to Arkansas without injured quarterback Nico Iamaleava — assuming they perform at a playoff level when he returns.
Bubble teams
Expansion of the CFP has created room for a bubble comparable to the NCAA Tournament. The size of the bubble will ebb and flow throughout the season based on the latest results.
ACC: Pittsburgh and SMU. Once you get past Miami and Clemson, the drop-off in ACC contenders is as steep as El Capitan.
Big 12: Brigham Young, Iowa State, Kansas State and Texas Tech. There could be four different schools listed here next week given the scope of the Big 12 mayhem.
Big Ten: Indiana and Nebraska. We are approaching the midway point of the regular season, and the Hoosiers have two fewer losses than Michigan.
SEC: LSU, Mississippi and Texas A&M. With their wipeout of Missouri, the Aggies have climbed out of the hole created by the season-opening loss to Notre Dame.
Projected matchups
The No. 5 through 12 seeds will play opening-round games on the campus of the higher seed, with the winners advancing to the quarterfinals on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. (The semifinals are Jan. 9 and 10, followed by the championship game 10 days later.)
No. 8 Alabama vs. No. 9 Penn State. Had Alabama lost to Vanderbilt in the four-team playoff era, we would have spent the next two months listening to ESPN analysts debate the Crimson Tide’s merits under various hypothetical situations. So thank goodness for expansion. Winner plays No. 1 Texas.
No. 7 Tennessee vs. No. 10 Notre Dame. There are a few opponents Notre Dame could beat as the road team in the opening round. Tennessee isn’t one of them. Winner plays No. 2 Ohio State.
No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 11 Clemson. If the ACC snags an at-large berth — and to be clear, we are far from convinced of that endgame — there’s a good chance it will be the last one (i.e., the 11th seed). Winner plays No. 3 Miami.
No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 12 Boise State. Worth noting that Army and Navy are undefeated and in contention for the Group of Five berth at this point. If that state of affairs holds into late November, all the better for college football. Winner plays No. 4 Utah.
Looking ahead: Week 7
Each week, the Hotline will examine a handful of games that figure to impact the CFP race for automatic and at-large bids.
(All times Pacific)
Texas vs. Oklahoma (12:30 p.m. on ABC). The Red River Rivalry unfolds against the backdrop of an SEC existence for both. But only one of them, Texas, has a manageable path into the playoff.
Penn State at USC (12:30 p.m. on CBS). The visitors can afford a loss; the hosts cannot.
Ohio State at Oregon (4:30 p.m. on NBC). The game of the year in college football that doesn’t feature SEC heavyweights facing each other.
Mississippi at LSU (4:30 p.m. on ABC). This collision of one-loss teams is effectively a CFP elimination game for the loser.
Iowa State at West Virginia (5 p.m. on Fox). The best game in the Big 12 this week, unless it’s Utah-Arizona State, Arizona-BYU or Kansas State-Colorado.
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