Why Tampa Is Especially Vulnerable to Hurricane Milton 

Tampa Mayor Jane Castor is warning residents to listen to evacuation orders amid the looming threat of Hurricane Milton, which the National Weather Service (NWS) warns could be the worst storm to impact the Tampa area in more than a century. The city is especially susceptible to hurricane damage due to its low-lying topography.

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“Everyone in the Tampa Bay region needs to stay aware of what’s happening with Hurricane Milton and you need to follow the evacuation orders,” Castor told CBS News. “If Milton stays on the designated path, it will be catastrophic.” 

The Tampa Mayor’s Office did not immediately respond to TIME’s request for comment. 

While the city has survived other tropical storms over the years, Hurricane Milton, a category 5 storm which is set to make landfall in Florida on Wednesday, is concerning because Tampa is vulnerable to storm surges due to its shallow waters. Milton’s storm surge is forecasted to raise water levels by eight to 12 feet in Tampa Bay, if peak surge happens during the high tide.

“The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves,” the NWS said in its most-recent public advisory.

Tampa, like many other coastal communities, has been susceptible to sea level rises caused by climate change over the past few years. The 2010 Statewide Regional Evacuation Study for Tampa Bay found that 2 million people live in what would be considered an evacuation zone if a Category 5 hurricane impacted the Tampa region, per Yale Climate Connections. That same study found that a hurricane of Milton’s magnitude would cause some 2,000 deaths. It would also cost the city $250 billion in damages.  

The storm comes as Florida recovers from the impact of Hurricane Helene, and residents are still leaving their storm debris for collection. Gov. Ron DeSantis issued a state of emergency Saturday afternoon, and the state has mandatory evacuation orders in place for four counties, including Hillsborough County, where Tampa is located. 

As of Monday afternoon, Hurricane Milton was  about 700 miles southwest of Tampa. With winds measuring 175 mph that will have level 4 wind threat impact on the greater Tampa Bay area, according to the NWS, the storm could cause wall and roof failure in buildings, the destruction of mobile homes, power outages, and tree falls. 

The last hurricane to directly impact Tampa Bay was the Tarpon Springs Hurricane of 1921. As a Category 3 storm, it caused eight deaths, an 11-foot surge and cost $10 million in damages (worth nearly $180 million today when accounting for inflation).

Hurricane Milton will bring flooding that is expected to impact both primary and secondary roads, parking lots, buildings and homes. Rescues could also be necessary, according to the NWS. 

The NWS is advising Tampa Bay residents to evacuate if told to do so, and to finish all hurricane prep by Tuesday night. Tolls are being suspended across multiple counties over the next week to speed travel flow as people evacuate. 

The Florida Department of Transportation will be updating local traffic and road blockages and closures on their website.