Wisconsin Senate Race Shifts to 'Toss Up' as Incumbent Tammy Baldwin Slips: Cook Political Report

A new rating from the Cook Political Report has shifted the Senate race in battleground Wisconsin from "lean Democrat" to a "toss up," as incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D.) loses ground to her Republican challenger.

The shift towards the right comes after recent polling from the nonpartisan election forecaster indicated Republican candidate Eric Hovde is gaining on Baldwin. After maintaining a 7-percentage-point lead over her challenger in Cook’s August survey, new polling found Baldwin now only has a 2-percentage-point advantage, 49 percent to 47 percent.

Internal polling from both parties reflected the Cook Political Report's findings, indicating that this race is within the margin of error, the Cook Political Report said Tuesday.

"I wish I had better news, but four recent polls show this race statistically tied," Baldwin said last month. "Our Senate majority will come down to Wisconsin."

Baldwin, trying to win over Donald Trump Republicans and regain her lead, recently campaigned in rural red counties to recruit what she calls "Trump-Tammy voters"—Wisconsinites whom she hopes will vote for her and the former president. In 2016, however, Baldwin claimed that these Trump voters were "failing [a] moral test" by backing the Republican candidate in that election.

Split-ticket voters are predicted to have a significant influence on the Senate election in Wisconsin, where presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Trump are currently tied in the polls. About 10 percent of Wisconsin voters split their ticket between Baldwin and Republican gubernatorial candidate Scott Walker when the senator won in 2018, Baldwin told the New York Times.

With only four weeks until Election Day, Wisconsin’s Senate race has become the closest of the five battlegrounds the Cook Political Report polled. The results could determine party control of the upper chamber next year.

Hovde’s gains have come from rallying Republicans behind him and bringing independents over to his side, according to the Cook Political Report. Hovde has seen an 11-percentage-point gain among independents since August.

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