Trump’s Troubles Grow as Poll Shows Harris Support Rising in Key Group

Kamala Harris has taken a slim lead over Donald Trump over the past month, according to a new poll from The New York Times and Siena College. And that may be in part thanks to rising support among a critical voter group.

Nine percent of people who describe themselves as Republicans said they plan to vote for Harris in November, compared to just 5 percent who said the same thing in the Times poll last month. Harris also has a narrow lead overall against Trump of 49 to 46 percent, with voters more likely to choose her over the former president as caring about people like them and representing change.

This is the first Times/Siena poll in which Harris has led Trump in the race ever since President Biden withdrew and the vice president succeeded him. Last month’s poll had Trump and Harris deadlocked at 47 percent each after the first presidential debate, which Harris was widely seen as winning.

Harris has also taken her first lead in the question of which candidate represents change in the race, with 46 percent of respondents giving her the edge over 44 percent for Trump. The gap widens among younger voters, with 58 percent choosing her versus 34 percent for Trump. The poll has her in the lead as the more fun candidate, as well—43 percent of likely voters, including 13 percent of Republicans, give her the edge over Trump (with just 35 percent).

Trump still has an 11-point advantage over Harris among male voters, and 42 percent of voters overall said his policies helped them personally, compared to 22 percent for Biden. And he retains trust, with 48 percent of voters saying they trust him to handle the issue they see as most important, as opposed to Harris, with 46 percent.

The poll was conducted from September 29 to October 6 among 3,385 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.4 percent, and shows that the presidential race is incredibly close with the election less than a month away. Harris has made incredible strides to take a narrow lead and is even winning over key voters in battleground states, such as Hispanic voters in Georgia and Arizona.

But there’s still more work to be done to ensure Harris wins key battleground states like Pennsylvania and therefore the presidency. A key group of people to target could be those left out of polls like this: people who didn’t vote in 2020. While 2020 had the highest voter turnout of any election since 1900, one-third of eligible voters didn’t vote, and the Trump campaign is actively courting them. Recent polls show that Harris could gain a major edge with a cease-fire in Gaza and an arms embargo against Israel.