Donald Trump likely won’t win Coachella. So why is he campaigning there?

Trying to find Republicans in Coachella is like trying to find Dodgers fans in San Francisco — they’re there, but they’re vastly outnumbered.

So why is Donald Trump speaking at a campaign rally Saturday, Oct. 12, just outside the heavily Latino city — 29 days before the Nov. 5 election — where more than half of voters are registered Democrats and 78% of voters chose Joe Biden in 2020?

Mike Madrid, a Republican political consultant and expert on Latino political behavior, has an idea.

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“Trump recognizes that his rallies become ads that dominate the news cycle,” Madrid said via email.

“He’s not in Riverside County to win it. He’s there because it’s a larger crowd of supportive Republicans and Latinos than he could get in Maricopa County, Arizona.”

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More Latino voters watch “Fox than Univision and he’s focusing on precisely this demographic — third- and fourth-generation Latinos in the suburbs, not in the inner city,” Madrid added.

The rally will take place just outside Coachella, a working class city of roughly 42,000 southeast of Palm Springs. Ninety-eight percent of Coachella’s residents are Latino and 41% are foreign born.

Trump’s rally in California, a deep-blue state he’s all but certain to lose, is sandwiched between events the day before in Nevada and the day after in Arizona, both swing states that could determine whether Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris wins the White House.

“From the perspective of the Trump campaign, Coachella is Arizona-adjacent,” Marcia Godwin, a professor of public administration at the University of La Verne, said via email.

“He will be able to maximize appearances as (part of) a West Coast tour … The Coachella rally will feed into media coverage to try to boost attendance leading into his appearance in Prescott, Arizona.”

The Trump campaign, Godwin said, “will be striving for strong visuals and sound bites from both Trump and the attendees to blame Vice President Harris and Governor (Gavin) Newsom for anything and everything that might be ailing the state.”

Nevada and Arizona have large Latino populations. The GOP has made inroads with Latinos in recent years, and swing state polling shows Trump winning the votes of Latino men under age 50.

“Far removed from the immigrant experience, (these voters) are transforming the Latino vote from one driven in the past by immigration and racially focused issues to a new economic populist, pocketbook voter,” said Madrid, co-founder of the anti-Trump Lincoln Project and author of “The Latino Century: How America’s Largest Minority is Transforming Democracy.”

“These young men — 38% of Latino voters are under 30 years of age — are the fastest-growing group of blue-collar workers — a demographic that is becoming Republican faster than any group in America,” he said.

Rep. Raul Ruiz, D-Indio, who represents Coachella, appeared at an event Wednesday night, Oct. 9, in Palm Desert to denounce Trump’s visit.

“Under a second Trump administration, there is literally no place in America that would be harmed more than the Coachella Valley,” Ruiz, said in a written statement issued earlier in the week. “Donald Trump — and his policies — are an affront to everything that makes the Coachella Valley a vibrant community.”

Conservative southwest Riverside County Pastor Tim Thompson welcomes the rally, noting that more than 6 million Californians voted for Trump in 2020.

“I am sure that number will be much higher in 2024, which may be part of the reason President Trump will be in Coachella this weekend,” Thompson, who plans to be with Trump at a North Carolina event later this month, said via a text message.

While it’s not uncommon for protesters to picket Trump and Harris rallies, the chairperson of Democrats of the Desert said her club has no protest plans.

“We are laser focused on voting, getting out the vote and electing our candidates,” Marcie Maxwell said.

Trump’s rally will take place not far from the 41st Congressional District’s boundaries. Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Corona, who represents the 41st, is in a tight race with Democrat Will Rollins in a fight that could help determine which party controls Congress.

Calvert campaign spokesperson Calvin Moore said the campaign did not ask Trump to visit. Moore declined to say whether Calvert will be at Saturday’s rally.

Trump’s visit “further shows that Riverside County is the epicenter of California elections,” Riverside County GOP Chairman Matthew Dobler said via email.

“Republicans here are motivated to turn out and vote this election season,” Dobler wrote. “President Trump understands the importance of Congressman Ken Calvert in Congress to be a common sense leader for our community. His visit will bring a lot of energy to our region.”

The rally will be at Calhoun Ranch, which offers vacant lots for sale to real estate investors. The ranch belongs to the Haagen family, which also owns the Empire Polo Club in Indio where the Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival and Stagecoach Country Music Festival take place annually.

The Haagens also are big-money GOP donors. Since 2016, the Haagen Co. has contributed at least $400,000 to Trump’s reelection campaign, federal campaign finance records show. The Haagens also have donated hundreds of thousands of dollars to the Republican National Committee since 2004, records show.

Saturday’s rally is expected to have a heavy law enforcement presence, especially with Trump surviving two recent assassination attempts, including one at a Pennsylvania rally in July.

“It is local law enforcement responsible for the safety and security of our former President and the attendees of the rally,” Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco said via text. “We will ensure everyone involved arrives and departs safely without incident. There will be a zero tolerance for anyone interfering with that end goal.”

Without naming names, Bianco, a conservative Republican who endorsed Trump and is pondering a run for California governor in 2026, took exception to elected leaders criticizing Trump’s visit.

“Local electeds making reckless and inflammatory statements with the only intent to incite others is not only counter productive to our mission, but it is a nationwide embarrassment to the county of Riverside,” he said. “In the end, (the sheriff’s department) will do our best to protect everyone involved.”

Bianco will be at Saturday’s rally, the sheriff’s media office said.

“We ask our residents to be patient, understanding the security concerns surrounding the event, and give themselves plenty of time in their travels given the fact there will certainly be road closures and major traffic delays,” sheriff’s officials said via email.

Saturday’s 5 p.m. rally will occur on a day when temperatures are expected to be in the high 90s or low 100s. Extreme heat has been an issue at prior Trump rallies, with The Washington Post reporting in August that at least 78 people at Trump rallies were hospitalized for heat-related illnesses this summer.

The Riverside County Fire Department and ambulance company American Medical Response will be at the rally to handle medical calls, county spokesperson Brooke Federico said via email.

She recommended that rally guests drink lots of water, wear hats and sunscreen as well as loose, lightly colored clothing to avoid heat-related problems.

Among those planning to go to the rally is 62-year-old Murrieta resident John Leonard.

Leonard, a registered Republican who works for a military subcontractor, attended a 2016 Trump rally in Irvine.

“It was a wonderful experience all around,” he said.

Leonard said to expect the unexpected at Saturday’s event.

“A significant part of his rallies is where he literally talks off the top of his head, and I think that’s why he makes such a connection with people,” he said.

Trump will often incorporate what people are shouting at him into his speech, Leonard added.

“I’m expecting that too,” he said. “That’s why people go, because it’s a lot of fun and a lot of it’s unexpected. You have everything you can possibly imagine going on.”

Leonard views the rally as a boost for California conservatives.

“He’s delivering that message at large to all Californians that ‘we know you’re here and we look forward to you getting your voices back and participating more in your conservative values,’” he said.