'Thirsty for change': This deep-red state could be key to control of the Senate

Control of the U.S. Senate will likely come down to just a handful of states out of the more than 30 with Senate races in November. But one reliably Republican state has a much closer contest than expected.

TIME Magazine reported that Democrats are becoming increasingly bullish on ousting Sen. Deb Fischer (R-NE). The two-term Republican was thought to be a sure thing for reelection, as Nebraska has voted for Republican presidential candidates in every election cycle since 1968.

But in the final weeks of the 2024 election, Fischer is on the ropes.

Her opponent, Dan Osborn, is a labor union leader running as an independent, and there is no Democrat in the contest. Osborn has also promised to not caucus with either party if elected, which breaks with other independents who caucus with Democrats like Sens. Angus King (I-MN), Joe Manchin (I-WV), Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ).

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Fischer was at first comfortably ahead of Osborn, leading him by a whopping 26 points in a July survey. But the latest polls show Osborn within the margin of error, and in some cases even ahead of Fischer by as much as five percentage points according to polling data compiled by FiveThirtyEight. This is a stark contrast from how Vice President Kamala Harris is performing in the Cornhusker State, where she trails former President Donald Trump by 20 points.

“People are just thirsty for a change, on both sides of the aisle,” Osborn said in an interview with the Washington Post.

Osborn has no prior experience as an elected official, but he led a strike at the Kellogg's cereal factory in Omaha in 2021. Roughly 1,400 workers staged an 11-week work stoppage between October and December of that year, and successfully secured a new five-year contract. The union's main sticking point was a two-tiered pay system between so-called "legacy" employees and new hires. Their new contract eliminated the two-tier system, with Kellogg's agreeing to no plant closures until at least 2026.

However, the company announced in August that it would be closing in 2026. Osborn said the Omaha plant was one of Kellogg's most profitable operations, and suggested the closure was retaliation for the strike. The Nebraska Examiner reported that the company posted profits of $19 billion before the Covid-19 pandemic and $21 billion after.

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“We need to be angry about this,” Osborn said in response to the closure.“These are hard-working people... This is a clear attack on the middle class that is constantly dwindling in this country.”

The Senate, which is currently in Democratic control with a 51-seat majority, could flip in favor of the GOP with just two Democratic incumbents losing races. And because Manchin is no longer seeking another term in ruby-red West Virginia, Republicans are virtually guaranteed a pickup. That could happen if either Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) or Sen. Jon Tester (R-MT) lose their races in their reliably red states. But Fischer losing could complicate Republicans' hopes of regaining control of the upper chamber of Congress.

Additionally, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) is battling for his political future as Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX) is spending large sums in a competitive race. And Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) is also facing a tough challenge from former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL) in the Sunshine State, with Democrats unleashing a torrent of new spending on her behalf.

Click here to read TIME's report in full.

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