How Mets’ Game One Starter Will Dictate NLCS

With four days in-between games for the first time since the All-Star break, the New York Mets have the luxury of lining up their starting rotation however they see fit for their first National League Championship Series appearance in nine years against either the Los Angeles Dodgers or San Diego Padres.

Jose Quintana, Sean Manaea and Luis Severino all rose to the occasion towards the end of the regular season as the team hunted down a playoff berth, and it’s largely been more of the same from the trio since the calendar flipped to October. With Kodai Senga back in the mix as well, New York has a fully-stocked cupboard of arms ready to go for its final push.

If you were to read the tea leaves as of today, it would appear that Senga is the leading candidate to get the ball in Game One on the road on Sunday night. SNY’s Andy Martino categorized him as “likely” to get the nod for the series opener, and he has previously reported that the Mets plan on stretching him out for more than the 31 pitches he threw over two innings against the Philadelphia Phillies in Game One of the NLDS last Saturday. Despite giving up a lead-off home run to Kyle Schwarber in that outing, Senga looked rather strong in his first major league appearance in over two months as he struck out three hitters while limiting the damage to just that one run.

David Peterson will likely piggyback Senga, much like he did versus the Phillies. He turned in three innings of shutout ball on 50 pitches in that contest before coming back and matching that output across 2 1/3 frames and 23 pitches in Game Four. Whether it’s the Dodgers with Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy or the Padres with Luis Arráez, Jackson Merrill and Jake Cronenworth, Peterson’s efficiency against left-handed batters will be crucial to the Mets as they traverse through the NLCS. Assuming Senga receives two starts in the series, Peterson will likely follow him both times and could potentially be available for a shorter appearance or two out of the bullpen if needed depending on his prior workload.

New York could easily adopt the “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” mentality and run back their alignment from the NLDS, meaning Severino would toe the rubber for Game Two on Monday. He’s gone six innings in each of his two postseason outings thus far, resulting in a 4.50 ERA. The 30-year-old right-hander threw 91 pitches last Sunday, so he’d have just over a week’s worth of rest if the Mets do follow through with that plan. Severino would then be in line to start a Game Six if necessary.

He would be available to start Game One as well, though the team may consider pushing him back to Game Three at Citi Field given that his ERA at home (2.96) was just over two points lower than it was on the road (5.00) during the regular season. In that case, Manaea could be pushed up to Game Two six days after he allowed one run over seven innings (91 pitches) against Philadelphia in Game Three of the NLDS on Tuesday.

At the same time, however, he would be on regular rest for Game One and could earn the nod over Senga, which would potentially put him in line for three starts throughout the course of the series. Manaea’s been the Mets’ best rotation arm for nearly the entire year, so it would make sense for the team to maximize his availability for the remainder of the playoffs.

As for Quintana, it’s hard to see him getting back on the mound before the NLCS returns to New York. He tossed 90 pitches versus the Phillies on Wednesday, and while he would be on regular rest for Game Two, the Mets feel far more likely to wait it out with him until Game Four. The southpaw could potentially start Game Seven in that case if the team expended its other starters in relief during Game Six, though that’s probably thinking a little bit too far down the line and is a far-fetched possibility at this point.

The Mets have no shortage of options and different orders in which they can choose to deploy their starters for the NLCS. They can’t go wrong with whatever decision they make considering how well each pitcher has performed, but the direction they do go in will obviously play a huge part in dictating the outcome of the series.

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