US Presidential forecast E-22

No states have flipped in the last two days but Arizona and North Carolina have trended a bit more towards Trump and Pennsylvania towards Harris. This marginally helps Harris in my view as Pennsylvania is the critical state at this stage.

But it remains the closest election in term of polls in modern history. Even a tiny polling error either way could deliver all seven swing states to Trump or Harris. As Trump outperformed the polls in 2016 and 2020, I would regard him as favourite at this stage.

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