Chappell Roan Grammy submissions: Will she be the 15th artist nominated for the big four in the same year?
Chappell Roan is arguably the biggest new music star of the year, so it might be surprising that she has a relatively low ceiling when it comes to what she can get from this year’s Grammy nominations. The most she can receive is six bids from the recording academy. But among those, she could achieve something rare: nominations across all of the big four general field categories. Here’s her complete list of potential noms.
Record of the Year — “Good Luck, Babe!”
Album of the Year — “The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess”
Song of the Year — “Good Luck, Babe!”
Best New Artist
Best Pop Solo Performance — “Good Luck, Babe!”
Best Pop Vocal Album — “The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess”
The 14 artists who so far have achieved the grand slam of nominations for Record of the Year, Album of the Year, Song of the Year, and Best New Artist are Bobbie Gentry (1968), Christopher Cross (1981), Cyndi Lauper (1985), Tracy Chapman (1989), Mariah Carey (1991), Paula Cole (1998), India Arie (2002), Amy Winehouse (2008), Fun (2013), Sam Smith (2015), Billie Eilish (2020), Lizzo (2020), Olivia Rodrigo (2022), and Finneas (2022).
The last of those comes with an asterisk, though. The year Finneas was nominated for Best New Artist, his Record of the Year, Album of the Year, and Song of the Year nominations came for his work with other artists (his sister Eilish and Justin Bieber) as a songwriter and producer and not for his own output as a recording artist.
Whether or not you count Finneas, that’s a lucky list to join. All but three of the aforementioned 14 artists ended up winning Best New Artist. The only exceptions were India Arie, who was overshadowed by fellow R&B breakout star Alicia Keys; Lizzo, who lost to Eilish; and Finneas, who lost to Rodrigo. Don’t feel bad for those three, though. Every single artist on that list is a Grammy winner.
According to the combined predictions of thousands of Gold Derby users, Roan will indeed join that club. She ranks fourth in our odds for Album of the Year, fifth for Record of the Year, fourth for Song of the Year, and she’s the front-runner to take home Best New Artist.
But she’ll have to watch out for another breakthrough performer who could also sweep the big four: Sabrina Carpenter, whom our odds favor to be nominated for Record of the Year and Best New Artist, but not Album of the Year or Song of the Year — yet. Carpenter surprised us by submitting her chart-topper “Please Please Please” to Song of the Year instead of inescapable “Espresso.” Before we updated our predictions center, though, “Espresso” was expected to receive a nom for Song of the Year. Now that “Espresso” is out, expect “Please Please Please” to rise as our users update their predictions.
As for Carpenter’s album “Short n’ Sweet,” it’s on the bubble for a nomination, ranked 10th in our Album of the Year odds, but I think we’re underestimating it. So we may see two young women join this auspicious list when nominations are announced on November 8.