The Dolphins' historic hatred of Buffalo, some Ravens shade and the best bets of Week 9

I put my faith in the Chicago Bears last week. And like so many Bears fans, this faith was rewarded with pain.

Tyrique Stevenson’s inability to pay attention for a full hour of game time blew up what could have been an otherwise rosy week, leaving me vulnerable to a surge from our resident NFL expert, the Rhode Island Scumbag. Surge he did, finally crossing over into the realm of profitability thanks to his instinct to fade the Baltimore Ravens’ defense and the Carolina Panthers at large.

This week, I’ll be stuck avoiding the temptation to chase bad beats with good money. Our Scumbag friend will have the chance to splash around some of his newfound cash. With a solid slate of not-quite-trustable home favorites across a 15-game schedule, there will be plenty of opportunities for both.

Let’s see what we’ve got. All Scumbag analysis is in blockquotes below.

Last week, a heads up play from Chris Brooks to stay out of the endzone at the end of the Green Bay – Jacksonville matchup kept us from going 3-0 and a neat four unit profit [Ed. note. OH I’M SO SORRY AN UNLIKELY OCCURENCE AT THE END OF THE GAME DIDN’T GO YOUR WAY, I CANNOT RELATE]. Fortunately, two of the bets were settled in impressive fashion, leading to a two unit profit on the day.

Looking to keep the positive momentum going, this Scumbag is going to once again find exploitable matchups to profit from as we hit the halfway mark of the NFL season. The gap between myself and the person who does this for a living (Christian) is slowly but surely closing, so I’m interested to see where we stand this time next week.

Buffalo Bills (-6) vs. Miami Dolphins (one unit)

To say Miami struggles in Buffalo historically would be an understatement. The last time Miami won a game in front of Bills Mafia was in December 2016, a 34-31 overtime victory.

Since then, Buffalo has gone 8-0 against Miami at home, and 14-2 overall. Even though Miami got Tua Tagovailoa back last week, he was not a difference maker in this season’s first matchup between these two teams, a 31-10 loss in Miami.

Last week, Arizona’s offensive weapons had their way with the Miami defense when it mattered. It should be more of the same for Buffalo this week. Josh Allen and the offense as a whole looks more dangerous with the addition of Amari Cooper (although he was banged up last week). I’m trusting Buffalo to take care of business on both sides of the ball and extend their win streak at home in emphatic fashion.

Washington Commanders (-3.5) at New York Giants (one unit)

Washington is playing impressive football as of late and looks to build on their thrilling victory last week over Chicago. The Giants are coming off a tough Monday night loss to Pittsburgh and may be without their top running back, Tyrone Tracy.

Last time these two teams met, it was a kick fest for Washington, booting seven field goals en route to a 21-18 Washington victory. Both the Commanders’ offense and defense have continued to improve since then, and I can’t imagine they’ll be held out of the endzone by the Giants for another 60 minutes.

Daniel Jones’ struggles at home also contribute to my feeling that Washington comes into East Rutherford and takes care of business. Ultimately, a healthy Jayden Daniels should demonstrate growth in his offense and lead his Commanders to victory.

Denver Broncos (+9.5) at Baltimore Ravens (one unit)

Here we are looking to make a profit once again on Denver. Both teams helped cash bets for this Scumbag last week, and I’m leaning on Denver to help us do it again.

The Bo Nix-led offense showed out again last week (albeit against the JV Carolina Panthers). The defense was as solid as advertised once again. Baltimore, on the other hand, put up some points but was ultimately outlasted by the Cleveland Browns and their latest AARP retread, Jameis Winston [Ed. note: Jameis Winston is nearly a full decade younger than either of us].

Although Baltimore added some offense this week in the form of Diontae Johnson, it’s the defense that’s been letting them down this season. Baltimore is currently allowing 26.1 points per game, good for 26th in the league. Denver, on the other hand, sits at 15.0 — third-best. Something is going to have to give in order for the line to make sense. I’m betting on Denver’s defense keeping the game close, leading to a Denver cover.

Last week: 2-1, +2 units
Season to date: 14-11-1 (.558), +1 units

My non-Scumbag picks: Chicago Bears +1.5 over the Arizona Cardinals, Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants UNDER 44 points, Cincinnati Bengals -7 over the Las Vegas Raiders and Atlanta Falcons -2.5 over the Dallas Cowboys (one unit each)

Let’s try and get back on track with a shotgun blast of picks. That always works, right? Reacting to a losing week by upping your bets?

Anyway, I still believe in the Bears offense, even despite the Matt Eberflus of it all. The Cardinals have a worse defense than Washington did and Chicago now has something to prove after vomiting down its own chest for the majority of Week 8.

35 points is the highest total of any Giants game in the Meadowlands this season. The stadium was built on a swamp and New York games showcase this in their entirety. I don’t love the confluence of two bad defenses here, but even if Washington puts up 28 points I don’t trust Daniel Jones to add 17 more.

The Bengals need a get-right game and, hey, here’s the Raiders! Cincinnati has been able to take care of business against bad teams following its annual September lull. The Falcons are a gut pick — two untrustable teams squaring off and the home side laying fewer than three points. As of publication, Micah Parsons still hadn’t practiced, which suggests Dallas will struggle to make Kirk Cousins uncomfortable and waylay the Atlanta offense.

Phew. I like these picks more after talking them out. I also sorta hate them. Ah, well.

Last week: 0-2, -3 units
Season to date: 12-9 (.571), +5 units