Israeli analyst says Netanyahu 'putting his bets' on Trump victory

An Israeli political analyst said Friday that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is "praying and putting his bets on the victory" of former U.S. President Donald Trump as Israel's military continues to bombard the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, dashing any lingering hopes of an imminent cease-fire agreement and deepening the region's war and humanitarian catastrophe.

Akiva Eldar, who previously headed the U.S. Bureau for the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, told Al Jazeera that Netanyahu believes if Trump—who has signaled he would give Israel's government free rein in the Middle East—defeats Democratic nominee Kamala Harris on November 5, the Israeli prime minister "will be able to manipulate the president."

"There is another deadline for Netanyahu," Eldar added, pointing to "the first week of December when he will have to start testifying in his corruption trial, and he will do anything to avoid it. The best excuse or pretext that he has... [is that] he is busy with multi-frontier wars and he shouldn't waste his time in court, because we're talking about looking at four days a week for at least six weeks that he will have to spend in court."

Eldar's assessment came as Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati said Friday that the Israeli military's "expansion of the scope of its aggression" in Lebanon makes clear that Netanyahu is opposed to "all efforts being made to secure a cease-fire."

"Israeli statements and diplomatic signals that Lebanon received confirm Israel's stubbornness in rejecting the proposed solutions and insisting on the approach of killing and destruction," Mikati said in a statement.

Israeli bombings on Friday, including attacks on Beirut's southern suburbs, killed more than a dozen people. Reuters reported that "the strikes came after Israel issued evacuation orders for 10 separate neighborhoods."

"The attacks began before the final series of orders were published," Reuters added. "The hostilities have whittled away any hope a truce could be reached before the November 5 U.S. presidential election."

"There's no need for an elaborate 'October surprise' theory. Mr. Netanyahu's own cabinet members are accusing him of acting for political rather than military ends."

The Times of Israel's Ron Kampeas noted Friday that "Netanyahu had a famously close relationship with Trump and his administration, which fulfilled a checklist of Israeli government wishes" during its four years in power.

"In 2019, Netanyahu featured Trump prominently in his own reelection campaign," Kampeas wrote. "The prime minister likewise has had a series of high-profile clashes with Democratic presidents, from Bill Clinton to Barack Obama and, recently, [Joe] Biden."

While Trump has publicly tried to appeal to Muslim and Arab American voters by posturing as a "peace" candidate, Trump has privately given Netanyahu a green light to continue attacking Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon.

"Do what you have to do," Trump reportedly told Netanyahu during a phone call last month.

The Washington Post recently observed that "Netanyahu, for his part, has spent years cultivating Republicans and has shown a clear preference for Trump in this election."

"People familiar with the situation said he is trying to regain Trump's favor after antagonizing him by congratulating Joe Biden on winning the 2020 election, a victory Trump has never accepted," the Post added.

Palestinian rights advocates have warned that Trump could be willing to allow Netanyahu and other far-right extremists in Israel's government to pursue annexation plans for the illegally occupied West Bank and Gaza. New York magazine's Elizabeth Weil reported earlier this year that Miriam Adelson, an Israeli American billionaire who has spent tens of millions of dollars backing Trump's White House bid, views annexation of the West Bank as a top priority.

"Beyond unconditional support for the Israel-Hamas war, one can assume she'll press for the unfinished items of Trump's Israel agenda from last term," Weil wrote. "Top of that list: Israel annexing the West Bank and the U.S. recognizing its sovereignty there."

Speaking to reporters last month, Biden himself acknowledged speculation that Netanyahu was sabotaging cease-fire talks at every turn in order to influence the outcome of the 2024 election, nodding to concerns that outrage over U.S. complicity in Israel's assault on Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon could cost Harris critical support.

"No administration has helped Israel more than I have. None. None. None. And I think Bibi should remember that," Biden declared in early October. "And whether he's trying to influence the election, I don't know, but I'm not counting on that."

U.S. Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) was explicit about his concerns, telling CNN last month that he's worried Netanyahu "is watching the American election as he makes decisions about his military campaigns in the north and in Gaza."

"I hope this is not true but it is certainly a possibility that the Israeli government is not going to sign any diplomatic agreement prior to the American election as a means, potentially, to try to influence the result," said Murphy.

In a column on Friday, The Globe and Mail's Doug Saunders wrote that Netanyahu's "refusal to follow any informed advice from the United States to stop bombing civilian areas now that top leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah have been killed, or to step back from violent escalations that could trigger a regional conflagration, have led a growing number of observers to call this what it really is: deliberate interference in the U.S. election."

"There's no need for an elaborate 'October surprise' theory. Mr. Netanyahu's own cabinet members are accusing him of acting for political rather than military ends," Saunders wrote, pointing to Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant's criticism of Netanyahu's approach.

"Mr. Gallant, despite being nominally involved in the organization of the war, has repeatedly questioned why Mr. Netanyahu is continuing to prosecute it in such a needlessly brutal fashion, without an end game or any willingness to seek a settlement, a surrender or a return of the hostages," Saunders continued. "This strategy-free tactic, he warned in June, will force Israel into a lengthy de facto occupation of Gaza costing the country 'blood and many victims, with no aim.'"

"It now appears that there is an aim," added Saunders. "It's a goal that might rescue Mr. Netanyahu’s political hide, and surround him with an international alliance of similar-minded elected autocrats. The price of that aim, in innocent human lives, is unspeakable."