MMO Free Agent Profile: Walker Buehler, SP

Walker Buehler

Position: SP B/T: R/R
Age: 30 (07/28/1994)

2024 Traditional Stats: 16 G (16 GS), 75.1 IP, 1-6, 5.38 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 64 SO, 28 BB
2024 Advanced Stats: 72 ERA+, 18.6% SO%, 8.1% BB%, 4.68 xERA, 5.54 FIP, 4.49 xFIP, -0.2 fWAR, -1.3 bWAR

Rundown

Walker Buehler, 30, was a first-round pick (No. 24 overall) back in 2015 to the team he would eventually win two World Series rings with: the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Buehler was originally drafted by the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 14th round of the 2012 draft, but he chose to go on and play college baseball at SEC powerhouse Vanderbilt University, where he would win an NCAA championship.

His MLB career has been a solid one through seven years, as the right-hander has posted a 3.27 career ERA over 713 2/3 innings. Things did take a rough turn in August of 2022, however, when Buehler found out he would need a second Tommy John surgery.

He would go on to miss the entirety of the 2023 season and return this past summer, where he struggled mightily as you can see above. Buehler did enjoy a fantastic postseason, though, showing that he can still be reliable as he posted a 3.60 ERA and closed out Game 5 of the Fall Classic over the New York Yankees.

From an advanced stats perspective, he carried a 94 Stuff+ this season, which is down significantly from his 2021 mark of 117. His fastball in particular took a major hit, as its Stuff+ dropped from 115 in 2021 to 85 in 2024.

A positive to take away from this year was the fact that Buehler kept his ground ball rate up at 45.9% (69th percentile), which is solid even in a very down campaign for him coming off his surgery.

Per Baseball Savant, Buehler’s cutter was his best pitch by a mile at +7 run value. His four-seamer struggled heavily at -8, so making the cutter his primary pitch in 2025 could help him out tremendously. Buehler does have a “good ole reliable” offering in his sweeper, as it continues to grade out above-average and profile as one of the best breaking balls in the league, averaging 15.0 inches of glove side break.

Contract

Coming off a one-year, $8 million dollar contract, Spotrac’s contract projection system does not love Buehler, projecting that he will get a two-year, $7.76 million dollar deal ($3.88 AAV). Their system also puts him in the same category as the likes of Colin Rea, Tyler Beede, JT Brubaker and Spencer Turnbull. It seems more likely, though, that Buehler will receive a one-year deal “prove-it” deal like the one Luis Severino earned from the Mets last offseason.

Recommendation

The Mets have three starting pitchers who could hit the open market in Severino, Sean Manaea and Jose Quintana. That’s a ton of innings to replace, meaning president of baseball operations David Stearns and the Mets’ front office will be tasked with rebuliding this rotation. Adding an arm like Buehler on a low-risk, one year contract could benefit the organization a ton. If he were to be sign with New York, I would envision him being the team’s No. 4 or 5 starter.

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