Free Agent Profile: Alex Bregman, 3B

Alex Bregman, 3B

Postion: 3B B/T: R/R
Age: 30 (03/30/1994)

2023 Traditional Stats: 634 PA, .260/.315/.453/.768, 26 HR, 75 RBI,
2023 Advanced Stats: 118 wRC+, 13.6 SO%, 6.9 BB%, .375 BABIP, .323 xwOBA, 4.1 fWAR, 4.1 bWAR

Rundown 

Overshadowed by Juan Soto, career-long Houston Astros third baseman Alex Bregman is one of the biggest bats on the market. The 30-year-old has been one of the league’s top third basemans since he broke into the league, full time, back in 2017. With a career .848 OPS, above-average defensive metrics each season, and the fact he is only 30 years old, Bregman’s services will be wanted by many come the beginning of free agency on Monday.

The year after the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal (2017 and 2018), Bregman turned in a career season in 2019. He finished MVP-runner up, posting a 1.015 OPS to go along with 41 home runs and 112 RBIs. Although not posting a year close to the elite 8.3 fWAR season since, he has still been a borderline All-Star each season since

After the pandemic-shortened 2020 season and a 2021 season Bregman missed a couple months with injury, he has posted three-straight years with a fWAR above 4.0. These type of outputs represent an All-Star caliber player. Additionally, his OPS+ over that time averaged around 125.

Unfortunately, for Bregman, 2024 was arguably his worst full-time season since breaking in the majors. His .768 OPS, although comfortably above the league average, was the lowest of his career. Further, his walk rate was down, while his strikeout rate was up slightly. In a contract year, Bregman just did not seem his usual self.

Again, despite that, he was still very solid (118 OPS+ and 118 wRC+). Further evidence is his fWAR was once again above 4.0 and he still largely profiled analytically how he has in the past. Bregman didn’t chase (82nd percentile), didn’t whiff (98th percentile), and didn’t strikeout all that much (94th percentile). This, along with taking walks, is what Bregman has built his offensive game on since breaking into the majors.

The only aspect that was lacking in 2024 was the walk rate. It was only 6.9%, way off his career 11.9% average. One would assume this number gets back closer to his career averages as he continues to not chase and swing-and-miss.

His batted-ball profile was also pretty close to what we saw from him in his very strong 2022 and 2023 campaigns. His expected batting average was in the league’s 70th percentile and his expected slugging figure was in the 60th percentile. He hit for power, posting a 4.1% home run rate (26 total), right above his career average, and also belted 30 doubles.

The largest difference was, again, the lack of walks. This was felt by not only a career-low .315 on-base percentage (.366 career average), but an expected-weighted on-base percentage only in the league’s 55th percentile. This number is often always above the 70th percentile.

Defensively, although never a Gold Glove winner, Bregman has always been solid at the hot corner. Across his nine-year career, Bregman only posted a negative defensive runs saved (DRS) twice and never posted a negative outs above average (OAA). In 2024, Bregman’s OAA ranked in the league’s 79th percentile. Among qualified third basemans, Bregman’s overall defensive rating courtesy of Fangraphs ranked fifth (of 15) in 2024.

Contract

Bregman is coming off a five-year extension worth $20 million per season he signed back as a 25-year-old. He will rightfully desire a slight raise over that figure in a longer-term deal. Sportstrac projects a four-year deal worth nearly $120 million, carrying an annual average value around $30 million. Meanwhile, the Athletic is projecting a seven-year deal worth an annual average value of $26.5 million totaling $185.5 million.

There is no exact comparison for Bregman, as Manny Machado carried much-more pedigree than Bregman did when he signed his deal as a 30-year-old (11 years, $350 million). With the down season factored in, a deal between six-and-seven years worth around $25-to-$27 million seems the most realistic. This number would check Bregman in at the fifth-highest paid third baseman in the majors, just ahead of Matt Chapman, and trailing Rafael Dever’s $313.5 million mega-deal.

Recommendation

The New York Mets’ interest in Alex Bregman likely hinges on what happens with slugging first baseman Pete Alonso. If Alonso walks, Bregman would make a ton of sense. It would enable Mark Vientos to move to either first base or a full-time designed hitter role. This would help mightily as Vientos has struggled big-time at third base (sixth percentile OAA in 2024).

Not only is Bregman, on the surface, one of the best third basemans in the game, but his overall game profiles extremely well, even with age. Bregman’s offensive game is built upon making contact and terrific patience at the plate; low chase, whiff, and strikeout rates to go along with a high walk rate. This is a type of player that typically ages better and one that president of baseball operations David Stearns would seemingly covet.

Of course, at the end of the day it comes down to the contract. If Bregman is really chasing after a mega-deal closer to the likes of Machado and Devers, stay far away. However, if the Mets can get that annual average closer to the $25 million range, having a bat like Bregman, who also gets it done defensively, to replace to production of Alonso, would be huge.

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