'Generational change': Republicans gain major ground in South Texas

AUSTIN (Nexstar) -- Starr County hasn't voted for a Republican in 128 years. On Tuesday, it flipped red for the first time in living memory, along with most of Texas' border counties that are turning toward Republicans after a generation of Democratic loyalty.

"As Tejanos, we're raised as conservatives, we're Catholics, we're Christians, and we believe that what the Republican Party represents now is what we stand by," Zapata County Republican Party Chair Jennifer Thatcher told Nexstar. Her county voted for Hillary Clinton by 32.8 points in 2016. In 2024, they voted for Donald Trump by 22.5 points -- a whopping 55-point swing in just two elections.

Similar shifts played out up and down the border -- Hidalgo, Cameron, Starr, Webb, Duval, Willacy, Maverick, and Val Verde counties all turned red. El Paso County remained blue, but Democrats won there by only 15 points -- 28 points fewer than in 2016.

"It's just a real abject Democratic collapse," Executive Director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas Austin James Henson said. "It's going to take a couple more cycles to make a reasoned judgment about what the long-term consequences are here, to see what the trend looks like. But that said, it's completely understandable and justifiable for Republicans to say that they they broke through in these border counties."

Henson said the swing shouldn't be surprising, given the substantial ground work and investment that Republicans have committed to the border region in recent years.

On Tuesday, Sen. Ted Cruz said in his victory speech that the results represent "generational change in South Texas."

"Our Hispanic communities aren't just leaving the Democrat (sic) Party, they're coming home to conservative values they never left," Cruz said.

Thatcher agrees, arguing the typical values of South Texas Tejanos mirrors those of the current Republican Party. She also said immigration and border security were the major driving issues for her community.

"Security of the border was a big deal for South Texas, yeah, and it was something that was overlooked. The borders were literally open, whether they want to admit it or not," she said. "It was overwhelming for every community. There were chases and bailouts, and they did kind of tie up our EMS system and our first responders were stretched thin."

Eagle Pass Democrat Eddie Morales, who survived a well-funded challenger in Robert Garza to return to the Texas House by 3.4 points, acknowledged in a post-election statement that Democrats have work to do on the border.

"There is no question as to the new political landscape we now find ourselves in. We cannot hide from it nor ignore it. Elections tell stories and unveils the true viewpoint of constituents and their needs," Morales said. "President-Elect Donald Trump won House District 74 with nearly 60% of the vote. The truth is, I understand why. Talking to voters, they had deep concerns over the border and inflation – they wanted a change."