MANILA, Philippines – The weather bureau raised Signal No. 3 due to Severe Tropical Storm Nika (Toraji) for the first time on Sunday evening, November 10, covering two towns in Isabela and three towns in Aurora.

As of 7 pm on Sunday, Nika was located 330 kilometers east of Baler, Aurora, or 335 kilometers east northeast of Infanta, Quezon. It slowed down further, moving west northwest over the Philippine Sea at 15 kilometers per hour from the previous 20 km/h.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in its 8 pm bulletin that the severe tropical storm still has maximum sustained winds of 110 km/h and gustiness of up to 135 km/h.

But Nika is still expected to intensify into a typhoon on Sunday and could reach a peak intensity of 130 km/h — referring to maximum sustained winds — before hitting land.

Nika might make landfall in Isabela or Aurora on Monday morning or early afternoon, November 11. Afterwards, it will cross mainland Luzon, where “a short period of weakening” is expected, then emerge over the West Philippine Sea on Monday evening, where it could re-intensify.

Here is the latest list of areas where tropical cyclone wind signals are in effect:

Signal No. 3

Storm-force winds (89 to 117 km/h), moderate to significant threat to life and property

• southeastern part of Isabela (Dinapigue, Palanan)
• northern part of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran, Dinalungan)

Signal No. 2

Gale-force winds (62 to 88 km/h), minor to moderate threat to life and property

• southern part of Ilocos Norte (Nueva Era, Solsona, Dingras, Marcos, Banna, Batac City, Pinili, Paoay, Currimao, Badoc, Carasi, Piddig, Sarrat, San Nicolas, Laoag City)
• Ilocos Sur
• La Union
• northeastern part of Pangasinan (San Nicolas, Natividad, San Quintin, Sison, San Manuel, Umingan, Tayug)
• central part of Aurora (Dipaculao, Maria Aurora, Baler)
• southern part of mainland Cagayan (Solana, Iguig, Peñablanca, Tuguegarao City, Enrile, Baggao, Alcala, Amulung, Santo Niño, Rizal, Piat, Tuao, Gattaran, Lasam)
• rest of Isabela
• Quirino
• Nueva Vizcaya
• southern part of Apayao (Kabugao, Conner, Flora, Pudtol, Calanasan)
• Abra
• Kalinga
• Mountain Province
• Ifugao
• Benguet
• northern part of Nueva Ecija (Carranglan, Pantabangan, Lupao, San Jose City)

Signal No. 1

Strong winds (39 to 61 km/h), minimal to minor threat to life and property

• rest of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
• rest of Apayao
• rest of Ilocos Norte
• rest of Pangasinan
• rest of Aurora
• Tarlac
• northern and central parts of Zambales (Santa Cruz, Candelaria, Masinloc, Palauig, Iba, Botolan, Cabangan, San Marcelino, San Felipe, San Narciso)
• rest of Nueva Ecija
• Pampanga
• Bulacan
• Metro Manila
• Rizal
• eastern part of Laguna (Santa Maria, Mabitac, Pakil, Pangil, Famy, Siniloan, Paete, Kalayaan, Cavinti, Lumban, Luisiana, Santa Cruz, Magdalena, Pagsanjan, Majayjay, Liliw, Nagcarlan, Pila, Victoria)
• eastern part of Quezon (Calauag, Guinayangan, Tagkawayan, Pitogo, San Andres, Buenavista, San Francisco, Pagbilao, Infanta, Lopez, Catanauan, Mulanay, Unisan, General Luna, Plaridel, Quezon, Alabat, Sampaloc, Padre Burgos, Macalelon, Mauban, Perez, Agdangan, Gumaca, Atimonan, Real, San Narciso, General Nakar, Lucban, Tayabas City, Lucena City) including Polillo Islands
• Camarines Norte
• Camarines Sur
• Catanduanes
• northeastern part of Albay (Malinao, Tiwi, Bacacay, Tabaco City, Malilipot, Rapu-Rapu)

The highest possible tropical cyclone wind signal due to Nika is Signal No. 4.

The northeasterly windflow is also bringing strong to gale-force gusts to these areas:

Sunday, November 10

• Batanes

Monday, November 11

• Batanes, Batangas, Marinduque, Romblon, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes

Tuesday, November 12

• Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands

In PAGASA’s rainfall outlook released at 8 pm on Sunday, Northern Samar was no longer included in the areas seeing moderate to heavy rain from Nika, as the severe tropical storm is generally heading upward and away from the Visayas.

Sunday evening, November 10, to Monday evening, November 11

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 millimeters): Aurora, Isabela
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Cagayan, Apayao, Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Quezon, Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur

Monday evening, November 11, to Tuesday evening, November 12

• Intense to torrential rain (more than 200 mm): Cagayan, Isabela, Apayao, Kalinga, Aurora
• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Abra, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Quezon, Tarlac, Pangasinan, La Union, Nueva Ecija

Tuesday evening, November 12, to Wednesday evening, November 13

• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Apayao, Abra, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur

The weather bureau reiterated that floods and landslides are likely.

In addition, there is a moderate to high risk of storm surges in Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Zambales, Aurora, Quezon including Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes in the next 48 hours.

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PAGASA maintained the following outlook for sea conditions in the next 24 hours:

Up to very rough or high seas (travel is risky for all vessels)

• Seaboards of Isabela and northern Aurora – waves up to 7 meters high
• Remaining seaboard of Aurora; northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands; seaboard of
  Camarines Norte – waves up to 5.5 meters high
• Eastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan; northern seaboards of Camarines Sur and Catanduanes; western seaboard of Ilocos Norte; seaboard of Ilocos Sur – waves up to 4.5 meters high

Up to rough seas (small vessels should not venture out to sea)

• Remaining seaboards of Catanduanes, mainland Cagayan, and Ilocos Norte; seaboard of Babuyan Islands – waves up to 4 meters high
• Seaboard of Batanes; remaining seaboards of Ilocos Region – waves up to 3.5 meters high
• Eastern seaboards of mainland Quezon, Albay, and Sorsogon; northern seaboard of Northern Samar; remaining seaboard of Polillo Islands – waves up to 3 meters high

Up to moderate seas (small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible)

• Eastern seaboard of Northern Samar – waves up to 2.5 meters high
• Eastern seaboards of Eastern Samar and Dinagat Islands; seaboard of Kalayaan Islands – waves up to 2 meters high

Nika is the Philippines’ 14th tropical cyclone for 2024, and the second for November, coming immediately after Typhoon Marce (Yinxing), which battered Northern Luzon.

It could leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Tuesday afternoon, November 12.

Meanwhile, the low pressure area (LPA) outside PAR was located 2,020 kilometers east of Eastern Visayas as of 2 pm on Sunday.

The LPA still has a high chance of developing into a tropical depression within 24 hours. Updates are expected in the coming hours and days. – Rappler.com