Is the California ‘exodus’ over?

The flow of Californians leaving for other states declined last year by the largest amount in the nation.

My trusty spreadsheet’s review of new state-to-state migration data from the Census Bureau shows 127,542 fewer California left in 2023 for elsewhere in the US compared with 2022. Next came New York, down 64,054. Economic rival Texas had the 16th biggest dip, down 15,507.

Conversely, another California rival, Florida, was the state with the nation’s largest increase in departures – with exits growing by 21,020 residents.

So is the California “exodus” over? Why did California exits slow?

Well, last year’s continued return to somewhat pre-pandemic life – socially and economically – likely cooled the urge to move. Plus, the previous rush to other popular states boosted the cost-of-living in those locales, lightly muting the Golden State’s hefty affordability challenges.

Yes, California still saw the most residents — 690,127 — finding a new home in another state in 2023. Then came Florida at 510,925, New York at 481,544, and Texas at 478,570.

Yet that significant outflux of Californians seems like a return to relative normalcy. It’s within 5% of the 658,700 yearly average since 2004. We’ll note that the Census Bureau didn’t produce interstate migration numbers for pandemic-plagued 2020.

Moving, as a trend, is out of favor. Last year, interstate relocations decreased 8% nationally.

But in California, the departure decline was double the US pace at 16%. Only eight states had larger percentage dips. Texas exits were off 3%, the No. 17 drop among the states. Florida exits rose 4%, the sixth-biggest increase.

Please do not forget that as a share of all residents, California has long had one of the nation’s top “retention” rates.

Contemplate that the state’s 2023 exits equals 1.79% of the Golden State population. Just five states had a smaller share of residents departing – Indiana at 1.78%, Wisconsin at 1.71%, Texas at 1.59%, Ohio at 1.58%, and No. 1 Michigan at 1.56%. And Florida was 18th best at 2.28%.

By the way, the worst retention was in the government-dominated economy of District of Columbia, where 9.6% of residents moved to another state. No. 2 was Alaska at 4.94%.

In all, 2.28% of Americans switched states in 2023. So California was well below the nationwide state-switch frequency.

Nobody but me may say this, but, few Golden Staters leave – proportionally speaking.

Missing allure

Comparable thinking tells you not many Americans are moving to California.

Last year, California drew 422,075 people from other states, arrivals equaling 5.6% of the nation’s 7.55 million interstate relocations. That’s less than half the state’s 11.6% share of Americans aged 1 or older.

That’s also the third-largest inflow among the states. Tops were Florida at 636,933 and Texas at 611,942. But in the last 20 years, minus 2020’s statistical lockdown, California arrivals have never been lower.

It’s no secret that California is an expensive place to live – scaring off many who’d otherwise enjoy the state’s culture and climate. And there’s a good slice of non-Californians who don’t care for the state’s progressive politics.

Consequently, stalled arrivals are not that surprising. California’s 2023 inflow was 11% below 2022, the largest one-year percentage-point dip in the past two decades.

Now, interstate moves were off 8% nationally, but only 17 states fared worse for drops in newcomers than the Golden State.

To be fair, popularity among the nation’s three biggest states sagged. The Texas inflow was off 8% – the 26th-biggest dip – and Florida’s 14% drop was the 15th worst. Incidentally, Maryland had the biggest gain in newcomers, up 16%.

But let me offer another number to show the Golden State’s meek appeal to most Americans.

Consider that the 2023 inflow translated to 1.09% of California population – that’s a dead-last “attraction rate” in the nation. That’s less than half the nation’s 2.28% interstate relocation rate. The second-worst rate was Michigan at 1.36%.

Who draws best? The mercurial population of the District of Columbia, with 8.48% of residents being newcomers. Texas was No. 41 at 2.03% while Florida was No. 23 at 2.84%.

The missing allure – not some “exodus” – is the California’s true population challenge.

The ‘net’

California last year had the nation’s biggest gap between people who arrived and folks who departed – despite also enjoying the biggest improvement in what demographers call “net migration” among the states.

The state’s net outflow of 268,052 was California’s fourth largest since 2004. Last year’s No. 2 was New York, with outmigration at 179,709.

The positive slice of this people-movement scorecard was led by California rivals. Texas had 133,372 more people coming in than going out, followed by Florida with a net inflow of 126,008.

Too many people look at California’s sizable “net” outflow and immediately assume the state has problems keeping its residents. Do not forget, this demographic yardstick is the “net” result of two variables.

Just eyeball 2023’s math. Were the 690,127 Californians who exited too high? Or is the 422,075 Americans moved here too low?

And if we can somehow sidestep the what-caused-this debate, a glimmer of hope for California can be found – the gap between departures and arrivals is shrinking.

The Golden State’s net outflow last year was 73,814 smaller than 2022. No state improved more. No. 2 was New York, with a 65,428 decline.

And who’s at the other end of this migration metric’s spectrum?

Florida’s net inflow was reduced by 123,056 in the year, the worst performance in the nation. No. 3 was Texas, down 40,889.

Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com