Oil pares losses on tight supply but cloudy demand caps gains

Oil prices inched higher on Wednesday underpinned by signs of near-term supply tightness but held near their lowest in two weeks, a day after OPEC downgraded its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025.

Brent futures rose 14 cents, or 0.2 per cent, to $72.03 a barrel by 0745 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 13 cents, or 0.2 per cent, at $68.25.

“Crude oil prices edged higher as tightness in the physical market offset bearish sentiment on demand. Buyers in the physical market have been particularly active, with any available cargoes being snapped up quickly,” ANZ analysts said in a note.

But falling demand projections and weakness in major consumer China continued to weigh on market sentiment.

“We may expect prices to consolidate around current levels for longer,” said Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG, adding the recent attempt for a bounce was quickly sold into.

“The absence of a more direct fiscal stimulus out of China has been casting a shadow on oil demand outlook, coupled with the prospects of higher US oil production with a Trump presidency and looming OPEC+’s plans for an output raise,” Yeap added.

In its monthly report on Tuesday, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said world oil demand would rise by 1.82 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, down from growth of 1.93 million bpd forecast last month, mostly due to weakness in China, the world’s biggest oil importer.

Oil prices settled up 0.1 per cent on Tuesday following the news, after falling by about 5 per cent during the two previous sessions.

OPEC also cut its 2025 global demand growth estimate to 1.54 million bpd from 1.64 million bpd.

The International Energy Agency, which has a far lower view, is set to publish its updated forecast on Thursday.

“The re-election of former President Trump is unlikely to materially affect oil market fundamentals over the near term, in our view,” Barclays analysts wrote.

“Drill, baby, drill: this is likely to underwhelm as a strategy to drive oil prices materially lower over the near term” given that the stock of approved permits actually rose under the Biden administration, the analysts said.

However, markets would still feel the effects of a supply disruption from Iran or a further escalation between Iran and Israel, according to Barclays.

Donald Trump’s expected secretary of state pick, US Senator Marco Rubio, is known for his hardline stance on Iran, China and Cuba. Tighter enforcement of sanctions on Iran could disrupt global oil supply, while a tougher approach to China could further weaken oil demand in the world’s largest consumer.

Two US central bankers said on Tuesday that interest rates are acting as a brake on inflation that is still above the 2 per cent mark, suggesting that the Federal Reserve would be open to further interest rate cuts.

The Fed cut its policy rate last week by a quarter of a percentage point to the 4.50 per cent-4.75 per cent range. Interest rate cuts typically boost economic activity and energy demand.

US weekly inventory reports have been delayed by a day following Monday’s Veterans Day holiday. The American Petroleum Institute industry group data is due at 4:30 p.m. EST (2130 GMT) on Wednesday.

Analysts polled by Reuters estimated on average that crude inventories rose by about 100,000 barrels in the week to Nov. 8.