College Football Playoff projections: How will the selection committee treat Boise State relative to the top teams in the Big 12 and ACC?
Expansion of the College Football Playoff is arguably the greatest competitive change in the sport’s history — more significant than the move from the Bowl Championship Series to the four-team CFP a decade ago. Each week, the Hotline will dive into the 12-team playoff race with a look at the frontrunners, bubble teams and key developments across the landscape.
The third College Football Playoff rankings of 2024, scheduled for release Tuesday at 4 p.m. on ESPN, should include significant changes following losses by No. 6 Brigham Young and No. 7 Tennessee.
Our focus will be on the following issues:
— Georgia’s treatment.
The Bulldogs dropped nine spots last week, to No. 12, after the loss at Mississippi and were understandably miffed with the committee’s disregard for their first-class schedule strength.
How high will Georgia climb after beating Tennessee decisively?
Yes, the Dawgs have two losses, but no team in the country can match their collection of quality wins (Texas, Tennessee and Clemson).
— Boise State vs. the Big 12 and ACC.
The Broncos will be the top-ranked Group of Five team on Tuesday and should hold that position as long as they keep winning.
But there’s a second layer to consider: If they are ranked higher than either the Big 12 or ACC champion on Dec. 8, the Broncos will also claim an opening-round bye.
Keep an eye on the gap between Boise State and the teams from those leagues that are currently ranked above (Brigham Young and Miami) and below (SMU and Colorado) the Broncos.
— The SEC pecking order.
The conference placed six teams in the top 15 of the CFP rankings last week, and the only loss sustained by the group on Saturday came to one of its own (No. 7 Tennessee lost to No. 12 Georgia).
Our hunch is the Bulldogs, who have concluded conference play, climb high enough to secure a berth even if they don’t qualify for the SEC title game (but as long as they beat UMass and Georgia Tech).
But how will the committee treat the Vols relative to Alabama and Mississippi?
To the projections …
Automatic bids
The five highest-ranked conference champions will receive automatic bids to the CFP, with the top four earning opening-round byes and the four highest seeds. The fifth conference winner will be seeded according to its ranking.
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten). We have seen enough improvement from OSU, particularly on defense, to believe the Buckeyes would handle Oregon in the conference championship in Indianapolis.
No. 2 Texas (SEC). There are a plethora of scenarios in the SEC, but all of them lead to the winner earning no worse than the No. 2 seed.
No. 3 SMU (ACC). It says a lot about the ACC that a newcomer straight from the American is poised to win the league. And much of what it says is not flattering.
No. 4 Colorado (Big 12). The combined conference record of the six teams the Buffs have defeated in Big 12 play is a lowly 16-23 — and they don’t face ASU, BYU or Iowa State. The schedule misses matter in 16-team conferences.
No. 12 Boise State (Group of Five). We assume at least some members of the committee watched the Broncos beat San Jose State and were not exactly overwhelmed by the performance.
At-large qualifiers
The seven highest-ranked non-champions will receive at-large bids. There is no limit to the number of at-large teams from a particular conference.
ACC: none. The ACC needs Notre Dame to lose. Even then, an at-large berth is unlikely for the highest-ranked team that doesn’t win the conference championship.
Big 12: none. The Big 12 needs Notre Dame to lose. Even then, an at-large berth is extremely unlikely for the highest-ranked team that doesn’t win the conference championship.
Big Ten: Indiana, Oregon, and Penn State. Barring upsets, all three of the Big Ten’s at-large teams would be well-positioned to host opening-round games.
SEC: Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee. We are fast approaching the point at which the SEC media machine — and by that, we mean ESPN — suggests the conference receive four at-large bids, not the presumed three. Watch for it during the selection show on Tuesday.
Independent: Notre Dame. Beat Army and USC, and the Irish are in the tournament. That’s a given. Far less certain is whether they will be seeded high enough (No. 5-8) to earn a home game in the opening round.
Bubble teams
Expansion of the CFP has created room for a bubble comparable to the NCAA Tournament. The size of the bubble will ebb and flow throughout the season based on the latest results.
ACC: Miami. We have included the Hurricanes here only as a backstop in case Notre Dame loses and there’s enough carnage in the SEC to open the door for a second ACC team. But it’s unlikely.
Big 12: none. Parity and chaos are great for regular-season viewing and terrible for earning multiple postseason bids.
Big Ten: none. With four elite teams and then a muddled mass of mediocrity wholly devoid of at-large contenders, the Big Ten has helped simplify the selection process.
SEC: Mississippi and Texas A&M. The Bulldogs and Aggies could very well end up in the CFP field. The important piece is to understand the SEC has six teams in the mix for four — and possibly five — total bids.
Independent: none. Washington State was eliminated from contention when the Cougars could not stop New Mexico’s running game. And honestly, if you can’t stop the Lobos, you don’t deserve a bid.
Projected matchups
The No. 5 through 12 seeds will play opening-round games on the campus of the higher seed, with the winners advancing to the quarterfinals on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. (The semifinals are Jan. 9 and 10, followed by the championship game 10 days later.)
No. 8 Penn State vs. No. 9 Notre Dame. If these projections become reality, we know which opening round game ABC would want for prime time on Dec. 21, with no competition from the NFL. Winner plays No. 1 Ohio State
No. 7 Indiana vs. No. 10 Alabama. One of the appealing aspects of the new CFP format is the potential for warm-weather teams to play in outdoor stadiums in the Midwest. Winner plays No. 2 Texas
No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 11 Tennessee. The selection committee won’t manipulate the seeds to avoid rematches of regular-season games. Which is understandable but unfortunate. Winner plays No. 3 SMU
No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 12 Boise State. Oregon would take this pathway — a home game against the Broncos followed by a neutral-site date with Colorado — in half a heartbeat. (Hello, semifinals.) Winner plays No. 4 Colorado
Looking ahead: Week 12
Each week, the Hotline will examine a handful of games that could impact the CFP race for automatic and at-large bids.
(All times Pacific)
Indiana at Ohio State (9 a.m. on Fox): The winner effectively clinches a berth in the conference championship against Oregon. (And that winner will be Ohio State.)
Brigham Young at Arizona State (12:30 p.m. on ESPN): There isn’t a bingo card in the known universe that featured the Cougars and Sun Devils squaring off in a playoff elimination game.
Colorado at Kansas (12:30 p.m. on Fox): We would not term this a trap game for the Buffaloes, because the stakes are enormous. But they are catching KU, which just upset Brigham Young, at the wrong time.
Army vs. Notre Dame (4 p.m. on NBC): An Army victory would push the entire selection process much closer to total chaos, which is the endgame everyone should root for.
*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716
*** Follow me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline