Low fertility rates, aging to shrink NY population, study shows

ALBANY, N.Y. (NEWS10)-- The state's population could shrink by more than two million people over the next 25 years, a report from Cornell University states. The 13% decline is due to low fertility rates and aging, according to the report.

The report, from researchers from the Program on Applied Demographics (PAD), is an updated round of data from projections produced in 2018. The projected population decrease showcases new data, including the 2020 Census.

"The projections confirm what we have been seeing for some time, which is that if the demographic trends in the state do not change, its population will continue to decline," PAD lead analyst Jan Vink said. "Conservative estimates suggest a population decrease of 1 million by 2050, but we think an even greater decline is more likely."

According to the report, the number of people from birth to age 17 will decline between 10% and 25% over the next 25 years. The most aggressive scenario is projecting New York's population will drop from 19.7 million to 17 million by 2050.

The new data can be used to help describe future population makeup. It can also allow policymakers to develop strategies and policies related to childcare, eldercare, education and housing.

"This is the most-requested data product we produce," said Cornell Population Center Director Matt Hall. "Policymakers want to know to what extent the crystal ball of demography can project the future of New York state’s population so they can plan for the future. It’s an important collaboration and we’re grateful to our partners at the state and federal level for the opportunity to serve the public interest through our research."