Potential trade target: Nico Hoerner
The Cubs second baseman has a high-contact approach.
The Royals are seeking an on-base hitter to set the table for MVP candidate Bobby Witt Jr., and could use offensive upgrades at second, third, and the outfield. There are reports they have discussed potentially acquiring Reds second baseman Jonathan India. But another infielder from the National League Central Division that could become available is Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner.
According to a report from ESPN’s Jeff Passan, the Cubs could look to move Hoerner if they believe top prospect Matt Shaw is ready for the big leagues.
Nico Hoerner, second baseman: The Cubs don’t have to trade the 27-year-old this winter, but with Matt Shaw big-league-ready, they could use Hoerner to land a starting pitcher. Hoerner’s ability to play shortstop as well is appealing to teams interested in middle-infield help
Like India, Hoerner was a 2018 first-round pick. He is a high-contact, low-power hitter with terrific defense. Over the past three seasons, Hoerner is third among all second basemen in fWAR at 12.8
The right-handed hitter has been a pretty consistent player, posting an above-average wRC+ in each of the past four seasons. Hoerner has been one of the best contact hitters in the big leagues - over the past three seasons he has the fourth-highest contract rate. Since he debuted in 2019, his strikeout rate of 12 percent is 12th-lowest among all hitters. This year he played in a career-high 151 games and hit .273/.335/.373 with 31 steals and the lowest strikeout rate of his career at 10.3 percent.
Hoerner has little power - he has only reached double-digit home run totals once in his career - 10 home runs in 2022 - but he did hit a career-high 35 doubles this year. By putting the ball in play he hits for a high average, but he has a below-average walk rate of 6.9 percent.
He stole 43 bases in 2023 and he is seventh in baseball in Baserunning Runs over the past two seasons. A natural shortstop, Hoerner won a Gold Glove at second in 2023, and was fourth among second basemen in Outs Above Average this year.
Following the season, Hoerner had surgery on the flexor tendon in his right forearm, which could make him doubtful for the start of next season. Pushing up behind Hoerner is Matt Shaw, a 2023 first-round pick who reached Triple-A this season after being named the #31 top prospect by Baseball America. Hoerner signed a multi-year contract that will pay him $11.5 million in 2025 and $12 million in 2026 before he hits free agency.
The Cubs are looking to contend, so a deal for a pitcher like Brady Singer might make sense to them.
Teams between two contending teams is difficult, since neither team wants to trade away a valuable player that can help them win now. But if each team trades from a position of strength to fill another need, it can be mutually beneficial. The Royals have deep starting pitching, and can use it to find the leadoff hitter they desperately need. But it does risk weakening a strength that may be needed next summer if other pitchers wear down.