Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Would Be ‘Devastating’ Without Israeli Freedom to Enforce Terms: Defense Expert

The Biden administration’s Mideast envoy arrived in Israel on Wednesday to advance ceasefire negotiations between Israel and the Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah — a deal that one defense expert said could be “devastating” for Israel.

Amos Hochstein, who arrived in Jerusalem after meetings in Beirut earlier in the day, was scheduled to meet with Israel’s Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer to brief him on Lebanon’s response to the ceasefire proposal, according to a report in Axios. Hochstein was also due to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz on Thursday, the report said.

After a two-hour meeting a day earlier with Nabih Berri, the Hezbollah-aligned Lebanese parliamentary speaker who is leading the Iran-backed terrorist group’s mediation efforts, Hochstein said the proposal was “a real opportunity to bring this conflict to an end.”

Hochstein said his first conversation with Berri was “very constructive and very helpful,” and that “additional progress” was made in a follow-up meeting. He did not stipulate the sticking points of the deal.

But retired Israeli Brig. Gen. Amir Avivi, who leads the Israel Defense and Security Forum, a group of former military commanders, warned that the proposed deal would have disastrous consequences for Israel if it failed to rein in Iran.

“Any agreement with Lebanon will have to include Iran’s full exit from the country, total de-arming of Hezbollah, and the entry of Lebanon into the brotherhood of the moderate Sunni states with Israel,” Aviv told The Algemeiner.

Hochstein’s proposal, based on enforcing UN Security Council Resolution 1701, calls for Hezbollah’s withdrawal to north of the Litani River and the disarmament of its forces in southern Lebanon. The buffer zone would be under the jurisdiction of the Lebanese army and UN peacekeeping forces.

For nearly two decades, the UN resolution, which brought an end to the 2006 Second Lebanon War, was largely ignored by Hezbollah, which has continued to wield significant political and military influence in Lebanon. The group amassed a vast arsenal of missiles and constructed an extensive network of tunnels along the Israeli border in violation of the agreement.

As part of the ceasefire deal, Israel has insisted on retaining the right to conduct military operations against Hezbollah if the group attempts to rearm or rebuild its infrastructure — a stipulation that has met resistance from Lebanese officials, who argue it infringes on national sovereignty.

“We will not compromise on our military freedom of action in Lebanon if the agreement is violated. This is a red line. If Lebanon refuses to back down, we will continue to strike and operate deep within Lebanese territory until it complies,” a senior Israeli official was quoted by the Hebrew-language Makor Rishon newspaper as saying.

The anonymous official also said that Lebanon has rejected Israel’s demand for an enhanced monitoring force for the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), which Israel argued has failed to prevent Hezbollah’s buildup of power in recent years.

Israeli officials were also quoted by Israel’s Channel 12 as saying that a deal could be signed “within a week.”

A senior US official told the news channel: “Significant progress has been made; it is very close. Now is the time to make decisions.”

Hezbollah’s Secretary-General, Naim Qassem, confirmed that the organization had reviewed the ceasefire proposal but emphasized that the decision to cease hostilities now rests with Israel. He also stressed that the terrorist group possesses the capability to sustain its current operational pace over an extended period unless Israel agrees to the proposed terms.

“We are advancing on two fronts: the battlefield and the negotiations. We do not pause our operations on the ground while waiting for the talks to conclude,” Qassem said in a televised address. Behind him was a picture of his slain predecessor, Hassan Nasrallah, who Israel killed in a targeted airstrike in September.

“While the losses we’ve endured are painful, we have resilient leaders with remarkable courage, and we’ve managed to recover and move forward despite the setbacks,” he added.

Avivi stressed that a deal that does not allow Israel the freedom of action necessary to enforce its terms inside Lebanon would threaten Israeli national security and throw away a major opportunity.

“Any deal that doesn’t include Israel’s ability to impose it and prevent any future build up of Hezbollah will be devastating to Israel and will keep Hezbollah and Iranian control over Lebanon,” Avivi said. He added that such an agreement would also result in surrendering a “unique, historical opportunity to liberate Lebanon from the Shiite axis.”

Iran, which is ruled by a Shiite Muslim theocracy, has created what its supporters have dubbed an “axis of resistance” across the Middle East, aimed at destroying Israel and combating US and broader Western influence. For decades, Hezbollah has been the regime’s most powerful proxy.

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