Oscar odds update: Brady Corbet now predicted to win Best Director for ‘The Brutalist’

There’s a new frontrunner in Gold Derby’s Oscar odds for Best Director: Brady Corbet for “The Brutalist.”

The American filmmaker has broken his tie with Sean Baker (“Anora”) to claim the No. 1 position on our chart for the upcoming 2025 Oscars. Note that it’s still quite early in this awards season, and things could keep changing as our experts, editors, and users continue to update their predictions.

The A24 fictional drama centers around Adrien Brody‘s character László Tóth, a Hungarian-Jewish architect and Holocaust survivor who emigrates to the United States in the 1940s in the hopes of achieving the American Dream. While László is waiting for his wife (Felicity Jones) to join him, he starts working with his cousin (Alessandro Nivola) at a furniture store, and he eventually comes into contact with a wealthy industrialist (Guy Pearce).

This would be Corbet’s first career Oscar nomination, after previously directing films like “The Childhood of a Leader” (2015) and “Vox Lux” (2018), and the TV limited series “The Crowded Room” (2023).

Corbet currently leads our Best Director Oscar predictions with 39/10 odds, followed by Baker in second place with 4/1 odds. The other three like co-nominees, as of this writing, are Jacques Audiard (“Emilia Perez”) at 13/2 odds, Edward Berger (“Conclave”) at 13/2 odds, and Denis Villeneuve (“Dune: Part Two”) at 15/2 odds.

Out of Gold Derby’s 33 Oscar experts from major media outlets, the following 11 have Corbet in their top positions to win: Brian Truitt (USA Today), Debra Birnbaum (Gold Derby), Jacqueline Coley (Rotten Tomatoes), Joyce Eng (Gold Derby), Marcus Jones (Indiewire), Matt Neglia (Next Best Picture), Michael Musto (Queerty), Nikki Novak (Fandango), Peter Travers (ABC), Tariq Khan (Gold Derby), and Wilson Morales (BlackFilmandTV).

As for our 12 website staff editors, five of them believe Corbet will prevail at the 97th Academy Awards: Daniel Montgomery, Debra Birnbaum, Denton Davidson, Joyce Eng, and Marcus James Dixon.

Finally, these 11 out of our top 24 users, who did the best predicting last year’s Oscar nominations, are backing Corbet: AndrewMilito, Austinmh02, BlakeB, Brayer88, GuitarLord25, Jon Ablett, TheGreatestPredictor, hozier, lady_bird, rkenny4, and swnana.

Have YOU made your Oscar predictions yet? It’s fun and easy — get started right now! The nominations will be announced on Jan. 17, 2025 and the Academy Awards ceremony is scheduled for Sunday, March 2 on ABC.

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