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Will Robert Downey Jr. earn a 2025 Tony nomination for ‘McNeal’ following 2024 Emmy and Oscar wins?

Over the past 10 years Pulitzer Prize-winning playwright Ayad Akhtar has batted a thousand at the Tony Awards. Both of his past Broadway outings — “Disgraced” in 2014 and “Junk” in 2017 — were nominated for Best Play, making him one of only three dozen writers in the history of the Tonys to have two noms for the top honor. His newest drama, “McNeal,” opened in September and stars Oscar winner Robert Downey Jr., who is making his Broadway debut in the role of a troubled, irascible, and extremely successful novelist.

With the incredibly popular Downey at the helm, fresh off his awards-sweeping “Oppenheimer” performance plus an Emmy for his lifestyle program “Downey’s Dream Cars,” “McNeal” will try to accomplish something no other Akhtar play has done before by earning a Tony acting nomination.

Akhtar’s Broadway bow with “Disgraced,” for which he won the Pulitzer Prize for Drama in 2013, starred a quintet of actors in a slow-burn drama about religion, politics, and identity. Beyond praise for the play itself, critics were effusive about members of the ensemble. In the lead role, Hari Dhillon earned especially strong notices. Former New York Times critic Charles Isherwood said that he brought “a coiled intensity to his performance.” Karen Pittman, now known for “The Morning Show,” also received praise, deemed by Isherwood to be “magnetic and funny.” Despite these shout-outs, neither received Tony nominations.

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The playwright’s next foray into Broadway theater was his capitalist takedown “Junk,” an examination of the junk bond craze of 1980s Wall Street inspired by the real-life figure Michael Milken. New York theater stalwart Steven Pasquale starred as Milken’s fictional stand-in, Robert Merkin, leading an ensemble of 23 players. While reviews of the show itself were decidedly mixed, the actor earned strong notices. Adam Feldman (Time Out New York) called him “chilling” and Sara Holdren (Vulture) said he was “darkly charismatic.” Pasquale ultimately missed out on a Tony bid, and he’s still waiting for his first nomination after 15 years on Broadway.

Unlike “Disgraced” and “Junk,” “McNeal” earned more negative reviews from critics when it opened two months ago. Jesse Green (New York Times) called it “turgid” and Feldman wrote, “Nothing in ‘McNeal’ is convincing: The characters are thin, the timelines are off, the situations are at once implausible and cliché.” This response to the production likely means Akhtar’s perfect track record will come to an end and makes it difficult to see nominators embracing Downey despite the meatiness of his role. As novelist Jacob McNeal, the actor does get to sink his teeth into challenging material, from alcoholism to damaging self-doubt, self-destructive behavior, a fractured relationship with his son, and accusations of multiple forms of plagiarism.

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Downey is also making his debut in a very competitive year for actors in plays. This fall has already seen strong performances from Cole Escola (“Oh, Mary!”), Peter Friedman (“JOB”), Daniel Dae Kim (“Yellow Face”), and Kit Connor (“Romeo + Juliet”). The spring will see more big names join the fold, including fellow Oscar winners Denzel Washington (“Othello”) and George Clooney (“Good Night, and Good Luck”), plus folks from “Cult of Love,” “Eureka Day,” and other shows once the category placements of their actors are determined.

And while it never helps one’s chances to have a show shutter in the fall – long before Tony nominators convene to fill out their ballots – voters have demonstrated that they have very long memories. Last year two of the five nominees were from closed productions (Leslie Odom Jr. from “Purlie Victorious” and Liev Schreiber from “Doubt”). The year prior all but one of the nominees were from shuttered productions: Yahya Abdul-Mateen II and Corey Hawkins (“Topdog/Underdog”), Stephen McKinley Henderson (“Between Riverside and Crazy”), and Wendell Pierce (“Death of a Salesman”). “McNeal” concludes its limited run on Sunday, November 24.

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