Breaking down Arizona State’s tiebreaker scenarios as Big 12 title drive churns on
Kenny Dillingham did not vanish into a mosh pit of delirious students following Arizona State’s latest triumph.
It was a road game, after all. Kansas State fans departed the Bill Snyder Family Stadium wondering how their 20th-ranked Wildcats could lose by double digits to an unranked 7.5-point underdog.
But from ASU’s perspective, the victory was plenty worthy of a camera-hogging, coach-swallowing, student-led field storming.
Forget the mid-October win over Utah. Dillingham’s signature victory came last weekend in The Little Apple (Manhattan, Kansas) as the Sun Devils produced a 24-14 win, pronounced themselves a major factor in the Big 12 title race and inched closer to the sport’s biggest stage.
While there are no guarantees, the Big 12 winner is expected to receive a berth in the College Football Playoff.
The Sun Devils (8-2/5-2) have won three games in a row and are tied with Iowa State for third place, one game behind Colorado and Brigham Young.
How can they get from here to there — from third place to a conference championship and the CFP?
The path is difficult and possibly complicated, especially if the Sun Devils lose one of their two remaining games. (In that case, their options would narrow considerably.)
If they defeat Brigham Young this weekend and win the Territorial Cup in Tucson, the Sun Devils would finish with a 7-2 record in conference play. At worst, they would be tied for second place with BYU and Iowa State, one game behind Colorado.
The Big 12 tiebreaker process starts with head-to-head results. But in the event of a three-team tie in which the tied teams did not all play each other — and Iowa State doesn’t play either ASU or BYU — the next step is required.
That step is the following:
“The records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage against all common conference opponents played by all other teams involved in the tie.”
ASU, BYU and Iowa State will conclude the regular season having played four common opponents: Kansas, Kansas State, UCF and Utah.
But there is no need to wait. The Sun Devils have already won the tiebreaker.
They are 4-0 against the common opponents, while BYU is 3-1 and Iowa State is 1-1. It doesn’t matter if the Cyclones win their last two. They cannot match ASU’s record.
If you’re scoring at home:
— If the Sun Devils beat BYU and Arizona, BYU finishes with a victory over Houston and the Cyclones beat Kansas State and Utah, then ASU would win the three-team tie and advance to the title game.
— If Iowa State loses one of its final two, the Sun Devils would move on: Their head-to-head win over BYU would settle the two-team tie.
— And if BYU loses its finale and Iowa State wins out, the Sun Devils would move on courtesy of a better record than Iowa State against the two teams’ common opponents.
As long as they handle BYU and Arizona, the Sun Devils will land in the conference championship against Colorado with a trip to the CFP at stake.
And that would be a scene worthy of a mosh pit — in an alternate universe.
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