Ron's choice: Replacing Rubio pits his future against his loyalty to Trump

Pressure, pressure — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is feeling it from Team Trump.

Unfolding is a Shakespearean power struggle between President-elect Donald Trump and DeSantis’s political future. The conflict was triggered when Trump nominated Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) as secretary of State. Lara Trump, his daughter-in-law and current Republican National Committee co-chair, instantly emerged as his replacement.

Rubio won his third reelection in November 2022, so DeSantis must appoint someone to fill his seat for the next two years. In November 2026, the winner of a special election will finish the remaining two years of Rubio’s term. In 2028, Florida voters will elect a senator for a new six-year term.

The stakes are high. Among Florida Republicans, “America is now Florida,” reflecting how the state has morphed into the epicenter of GOP political power. On Nov. 5, Trump won the former swing state by a jaw-dropping 13 percentage points, solidifying its status as one of America's reddest large states.

Therefore, whomever DeSantis appoints to the Senate could become a major Republican player. And as an incumbent, the appointed senator would stand a strong chance of winning the 2026 special election and full term in 2028.

That reality presents a potentially career-altering roadblock for DeSantis, a presidentially ambitious 46-year-old who will be term-limited out of office in early January 2027. DeSantis is now paying for his failed overzealous aspirations.

After winning his 2022 reelection in a 19-point landslide, the impatient DeSantis announced for president in May 2023. By every metric, his disastrous primary campaign was a case study in what not to do. After Trump crushed him to take the 2024 Republican nomination, DeSantis brushed himself off and returned as the successful governor of the nation's third most populous state.

Once DeSantis leaves the governor's mansion, he will need another high-profile office or Fox News show to remain relevant. The most obvious path is through the Senate, where he could park until the next opportunity arises. In theory, DeSantis could run for president anytime until 2056, when he would be 78 — Trump’s current age.

This is what makes DeSantis's appointment so essential to his political dreams. From stage right, enter Lara, Eric Trump's wife and MAGA “It Girl.” After the Rubio announcement, she made it abundantly clear throughout all Fox News programming that she wanted the title “Senator Trump.” 

Lara has political momentum after successfully co-chairing the Republican National Committee to a White House, Senate and House trifecta. During the campaign, she was always the sculpted-to-perfection, camera-ready spokeswoman for the Trump agenda. Lara told Sean Hannity, for example, that she "would love to serve the people of Florida."

Cue the flood of high-profile endorsements: Senators Rick Scott (R-Fla.), Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), Katie Britt (R-Ala.),  Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.), and Pam Bondi — Trump’s new pick for attorney general — with more expected.

Adding family heft, on Sunday at Fox News, Lara’s brother-in-law, Donald Trump Jr., proclaimed, “I think she would be great.” Earlier this week on News Nation, Scott (DeSantis's predecessor as governor) boldly predicted, “I think he’s going to pick Lara Trump, because he knows she is clearly qualified.”

Why all the “Senator Trump” rah-rah? A beneficial MAGA incentive forces DeSantis to show “loyalty” to King Donald for his “disloyal” presidential run. Will DeSantis play “sacrificial lamb,” surrendering the Senate seat he had been eyeing for his future?

Lara would keep the seat warm and likely win in 2026 and 2028. After all, Florida is Trump Country, and America is now Florida. Furthermore, she could be Trump’s eyes and ears in the Senate, reporting any hint of disloyalty among the troops newly led by Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.), who bested the MAGA-backed Scott to get his new post.

DeSantis’s impending decision has garnered attention and speculation. On Nov. 18, the governor said he “would decide in January” and announced his criteria in a post on X: “Florida deserves a senator who will help President Trump deliver on his election mandate, be strong on immigration and border security, take on the entrenched bureaucracy and administrative state, reverse the nation’s fiscal decline, be animated by conservative principles, and has a proven record of results.”

Was DeSantis describing himself? It sounds like a future “DeSantis for Senate” campaign ad. And maybe it was since no Florida law prohibits the governor from appointing himself. Moreover, DeSantis is a native “Florida man,” so anything is possible and acceptable and then forgotten.

Still, appointing himself would be risky. It worked out well for only one of the nine governors who tried it previously — all the others went on to lose, no matter how popular they had been as governor. In addition to that, DeSantis could expect category-five winds from an outraged Team Trump.

A similar bold course of action, albeit one with identical consequences, would be for DeSantis to resign from office and let Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nuñez — upon becoming governor — appoint him to Rubio’s seat.

There is also the “keep it in the family” option where DeSantis appoints his wife Casey, who is popular and equally ambitious, as the placeholder senator until the 2026 special election. Then, from the governor's mansion throughout 2026, DeSantis could launch his Senate campaign — a playbook successfully used in 2018 by then-governor now-Sen. Scott.

This “placeholder” option continues to be widely discussed, with DeSantis’s Chief of Staff James Uthmeier mentioned most frequently.

DeSantis knows this two-year Senate appointment reflects an ongoing battle with Trump forces working against his future, which explains the orchestrated exuberance for Sen. Lara Trump. To that point, in July, an influential Trump insider texted me, “Ron is finished. He will never hold public office again. I will do whatever is necessary to ensure that that is the case. Loyalty matters. He is a devoid of character.”

“Loyalty matters,” as reflected already in Trump’s Cabinet appointments. DeSantis showed disloyalty when he launched his ill-fated presidential campaign. But now he can show sacrificial loyalty by “kissing the ring” and appointing Sen. Lara Trump.

DeSantis has a choice. He can do what is best for himself, or he can acquiesce to Team Trump's pressure campaign and hope there's a reward for his loyalty.

Myra Adams is an opinion writer who served on the creative team of two Republican presidential campaigns, in 2004 and 2008.