Oscar Experts Typing: Best Supporting Actress is shaping up to be a musical battle

Welcome to Oscar Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Oscar race — via Slack, of course. This week, we revisit Best Supporting Actress, where a new contender is ascendant.

Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! I feel like this week’s column might be… popular. “Wicked” is out in theaters now, riding a wave of pre-release hype that hasn’t been seen in these parts since “Barbie.” Fans are fanning, stans are stanning, and I’ve got Ariana Grande winning Best Supporting Actress. We knew this would happen once you planted the seed, “Inception”-style, that typical Best Supporting Actress winners from musicals are more like Grande’s performance than what Zoe Saldaña does in “Emilia Pérez.” So, of course, I’ve made the swap — Ariana fans, tweet at me! — and while I’m always reactionary, it seems I’m not alone. Several pundits have gone the way of Grande, and wouldn’t it be funny if she becomes a Best Supporting Actress sweeper once the televised awards start in January? My other move since we’ve last typed about this race was to land back on Danielle Deadwyler. We’ve discussed how she might be a lone nominee for “The Piano Lesson,” and as a result, she may miss the cut again at the Oscars no matter how much Film Twitter wants her to happen. But she’s also campaigning a lot — much more anecdotally than she did two years ago for “Till.” It feels to me like she could get in even as a lone nominee by sheer force of will: She kind of reminds me of Brian Tyree Henry for “Causeway,” who was nominated for a great performance in a relatively invisible movie. Being on Netflix, “The Piano Lesson” won’t be as underseen, and I think that helps push her over the top. My other two spots are being held by Isabella Rossellini for “Conclave” and Felicity Jones for “The Brutalist.” Rossellini continues to feel secure to me — “Conclave” is a hit, it has become a consensus movie across ages and demographics, she’s campaigning hard, and she’s an OG nepo baby with deep relationships within the industry. Jones, on the other hand, has me terribly vexed. We haven’t hit peak “The Brutalist” yet and it feels like that movie has a second gear it can shift into once the critics groups start giving out awards. But Jones has really taken a backseat in terms of visibility to Adrien Brody and Guy Pearce, and while she could easily be the Emily Blunt to their Cillian Murphy and Robert Downey Jr., what if she isn’t? And if she isn’t, does that make it more likely Selena Gomez can crash the party alongside Ariana Grande? Or will Film Twitter get their Saoirse Ronan nomination? Or is Monica Barbaro the dark horse we’ve been waiting for?

joyceeng: It was just a matter of time before you were back on your anti-Jones beat. She’s definitely the most low-key currently in terms of buzz and press, but what she has going for her is not just the presumed strength of “The Brutalist” but the fact that she doesn’t really cross demos with a lot of the other contenders. She would be the “highbrow” vote and the only other person really in that lane is Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, who’s in eighth place. But Jones has a much larger part (and a clear Oscar clip), and we’ve discussed how “Nickel Boys'” audacious first-person POV doesn’t maximize the actors’ performances. Gomez feels like she’s losing ground between “Emilia Pérez’s” divisive reception by the people and Grande’s surge, but her film remains more liked by the industry. And she’s not going down without a fight. She’s got Meryl Streep out there stumping for her and is the latest Hollywood Reporter cover girl. Ronan also isn’t going down without a fight. Sure, she’s got two movies, but I don’t think I’ve ever seen her on the trail this much. She was stanning “Maestro” and Carey Mulligan once again in her Elle “Women in Hollywood” speech and shouted out all the other honorees. Honestly, with all the campaigning she’s done, I’m shocked you haven’t put her back in. So unlike you. We’ve talked about this before, but this year is a test for Ronan because her previous four nominations have been for Best Picture nominees, and there’s a good chance that neither “The Outrun” nor “Blitz” make the top category. “Blitz” — out on Apple TV+ now! — obviously has more nomination potential but could hit below the line without her. I can already picture you slotting Barbaro in next week after you see “A Complete Unknown.” But with all this movement, does this mean you’ve dropped Margaret Qualley?

SEE Oscar Experts Typing: Debating the Best Actor dark horse nominees

Christopher Rosen: *Daniel Plainview voice* I’ve abandoned Qualley. I’ve gone on detox for “The Substance.” We had a lot of passionate fans yelling at us on YouTube over the last couple of weeks and I went bullish on it as a result. Bullying works, etc. But then I saw “Hard Truths,” and then I saw other podcasters talking about how actual Academy members have spoken about how much they don’t like the movie. Can it still get in all these different places? Absolutely. But I’ve cooled a bit — in the aggregate, the vibes feel like Charles Melton last year but make it a whole-ass movie — and so Qualley has since been dropped (along with Best Picture, Best Actress, and Best Original Screenplay). Ronan, I don’t know what to do with her. When we saw “Blitz” before many, we both left it with a shrug. She’s great, but she’s always great, and nothing about the performance stood out as a passion pick. It’s possible that she makes it in — although she’s better in “The Outrun,” it feels like Sony Pictures Classics is having a tough time getting that fetch to happen — but I’m not sure she can go all the way. Barbaro is playing Joan Baez and that feels like it has Oscar potential just because of the predilection to nominate actors for playing real people. But I don’t think the response to “A Complete Unknown” was all that undeniable — and I would only predict Barbaro if I thought the movie was making it into the Best Picture field too. Thus far, I don’t know if I think that. Let’s play devil’s advocate here. I dropped Gomez and jumped Grande to first place. You’ve got them both in there (with Deadwyler on the outside). Is it possible both of them miss, with each competing for the same plot of pop star land, and then highbrow picks like Ellis and/or Ronan get those nominations. She would have been a lone nominee, so it’s not the best comp, but why do I keep thinking of Jennifer Lopez for “Hustlers” when it comes to Grande and Gomez?

joyceeng: The only thing they have in common is that they are actors-turned-pop stars. You’ve already laid out the key difference with J.Lo: She would’ve been a lone nominee. Gomez and Grande feel more like a Lady Gaga since they’re in two films that will be seen by voters. I think that’s the main thing: You need people to want to see your movie, and then hope they like you. Neither might make it, but they’re both already better positioned than Lopez, who’s back in contention for “Unstoppable”! The edge Grande might have over Gomez is that it’s really hard not to be utterly charmed by her performance as Glinda. It’s a lively, hilarious turn and she has the audience in the palm of her hand from the start. That’s no knock on Gomez — I think she’s quite good in “Emilia Pérez,” but it’s a different type of movie and Jessi is a completely different type of character. Now as I’m glancing at the top 10 and beyond, Grande is kinda the apple in a bag of oranges. Everyone else is in a more “serious” film — or their performance is more dramatic (Grande has dramatic elements, but it’s largely comedic) — or a body horror film that will alienate some voters. I’m not gonna put her in first yet, but could this be what pushes her across the line?

SEE Experts slugfest: ‘Wicked’ and ‘Gladiator II’ battle for Oscar attention

Christopher Rosen: I keep going back to what you said a couple of weeks ago about the type of musical performances that wins Best Supporting Actress. It’s Glinda to the letter, and maybe the only thing keeping people from going fully aboard the hype train is that “Wicked” is considered more populist than “West Side Story,” “Les Misérables,” and “Chicago.” But in this year’s race, that popularity is probably a feature, not a bug. You mentioned that top 10 and beyond, and one name I wanted to flag before we sign off is Natasha Lyonne. “His Three Daughters” has suffered the same fate as “A Different Man” it feels like, in that it’s an acclaimed film that got dropped in September and washed away by festival hype and other releases. (Note to distributors: Avoid September for real contenders!) But Lyonne stands as good a chance as any to win at the New York Film Critics Circle and I feel like regional groups could make room for her too. Any shot here, or will she be bookmarked by awards voters for her next project?

joyceeng: Some regionals might bite, but it’s difficult to see her building momentum for a film for which she’d also be a lone nominee. I had Lyonne in at SAG once upon a time but have since jettisoned her. An NYFCC win would be very them, but there are several options for the “cool” pick this year and she might not, uh, be that girl.