Trump’s search for a treasury secretary who will support tariffs

In this week’s “Make Me Smart” newsletter, we delve into the immediate challenges that will face Donald Trump’s treasury secretary, how consumers can prepare for potential new tariffs and we do the numbers on volunteerism during the winter holidays.

The News Fix

Who will be the next treasury secretary? As of this morning, we still don’t know. President-elect Donald Trump has taken his time deciding whom he’ll nominate for this Cabinet position, with a handful of top contenders, including hedge fund manager Scott Bessent, Apollo Global Management CEO Marc Rowan and former Federal Reserve Board member and banker Kevin Warsh.  

The Treasury Department manages the federal government’s finances. That includes collecting taxes, supervising banks, managing currency and buying and selling government debt as needed to keep things running smoothly. It also helps sell the president’s economic policies to Wall Street, Main Street and the rest of the world, acting as an economic diplomat on behalf of the White House. 

Importantly, the secretary also ensures the federal government pays its bills on time and sounds the alarm when the government’s coffers reach the debt ceiling, an artificially set limit on what the government can spend that Congress has had to raise about 80 times since 1960. The federal debt ceiling goes back into effect on Jan. 2, after Congress suspended it in 2023.

Searching for a tariff stan. One likely challenge for Trump is finding someone for the job who will support his tariff agenda and can keep financial markets calm. Reuters reported that hundreds of companies, including Walmart, are already discussing passing the cost of tariffs on to consumers.

Smart in a shot

Since Election Day, Marketplace has been reporting on the potential consequences of the big tariff hikes Trump promised on the campaign trail, taxes that end up driving inflation and costing Americans money. That’s why “Make Me Smart” listener Deany Goode asked us, “How should people be preparing for the tariffs?”

Businesses have been boosting their orders for imported goods and materials ahead of Trump’s inauguration, but economists caution against consumer panic. Even if the Trump administration imposes tariffs early on in its second term, prices usually take several months to adjust. 

That said, Trump’s proposed tariffs would almost certainly raise prices — the Peterson Institute for International Economics estimates that they’ll cost the typical American household more than $2,600 a year. So consumers should psychologically and financially prepare to spend more for the same stuff, especially products that heavily rely on Chinese manufacturing and raw materials.A recent National Retail Federation study estimated clothing prices could rise 12.5%. Toys? about 36%. Footwear? Nearly 20%. Big-ticket devices like laptops, video game consoles and smartphones could also surge. The Consumer Technology Association estimates that laptop prices could rise as much as 46%, an average increase of $357. Consumers who have planned bigger purchases and can afford it may have incentives to buy sooner rather than later.

The Numbers

Thanksgiving’s coming up, and many Americans will be lending a helping hand in their communities over the holiday weekend. Let’s do the numbers on volunteerism.

78 million

That’s about how many people in the U.S., 28.3% of the total population, who volunteered with a nonprofit between September 2022 and September 2023, according to the latest Census Bureau and AmeriCorps survey. More than 54% of Americans said they had informally helped out a neighbor.

$167.2 billion

That’s the economic value of the nearly 5 billion hours that volunteers worked, according to the same Census Bureau-AmeriCorps survey. The average value of a single hour of volunteer work: $33.49, much higher than any city or state’s minimum wage.

50%

Volunteerism typically increases 50% during November and December, driven in part by people’s religious and moral values.

28%

A little more than a quarter of all employers offered paid time off to volunteer last year, according to the Society for Human Resource Management.

19.4 percentage points

Who’s most likely to volunteer? College graduates are more likely to volunteer, on average, by  19.4 percentage points than those with only a high school diploma. University of Georgia researchers found that people living in disadvantaged communities or areas with higher economic inequality were less likely to volunteer.

None of us is as smart as all of us

Tell us what’s making you smarter at smarter@marketplace.org. We’d love to include your recommendation in a future newsletter.

Climbing the “mountain of greatness”

Many people tie their self-worth to their work, but taken to an extreme, it can lead folks to believe that without career success, they’re nothing. Writer Ellen Rolfes is reading a newsletter by career coach David Spinks about how we can reassess our professional and personal identities. 

Wave power

Newport, Oregon, is installing buoy-like contraptions several miles off its shoreline to convert Pacific Ocean waves into 20 megawatts of energy. The goal is to get more clean energy to the town, which often relies on expensive diesel fuel. Editor Virginia K. Smith is reading a Washington Post story about the first large-scale commercial wave energy project in the U.S. (gift link). 

Cozy comfort, brought to you by AI

The first generation of artificial intelligence tech products have names like Rabbit, Humane and Friend. They’re marketed as nonthreatening devices that can soften the edges of a world plagued with pandemics, economic instability and political upheaval. Producer Courtney Bergsieker is reading a New Yorker article about the immersive escapism tech companies are selling, and why it may all be a fantasy. Read the New Yorker piece, then listen to Marketplace reporter Matt Levin’s story on why many AI companies choose to anthropomorphize their products.