Winter season could be too warm

AUSTIN (KXAN) -- There was a time when a forecast of a warmer-than-normal winter was a good thing. In parts of the country where winters could be brutal because of cold temperatures and a good amount of snow, having a three-month outlook just made people feel better.

Times have changed.

In this time of global warming due to climate change, there are elements of warm winters that are just not good for the world. Here in Central Texas, the Climate Prediction Center is calling for a warmer-than-normal meteorological winter, a period that begins on Dec. 1 and runs through the last day of February.

What are the negative possibilities of temperatures being above their 30-year averages in winter? Let's start with how there could be potential damage to crops blooming early. The plants are placed in danger of late frosts.

We can also see a disruption in the ecological balance of nature. Plants blooming earlier than usual create a potential mismatch with pollinators important to that balance. Insects and other animals, confused by the temperature change, may not adapt to the unusual timing of the seasons.

Here at home, the unseasonable warmth during the winter will often be a reason that we feel extreme heat during the late spring, summer, and, potentially, early autumn. These heat events are already being felt not only in Central Texas but across the country. It seems like each year we see more and more people succumb to extreme heat events. In fact, the United States Environmental Protection Agency predicts extremely hot days will "more than triple" between 2050 and 2100.

By the way, temperatures that do wind up being warmer than normal in winter will be accompanied by a forecast of drier-than-normal conditions. The issue here is that earlier-than-expected vegetation growth lowers soil moisture leading to the heat in the late spring and summer. This then leads to an even bigger potential of wildfires that are more numerous in the dry summer months.

Perhaps the second biggest negative to the warmer winters, and one that goes hand in hand with crops blooming early, is an early onset of the spring trees and the allergies they inflict on people. Sometimes there will be an extension of the dreaded cedar season.

Those of you who are new to Central Texas need to be aware that cedar is probably the No. 1 pollen for local allergy sufferers. The season typically begins in December and lasts through February, but we have already seen a little cedar show up under the microscope. On Nov. 23, the first cedar showed up at three grains per cubic meter. Cedar trees have been known to pollinate after February.

The No. 1 pollen for allergy sufferers then combines with the No. 2 pollen for allergy sufferers. Oak pollen typically begins blooming in late February but a warmer-than-normal winter will often lead to its season starting earlier ... and lasting longer. Other trees that are expected earlier include American Elm, Ash and Mulberry.

There are many more potential negative impacts of a warmer than normal but these are some of the impacts here at home.

However, many people will appreciate the warmth if it means avoiding the cold snaps and the ice/snow Central Texas has experienced the past few winters.