‘Wicked’ and ‘Moana 2’ Set to Deliver One of the Biggest Thanksgiving Box Office Feasts Ever

There has never been a Broadway movie adaptation that has earned the opening gross or effusive praise that Universal’s “Wicked” enjoyed this weekend. But even with its $114 million haul from 3,888 domestic screens ahead of a big Thanksgiving weekend, no musical has faced as stiff competition as the film that “Wicked” will be sharing theaters with starting this Wednesday: Disney’s “Moana 2.”

With eight years of family goodwill built by endless rewatches on Disney+, the sequel is expected to break the Thanksgiving record set in 2019 by the second weekend of “Frozen II” with $125 million. Globally, “Moana 2” is looking at a launch total of $225 million with a chance of getting closer to the $295 million global start of “Inside Out 2” this past summer.

Paramount’s “Gladiator II,” which opened to a comparatively modest-but-still solid $55.5 million, will find its own lane in theaters from mostly male moviegoers for its R-rated sword fights and ancient Roman spectacle. But “Moana 2,” with its family friendly musical numbers, is likely to not only bring in parents and kids, but also peel away some of the 18-35 female moviegoers that “Wicked” needs to keep turning out not just this winter, but to drum up interest for “Wicked — Part II” next year.

Daniel Loria, editorial director of Boxoffice Pro, expects “Moana 2” to rule the charts this weekend, possibly at the slight expense of “Wicked.” Even if that’s the case, he believes Universal has built up the buzz that “Wicked” needs to succeed longterm — something he believes will be a larger trend this winter.

“I don’t think any of the films this winter have been designed to be make-or-break on opening weekend or even after two weekends, and that’s what you want over the holidays,” Loria said. “Theaters and studios are looking for films with lots of playability. The fact that ‘Wicked’ already has singalong screenings set for Christmas shows how Universal is playing the long game.”

And the long game is looking good. After an inconsistent year filled with strike-induced release droughts between January and May, the combined output of “Moana 2,” “Wicked” and “Gladiator II” promises to deliver one of the biggest Thanksgiving weekends in box office history, challenging for the highest five-day overall gross ever for Thanksgiving weekend, which was set in 2018 with $314 million.

And even with no “Avatar” or “Star Wars”-level end-of-year hits in December, the sheer volume of films is expected to help the market springboard into a 2025 where more consistent output from studios is expected, making it less likely that theaters will deal with weeks-long declines in ticket sales. Exhibitors tell TheWrap they are expecting a 2025 domestic total somewhere between $9.5 billion and $10 billion, which would be an improvement from the $8.9 billion total of 2023 but still short of the $11.3 billion seen in 2019 before inflation adjustment.

“Once again, it’s clear that when healthy competition meets premium experiences, the marketplace thrives, and consumers win,” Michael O’Leary, president of the National Association of Theater Owners, said in a statement Sunday. “This is a tremendous catalyst for a strong box office going into December and the new year.”

The “Moana” tsunami

Eight years ago, “Moana” earned an $82 million five-day Thanksgiving weekend launch and went on to gross $248.7 million domestic and $643.3 million worldwide. It was a respectable result and another hit for Disney, but was well short of the $1 billion global total that another one of the studio’s animated offerings, “Zootopia,” had made earlier in 2016.

But following the 2019 launch of Disney+ and the COVID-19 pandemic that followed a year later, “Moana” rose higher and higher in popularity. The film is the most-watched title on Disney+ since its launch with a staggering 80 billion viewing hours — the equivalent of watching the film 748 million times. It is also ranked by Nielsen as one of the top five most-watched films on any streaming platform in the last five years.

So it is little wonder that last February, during the company’s quarterly earnings call, Disney CEO Bob Iger announced that a “Moana” streaming series previously announced in 2020 was being overhauled into a theatrical sequel. The announcement came as Disney was struggling with movie releases like “The Marvels,” which became the first Marvel Studios production to fail to gross $100 million in North America.

Now “Moana 2” is heavily favored to join Pixar’s “Inside Out 2” and Marvel’s “Deadpool & Wolverine” as Disney’s third $1 billion-plus box office grosser in 2024.

It’s part of a radical rebound for Disney after a deeply inconsistent 2023, which included the Thanksgiving flop “Wish,” which earned just $255 million worldwide. That film, meant to celebrate Disney’s 100th anniversary, was preceded in Thanksgiving 2022 with an even worse bomb in “Strange World,” which grossed a paltry $73.6 million globally.

The decision by Iger and Disney to lean harder into sequels — follow-ups to “Zootopia,” “The Incredibles,” “Toy Story” and “Frozen” are on the horizon — is paying off big, with the company’s stock up 27.8% from a year ago. Fueling the recent surge was its fiscal fourth quarter earnings in which Disney+ became one of the first streaming services to turn a yearly profit.

No rest for the “Wicked”

With “Moana 2” heading for one of the biggest launches ever seen at the box office, thanks primarily to nostalgic Zoomers and Maui-loving kids, where can “Wicked” turn to keep its own buzzy opening going?

Families made up a rather small portion of the opening weekend audience of “Wicked,” with moviegoers under 18 only comprising 13% of the audience share. But that might not tell the whole story. Insiders at Universal say that “Wicked” over-indexed in Salt Lake City and Nashville, two cities where theaters particularly rely on families for revenue.

With Thanksgiving coming up, there is a strong chance that a portion of the core audience for “Wicked” — those who were sold on the film prior to release rather than gaining interest through post-release word-of-mouth — is holding off on seeing the film until the holiday weekend when they will have time to head to the theaters, potentially with their families.

The trend could also extend to “Gladiator II,” which saw a fairly even balance of moviegoers over and under the age of 35 this weekend thanks to a strong turnout from moviegoers who were too young to see the first “Gladiator” in theaters nearly a quarter-century ago. But the demographics may skew older as the weekends go by as audiences 45 and up who don’t immediately turn out for films come out to see the Ridley Scott legacyquel.

Even if the lion’s share of family turnout goes to “Moana 2” this coming weekend, Universal is banking on the buzz from such a large number of opening weekend moviegoers drawing interest from families and general audiences in a way that past Broadway adaptations like “In the Heights” and “The Color Purple” failed to do. Many Broadway films fail to draw interest outside of pre-existing musical fans who largely see the film on opening weekend, but “Wicked” should overcome that with its fantasy-filled big-screen appeal — and on the heels of a truly massive merch and marketing blitz.

“‘Moana 2’ is going to be huge, but I think we’ll see continued turnout from 18-35 women for ‘Wicked’ along with some support for couples over Thanksgiving weekend,” Loria said.

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