Potential trade target: Nolan Arenado
The Cardinals are embarking on a weird offseason. The team has fallen short of expectations and this will be John Mozeliak’s last running the team before he hands things off to Chaim Bloom. They definitely have talent, but they need an organizational reset to shake up the roster and get younger.
Veteran Nolan Arenado is one of the contracts they will be aggressive about moving this off-season. The ten-time Gold Glove third baseman will turn 34 next April, and is owed $74 million over the next three seasons, plus millions in salary deferrals. He has a no-trade clause but is willing to waive it in the right deal, and is even willing to move to first base to create roster flexibility for his new team.
Even after 12 seasons in the big leagues, Arenado is still a productive Major League regular, posting 2.5 rWAR this season. His willingness to move to first base is nice, but acquiring him to play first base is like buying a PS5 to serve as a paperweight. Arenado was a Gold Glove finalist this year and was third among all third baseman in Outs Above Average. He’s up there with Adrian Beltre and Brooks Robinson among the best defenders at third of all-time, and while he may have lost a step he is still among the best in the league.
He has fallen a bit more with the bat, although he still posted an OPS+ of 101 this season. As recently as 2022 he was a 7.7 rWAR player, finishing third in MVP voting with a line .293/.358/.533 and 30 home runs. His numbers have declined since then, but this year he managed to hit .272/.325/.394 with 16 home runs. It was the worst slugging percentage of his career, but it was Ruthian compared to the .232/.287/.352 line the Royals got from their third basemen this year.
While Arenado doesn’t walk a ton, he doesn’t strike out much either. His 14 percent strikeout rate over the past four seasons is 21st-lowest in baseball. This year he had a contact rate of 84.4 percent, just ahead of Jonathan India, who the Royals just acquired.
But the power has largely evaporated. His barrel rate and hard-hit rate plummeted this year. He hit 21 “no doubter” home runs in 2021 - he hit just two this year. Just 12 of his 16 home runs would have been out at Kauffman Stadium.
Acquiring an older player for the kind of salary Arenado is scheduled for would be a very risky move. The Cardinals would certainly have to eat some money to make this palatable, but Katie Woo of The Athletic expresses doubts the team is willing to do pay to move him.
The Cardinals likely would resist eating significant money in a trade, but potential suitors might resist giving up better talent if they could not acquire Arenado at a discounted rate.
Baseball Trade Values puts Arenado’s trade value at -$22 million, which seems about right. He is scheduled to make $32 million next year, $27 million in 2026, and $15 million in 2027, with the Rockies paying $5 million of his salary in both 2025 and 2026. If the Cardinals would eat $11 million each season over the next two years of that deal, the contract is a bit more palatable although a new team is still paying a hefty salary for an older player with diminished power. Then there are the tricky deferrals that run through 2041 that would have to be sorted out.
The free agent market for hitters isn’t great this winter, but it seems more attractive to pay a Tyler O’Neill or Jurickson Profar to upgrade the outfield than to give up a potentially larger salary plus prospects to get Arenado at this point in his career. If the Cardinals are truly desperate to move his contract and are willing to eat even more of his salary, there is a point where it makes sense for the Royals to inquire about his services. But Father Time is undefeated, and while the Royals had a productive 34-year-old of their own in Salvador Perez, to gamble on two players staying productive and healthy at that age is quite risky.