Oscar odds update: ‘Wicked’ star Cynthia Erivo soars into experts’ Best Actress predictions

No need to look to the western sky to find Cynthia Erivo — she can now be located in our Oscar experts‘ Best Actress predictions.

Buoyed by great reviews and record box office numbers, the “Wicked” star has soared into the top five nomination rankings of our influential media pundits. As of this writing, the experts collectively predict that the Best Actress Oscar lineup will be Mikey Madison (“Anora”) at 37/10 odds, Karla Sofía Gascón (“Emilia Pérez”) at 9/2 odds, Angelina Jolie (“Maria”) at 9/2 odds, Marianne Jean-Baptiste (“Hard Truths”) at 8/1 odds, and Erivo at 8/1 odds.

Universal Pictures’ “Wicked,” Jon M. Chu‘s long-awaited adaptation of the popular Broadway stage musical, finally opened in theaters on Friday, Nov. 22. Erivo plays Elphaba Thropp, aka the Wicked Witch of the West, and Ariana Grande takes on the role of her frenemy Galinda Upland, aka Glinda the Good Witch. Other notable cast members include Jonathan Bailey as Fiyero Tigelaar, Michelle Yeoh as Madame Morrible, and Jeff Goldblum as the Wonderful Wizard of Oz.

Erivo has two breakout moments in the film: “The Wizard and I,” in which Elphaba sings about her desire to be accepted despite her green skin color, and “Defying Gravity,” the iconic end-of-act ballad (or, in this case, the end-of-movie ballad) in which she finally learns to live without limits. The actress also has many fun scenes with Grande, as their wildly different characters begin to understand each other’s unique personalities.

This would be Erivo’s third career Oscar nomination, after receiving a pair of bids for “Harriet” (2019) in Best Actress and Best Song (“Stand Up”). Meanwhile, director Chu and supporting actress Grande are in the hunt for their very first Oscar mentions.

Out of Gold Derby’s 33 Oscar experts from major media outlets, the following 19 have Erivo in their personal rankings for Best Actress: Andrea Mandell (People Magazine), Anne Thompson (Indiewire), Brian Truitt (USA Today), Clayton Davis (Variety), Eric Deggans (NPR), Jazz Tangcay (Variety), Jenelle Riley (Variety), Joey Nolfi (Entertainment Weekly), John Horn (NPR), Kate Erbland (Indiewire), Keith Simanton (IMDb), Kevin Polowy (CBR), Michael Musto (Queerty), Perri Nemiroff (Collider), Peter Travers (ABC), Shawn Edwards (WDAF-TV Fox), Susan King (Gold Derby), Susan Wloszczyna (Gold Derby), and Thelma Adams (Gold Derby).

Have YOU made your Oscar predictions yet? It’s fun and easy — get started right now! The nominations will be announced on Jan. 17, 2025, and the Academy Awards ceremony is scheduled for Sunday, March 2 on ABC.

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