Where does the SF Giants’ rotation stand, and who are their best free-agency fits?

The Giants’ 2024 rotation didn’t live up to its preseason hype — or Farhan Zaidi’s assessment of being the “best rotation in baseball”.

Despite the additions of Blake Snell, Robbie Ray and Jordan Hicks, San Francisco’s rotation finished 18th in ERA, 23rd in wins above replacement (according to FanGraphs) and 29th in innings pitched. As president of baseball operations Buster Posey and general manager Zack Minasian embark on their first offseason, starting pitching stands to be a priority — even more so after Snell defected to the Dodgers on Tuesday night.

“As a baseball player, you want to be as complete as you possibly can on both sides of the ball,” Posey said. “I think that’s ultimately how we want to create a roster, with strong pitching and strong defense and the ability to score some runs in different ways.”

Let’s take a look at the state of San Francisco’s rotation, as well as the options available on the free-agent market:

(All projections are via Steamer)

RHP Logan Webb
Age: 28
2024 stats: 13-10, 204 2/3 innings (led National League), 3.47 ERA, 2.95 fielding-independent pitching, 172 K, 50 BB, 4.4 fWAR
2025 projections: 12-11, 201, 3.48 ERA, 3.29 FIP, 175 K, 45 BB, 3.6 fWAR

Webb wasn’t as dominant as when he was named the Cy Young Award runner-up, but the first-time All-Star maintained his status as one of baseball’s best pitchers. He’s the undisputed anchor of San Francisco’s rotation and stands to maintain that role next season.

LHP Robbie Ray
Age: 33
2024 stats: 3-2 record, 7 starts, 30 2/3 innings, 4.70 ERA, 4.96 FIP, 43 K, 15 BB, 0.0 fWAR
2025 projections: 9-10 record, 28 starts, 161 innings, 3.98 ERA, 3.88 FIP, 174 K, 51 BB, 1.9 fWAR

Acquired from the Mariners via trade last offseason, Ray spent most of his first season in San Francisco rehabbing from the Tommy John surgery he underwent in May 2023. The left-hander flashed glimpses of his Cy Young form but made just seven starts due to a left hamstring strain. He has only thrown 34  innings over the last two seasons. Can the 33-year-old handle a full season’s workload?

RHP Jordan Hicks
Age: 28
2024 stats: 4-7 record, 29 games (20 starts), 109 2/3 innings, 4.10 ERA, 4.37 FIP, 96 K, 47 BB, 0.5 fWAR
2025 projections: 7-9 record, 24 starts, 131 innings, 4.20 ERA, 4.19 FIP, 116 K, 56 BB, 0.9 fWAR

Hicks had never been a full-time major-league starter prior to last season, but the Giants signed the flamethrower to a four-year, $44 million deal to be part of the rotation. The results were mixed.

Following a hot start, Hicks’ efficiency dipped as the innings accumulated. He only pitched in relief from July 28 onward, then hit the injured list in August due to right shoulder inflammation. By season’s end, he eclipsed triple digits in innings for the first time since 2017. Despite the late-season move to the bullpen, Hicks stands to re-join San Francisco’s rotation.

LHP Kyle Harrison
Age: 23
2024 stats: 7-7 record, 24 starts, 124 1/3 innings, 4.56 ERA, 4.33 FIP, 118 K, 42 BB, 0.8 fWAR
2025 projections: 8-9 record, 26 starts, 145 innings, 4.06 ERA, 4.09 FIP, 148 K, 54 BB, 1.3 fWAR

In his first full major-league season, Harrison looked like, well, a rookie. Good outings, bad outings and solid outings all equated to a fine year. The real intrigue lies in how he evolved as the season went on.

In April, Harrison heavily relied on his four-seam fastball (65.6%) with a smattering of changeups (22%) and a sprinkling of slurves (11.2%). As Harrison’s velocity faded, partially the product of an increased workload that helped cause left shoulder inflammation, the lefty relied more on his secondary stuff. By September, Harrison slashed his fastball usage (47.9%) and upped his slurve usage (30.1%).

If Harrison can re-discover the mid-90s velocity he flashed in 2023 and blend it with a balanced pitch mix, it’s easy to imagine him taking a step forward next season.

RHP Hayden Birdsong
Age: 23
2024 stats: 5-6 record, 16 starts, 72 innings, 4.75 ERA, 4.67 FIP, 88 K, 43 BB, 0.1 fWAR
2025 projection: 7-8 record, 36 games (19 starts), 121 innings, 4.10 ERA, 4.12 FIP, 128 K, 53 BB, 0.7 fWAR

Birdsong’s debut was the product of necessity, making just two starts with Triple-A Sacramento before being called up. Given he started the year with Double-A Richmond, Birdsong fared well enough despite being fast-tracked to San Francisco.

There are two numbers that summarize Birdsong’s rookie season: 11.00 and 5.38.

If Birdsong pitched enough innings to qualify, his 11.00 strikeouts per nine innings would’ve ranked second among all starters, right behind Cy Young Award winner Chris Sale of Atlanta (11.40). On that same note, his 5.38 walks per nine innings would’ve been the worst among all starters by a wide margin (Toronto’s Chris Bassitt led the league at 3.68).

Birdsong has excellent stuff, but maintaining a spot in the rotation will hinge on cutting down walks and consistently pitching at least five innings — even if that means sacrificing strikeouts.

Worth mentioning: Keaton Winn, Mason Black

This quintet represents a solid rotation, albeit one that contains a lot of variance. Aside from Webb, it’s difficult to project what the Giants will get out of Ray or Hicks or Harrison or Birdsong. And given how injuries decimated San Francisco’s rotation, the team needs far more major-league quality depth. So, who’s available on the open market?

The aces

RHP Roki Sasaki, RHP Corbin Burnes, LHP Max Fried, LHP Blake Snell

Top of the rotation

RHP Jack Flaherty, LHP Sean Manaea, RHP Nathan Eovaldi, RHP Walker Buehler

Middle rotation

RHP Shane Bieber, RHP Max Scherzer, RHP Luis Severino, RHP Nick Pivetta, LHP Jose Quintana, RHP Justin Verlander, RHP Nick Pivetta, RHP Alex Cobb, RHP Charlie Morton, LHP Matthew Boyd, LHP Andrew Heaney, RHP Tomoyuki Sugano

Depth options

RHP Kyle Gibson, LHP Patrick Sandoval, LHP Patrick Corbin, RHP Michael Lorenzen, RHP Mike Clevinger, RHP Frankie Montas, RHP Griffin Canning, RHP Lance Lynn, Trevor Williams, RHP Anthony DeSclafani, RHP Colin Rea, RHP Cal Quantril

With all due respect to Burnes, Fried and Snell, the most interesting pitcher among the top dogs is Sasaki — and not just for his talent. As an international free agent, Sasaki can only make the league minimum plus a minuscule signing bonus. Every single team should conceivably have the means to afford “The Monster of the Reiwa Era.” If money isn’t a factor, signing Sasaki comes down to making the best pitch possible, and the Giants can’t match the “recent success” message of other teams like the Dodgers and Padres.

The Giants are reportedly expected to slash payroll next season, so they’re likely to avoid dolling out nine-figure deals to the likes of Burnes, Fried and Snell. Among those in the latter categories, Manaea, the former starter with the Giants and A’s, is an especially intriguing option.

Manaea reinvented himself with the Mets and turned in arguably the best season of his career, one that sets him up for a big payday. The 33-year-old had an odd 2023 season under former manager Gabe Kapler, one where he both started and relieved. Under Bob Melvin, his manager with both the A’s and Padres, Manaea won’t have to worry about oscillating roles. Yusei Kikuchi signed a three-year, $63 million deal with the Angels, and Manaea will likely command an even bigger deal.