Mailbag: Conor McGregor fallout, UFC Macau, and what’s going on with PFL and Bellator

Last week, the UFC made its long-awaited return to China with UFC Macau, where Petr Yan turned in a vintage performance against Deiveson Figueiredo to reinsert himself into the bantamweight title conversation. Plus a whole bunch of other stuff happened including Conor McGregor being found civilly liable for sexually assaulting a woman in 2018.

Needless to say, it was a busy week so let’s discuss it, along with what’s coming up.

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Conor McGregor fallout

“Do you see a fallout from Conor’s lawsuit with regards to broadcast deal? A video game company already dropped him. UFC doesn’t care unless it affects their bottom line; but could it affect negotiations? Or will the deal be too attenuated from the case?”

Let’s start here: while McGregor was found civilly liable for sexually assaulting Nikita Hand, and ordered to pay roughly a quarter million dollars in damages, it’s important to remember this was not a criminal conviction. For the uninitiated, the difference between civil and criminal (other than punishment, obviously) is that civil convictions require “a balancing of probabilities” while criminal convictions require a jury to convict “beyond a reasonable doubt.” To simplify, basically civil judgments require a 51% of certainty, while criminal ones require 99.99% of certainty.

That being said, convictions in the court of public opinion require far less than a civil jury, and while there will always be people who reflexively defend anything, my anecdotal reading of the McGregor fallout has thus far led me to believe that a majority of people are out on McGregor. That fallout is already being felt by McGregor who has sponsors and projects dropping him like a heavy weight. Even his own whiskey brand (technically not his since he sold ownership, but you know what I mean) Proper No. Twelve has distanced themselves from him. Because this is what happens when you are credibly accused of rape.

Of course, the UFC might be one of the few major companies in the world where that isn’t necessarily a deal breaker. After all, McGregor wouldn’t be the first person accused of terrible crimes to still get fights in the UFC. Far from it. For years, UFC CEO Dana White has written off all sorts of behavior that wouldn’t fly in any other context with a waive of the hand, and “I’ve got 700 lunatics under contract.” Given that this is not a criminal conviction, it’s easy to imagine the promotion will brush this under the rug as best it can.

And I suspect it’ll be quite successful at doing so. White himself faced no recourse for slapping his wife in public and that went away in a matter of weeks. The fanbase, by and large, does not care and I struggle to think any broadcaster will have huge concerns either. After all, ESPN (a Disney-owned company) had no qualms with running Greg Hardy out there, and he wasn’t even really a needle mover.

No, the fallout from McGregor’s actions will land squarely on McGregor himself. Because while the UFC is unlikely to care, as we’ve seen, the rest of the world does. There are simply too many other people to do business with who don’t have something so terrible following them around. So I suspect McGregor will continue to get dropped by sponsors, and from business deals, and any plans there were for him to break into Hollywood are out the window. Who needs the headache of tying themselves to someone like that?

In fact, in a weird and tragic twist of fate, this may actually be the thing to bring McGregor back to fighting. He certainly doesn’t need to as he’s still richer than cream, but with the world closing itself off to McGregor for the first time in years, and few other business opportunities available to him, this might be what pushes him back into the gym. In fact, he’s already hinting at just that.

Because if there’s one thing that’s been proven time and again its that people can forgive damn near anything if you give them a reason to love you again. After all, Mike Tyson actually went to prison for rape and yet not even a month ago 60 million households tuned in to watch him fight again. Maybe McGregor can take a similar journey back into the good graces of the public.

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UFC Macau

“What do you thing Deiveson Figueiredo’s next move should be?”

Now on to some happier topics, namely the aftermath of UFC Macau.

On Saturday, Petr Yan and Deiveson Figueiredo put on one of the best fights of 2024. It won’t win Fight of the Year, and it probably won’t even crack the top-five, but it was the definition of elite MMA on every level. With the win, we all know where Yan should go next — a five-round rematch with Sean O’Malley — but what about Figgy Smalls?

Figueiredo is about to turn 37, which means we probably don’t have that much longer left for the prime of his career. As such, we should not waste it. Figueiredo should exclusively fight in fun matchups, and the first one that jumps off the page to me is Jose Aldo. Both are coming off competitive losses (Aldo should’ve won, I’ll die on this hill) and both are former champions in a different division then they started in. When the UFC heads back to Brazil next years, book that for five rounds as the co-main event.

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Carlos Ulberg

“What next for Carlos Ulberg after win #7 in a row?”

Ulberg beat Volkan Oezdemir in a professional yet uninspiring performance on the main card of UFC Macau. Now, he sits at No. 7 in the UFC light heavyweight rankings and with his big winning streak, looks poised for a title run. Given all that, there’s no wrong way to eat this Reese’s, really, but Ulberg vs. Khalil Rountree in a striking matchup seems fun and appropriate.

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Jon Jones

“How do you determine if Jon Jones is trying to get paid what he’s worth to fight Tom Aspinall or if he’s pricing himself out because he has no real intentions of fighting him, aka ducking?”

Well, Jones will never get paid what he’s worth to fight Tom Aspinall because he fights in the UFC and they don’t do that. But setting that aside, the answer is that we will never know. Only Jon Jones knows what’s in his own heart and what his motivations are. So unless you’re Jones, we can only guess. And unless Jones comes out and says “I will only do it for $1 billion” then a guess is all we have.

Unless, of course, the UFC does decide to spend the money needed to make the fight. If the UFC meets Jon’s demands and then he starts moving the goalposts, then that’s a clear indication he never wanted the action in the first place. But again, will we ever know that? Unlikely.

So ultimately, you’ll just have to decide for yourself whether Jones asking for more money than he normally would (which is what he himself is saying he’s doing) is savvy negotiation or a tacit admission that he thinks he could lose to Aspinall and thus only will risk it if he’s paid a king’s ransom. I know where I stand, and honestly, I don’t blame him for the choice I believe he’s making even if I don’t necessarily like it.

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PFL Championships

“What are you looking forward to more, Thanksgiving or a gazillion hours of the 2024 PFL Championship?”

Why not both? PFL Championships and Thanksgiving is a tradition like the NBA and Christmas.

OK, it’s not quite like that, but I’ll admit that I do enjoy the PFL Championships every year. Because even if you haven’t kept up with the season format or whatever, we’re still talking about meaningful fights. Six new millionaires will be created on Friday, and even if the fights are all terrible (they could be!), that’s still pretty damn cool.

Having said that, I am once again begging the PFL to please hire me as a consultant, because doing one mega-card on Friday strains event the most optimistic of fans (like myself). There is simply no reason to hold all six tournament championships on the same card, and there is REALLY NO REASON WHATSOEVER to also have five more regional championship bouts on that same card. 10 fights that can possibly go 25 minutes is INSANE! Plus, for some reason known to only God and Donn Davis, the event also has 6 more fights scheduled! There are jurisdictions that would consider this a war crime.

The very obvious, simple answer here is that the PFL Championships should be a two-day extravaganza! Half the tournament bouts on Friday and then the other half on Saturday. Take over the entire weekend, and deliver not just championship bouts, but fill in with as many other good fights as you can. Aside from it being good business, don’t you think fighters might like the chance to earn some money right before the holidays and the long break you have until the start of next season?

This isn’t hard and I don’t know why they can’t see it.

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Bellator

“Thoughts on the Bellator lack of fights situation?”

And along those lines, PFL has to get its shit together with Bellator. When nearly every one of the best fighters you acquired in buying out Bellator has spoken out publicly against you, you’re screwing the pooch. All the good will PFL had at the start of the year is gone, and I truly have no clue what the hell they are doing at this point.

When PFL bought Bellator, my immediate thought was that this was a great move, because while PFL has a good broadcast deal and some things in its favor, what it didn’t have was a roster of talent. Acquiring Bellator greatly helped them on that front, but to seem them flounder and flub all these great fighters has been nothing short of a disaster. Not just because it sucks as a fan, but because it’s killing the PFL brand. When respected fighters shit on you en masse, that doesn’t make other fighters start lining up to join the promotion. It’s just terrible business that won’t just hurt them this year, but will very likely greatly impede the PFL’s ability to re-sign this talent when the time comes. It’s a completely unforced error.

My best guess is that PFL couldn’t financially close up Bellator after acquiring it for some legal or financial reasons and instead had to keep it limping along to run out a clock. Frankly, it feels like that clock is near its end, and my guess is that by next year, Bellator will be folded completely under the PFL brand, at which point fighters may have an easier time getting booked, but the damage may already be done by then.

I thought 2024 could be a transformative year for the PFL, and it’s looking like I might be right, just not in the way I imagined.

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Thanks for reading, and thank you for everyone who sent in tweets (Xs?)! Do you have any burning questions about things at least somewhat related to combat sports? Then you’re in luck, because you can send your tweets to me, @JedKMeshew, and I will answer my favorite ones! Doesn’t matter if they’re topical or insane, just so long as they are good. Thanks again, and see y’all next week.