College Football Playoff Update: Playoff Projections, Week 14 NCAAF Best Bets, and More
As part of the work I do at Fantasy Life, I run a college football betting model that predicts weekly spreads and scores, while also power ranking all 134 FBS teams and projecting the college football playoff bracket. What you’ll find below is a weekly update on the best of this week’s content. I hope you find it helpful!
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This Week’s Top 5
(The full Top 25 appears at the end of this column)
- Ohio State
- Texas
- Oregon
- Georgia
- Notre Dame
Projected College Football Playoff Rankings
The major difference between my projected bracket and the official one put out by the College Football Playoff selection committee is they aren’t projecting out for strength of schedule and remaining opponents; I am. So while our brackets may look a little different now, I’m hoping my version will be what it looks like when the playoffs arrive.
My Top Four Teams (Receiving Byes)
- Ohio State
- Texas
- Miami
- Arizona State
First Round Games
No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 12 Boise State
No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 11 Tennessee
No. 7 Georgia vs. No. 10 SMU
No. 8 Notre Dame vs. No. 9 Indiana
The Next Four Out:
Alabama, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Clemson
My Top 5 QB Prospects
You can read the full breakdown on Fantasy Life, but here’s a look at where I have the top college QBs ranked as Draft season creeps up on us.
- Shedeur Sanders | Colorado | 6’1/215
- Cameron Ward | Miami (FL) | 6’2/220
- Jalen Milroe | Alabama | 6’2/225
- Garrett Nussmeier | LSU | 6’2/200
- Kurtis Rourke | Indiana | 6’4/231
Milroe remains raw as a thrower, but he’s got a shot at Round 1 due to his toolset — he’s a ludicrous athlete with a huge arm. There’s a wide band of outcomes here. Milroe’s stock could surge if he plays well down the stretch. But if his ending to the season is not emphatic, there is also the possibility of the redshirt junior returning to Tuscaloosa for one more season.
Let’s Go Deep: Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State — One of My 10 Best Bets This Weekend
Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State
My model says: Jax State -2.6
My bet: Jax State +2.5
Western Kentucky has lost two-straight, a surprising 12-7 upset loss to Louisiana Tech, and a 38-21 beatdown by Liberty last week. This matchup doesn’t set up well for the Hilltoppers to turn things around this week.
WKU has a really good pass defense (No. 15 success rate and No. 53 EPA/dropback). But WKU’s run defense stinks (No. 111 success rate and No. 100 yards per rush with sacks omitted).
That’s a bad recipe against Jacksonville State’s offense. The Gamecocks have one of the G5’s best rushing offenses, and it is relentless. The Gamecocks are No. 4 in standard downs rush rate and No. 5 EPA/run.
WKU’s Air Raid will gets its yards against a mediocre Jacksonville State pass defense, but the Gamecocks are top-25 in turnovers forced and interception % and feel like a good bet to flip the field on a WKU offense that throws too many interceptions at least once.
There is a thought that Jacksonville State won’t be motivated for this game because they’ve already clinched homefield in the CUSA title game.
But Liberty clinches the second berth if it can beat Sam Houston on Friday. If that happens, it would render this game completely meaningless for both sides. Beyond that, WKU got waxed last week in a game against Liberty where it had all the motivation in the world to win.
Lastly, one year ago, Jacksonville State traveled to New Mexico State in the finale. NMSU was coming off a huge upset of Auburn, and it had already clinched a rematch with Liberty the following week in the CUSA title game. It was an all-time bad spot for NMSU – and the Aggies beat Jacksonville State 20-17.
We think motivational factors are being discussed too much in this game – when they could ultimately have no net-effect on either side – whereas in-a-vacuum line value on Jax State and a highly-advantageous in-game matchup is not being discussed enough.
Thor Nystrom’s Top 25 College Football Rankings
Check out the full top 25 with my college football power rankings.
| Rank | Team | Conf | Proj Wins | Power Rating | SOS Rank |
| 1 | Ohio St. | B1G | 11.0 | 49.0 | 21 |
| 2 | Texas | SEC | 10.7 | 48.8 | 13 |
| 3 | Oregon | B1G | 12.0 | 47.8 | 41 |
| 4 | Georgia | SEC | 10.0 | 47.6 | 4 |
| 5 | Notre Dame | IND | 10.6 | 45.2 | 53 |
| 6 | Alabama | SEC | 8.9 | 45.0 | 8 |
| 7 | Ole Miss | SEC | 9.0 | 44.6 | 24 |
| 8 | Tennessee | SEC | 9.8 | 44.3 | 47 |
| 9 | Miami (FL) | ACC | 10.9 | 43.0 | 66 |
| 10 | Penn St. | B1G | 11.0 | 42.8 | 36 |
| 11 | South Carolina | SEC | 8.5 | 40.0 | 14 |
| 12 | Indiana | B1G | 11.0 | 39.9 | 64 |
| 13 | Clemson | ACC | 9.5 | 39.6 | 57 |
| 14 | Texas A&M | SEC | 8.3 | 39.3 | 20 |
| 15 | SMU | ACC | 10.8 | 38.9 | 67 |
| 16 | Iowa | B1G | 7.7 | 38.3 | 33 |
| 17 | Kansas St. | B12 | 8.5 | 38.2 | 38 |
| 18 | USC | B1G | 6.4 | 38.0 | 11 |
| 19 | Florida | SEC | 6.8 | 37.8 | 3 |
| 20 | Louisville | ACC | 7.7 | 37.7 | 37 |
| 21 | LSU | SEC | 7.7 | 37.6 | 9 |
| 22 | Auburn | SEC | 5.1 | 36.9 | 10 |
| 23 | Iowa St. | B12 | 9.5 | 36.5 | 27 |
| 24 | Oklahoma | SEC | 6.3 | 36.1 | 7 |
| 25 | Missouri | SEC | 8.7 | 35.9 | 40 |