Big Ten and other playoff scenarios to keep in mind ahead of Ohio State-Michigan game

COLUMBUS, Ohio (WCMH) -- Ohio State has a massive Saturday in store for it, with the chance to defeat Michigan for the first time in five years and to secure a spot in the Big Ten conference game for the first time in four years.

While the path for the second-ranked Buckeyes is simple, there is a way they could get to the Dec. 7 game in Indianapolis against No. 1 Oregon if they lose. The Buckeyes already look certain to make the initial 12-team College Football Playoff, but the same can't be said for other teams looking to qualify for conference championship weekend.

Here is a scenario breakdown for the Big Ten and other conferences to get you ready for a huge Week 14 in college football.

Ohio State path is simple: Win

The Buckeyes entered their last three games against the Wolverines with the same scenario: win and make the conference title game. Michigan had the same scenario, however, and took advantage in those contests.

For 2024, only Ohio State is chasing for a spot in Indianapolis. This would set up a rematch against Oregon, which won 32-31 in October.

The Buckeyes sit in second place in the Big Ten standings despite having identical records with Indiana and Penn State. Because Ohio State beat both those teams in November, it would still qualify for the title game if all three win Saturday.

With the Big Ten dropping divisions this season, fortune favored the Buckeyes with drawing the Hoosiers and Nittany Lions. Those head-to-head wins are the reason the path is so clear.

What if the Buckeyes lose?

Michigan is a 20-point underdog and will try to beat a ranked Ohio State team for the first time since 1993 as an unranked team. If the Buckeyes fall to the Wolverines for a fourth straight time, most hope is lost, but not all.

Ohio State can still qualify for the Big Ten final if it loses, Indiana falls to last-place Purdue, and Penn State loses to Maryland. That would create a three-way tie, with all three at 7-2 in Big Ten play, giving the Buckeyes the spot based on their head-to-head wins.

The Buckeyes, Hoosiers and Nittany Lions are all heavily favored, so an Ohio State loss coupled with the other contenders losing is unlikely. A loss by Ohio State with either Indiana or Penn State winning would eliminate the Buckeyes.

The Hoosiers only get in with a win and losses by Ohio State and Penn State. The Nittany Lions book a ticket with a win and a Buckeyes loss. Even if Penn State and Indiana win, the Nittany Lions would qualify on the strength of schedule tiebreaker.

What to watch in the other conferences

Eleven conference championship spots are on the line over Thanksgiving weekend. The new 12-team playoff guarantees five conference champions a place in the field.

Numerous teams that have never made the playoff and are on the outside of the picture can give themselves a chance to qualify with a conference title.

Here is a breakdown for notable conferences:

Atlantic Coast: Southern Methodist will play for the ACC title in Charlotte, North Carolina, in its first year in the conference. The Mustangs will play Miami or Clemson. If the Hurricanes beat Syracuse, they qualify. If they lose and Clemson beats South Carolina, the Tigers are in.

Southeastern: The SEC has been a wild ride, and it will all come down to one game at College Station, Texas. Georgia is safely through to its fourth straight SEC championship game in Atlanta and will face the winner of Saturday night's game between Texas and Texas A&M.

Big 12: Things are extra complicated in the Big 12 with Arizona State, Iowa State, BYU and Colorado tied with 6-2 conference records. If only two of those four teams win this weekend, they qualify for the Big 12 final in Dallas. If all four win, Arizona State and Iowa State would make it. Three team ties would create a whole host of number-crunching.

Mid-American: The MAC title game in Detroit is guaranteed to feature at least one Ohio school. The winner of Friday's game between Miami University and Bowling Green will quality, and Ohio can with a win Friday over Ball State. Buffalo has a slim chance if the Bobcats lose.

Mountain West: Boise State is awaiting Colorado State or UNLV to play next Friday in Idaho for the Mountain West title. Colorado State and UNLV advance with a win and the other losing. If both teams win, the highest ranked team in Tuesday's playoff rankings will qualify. If both lose, results analytics will decide.