Fresno State at UCLA football: Who has the edge?
FRESNO STATE (6-5, 4-3 Mountain West) at UCLA (4-7, 3-6 Big Ten)
When: Saturday, 12:30 p.m.
Where: Rose Bowl
TV/radio: Big Ten Network/570 AM
Line: UCLA by 8½ points
What’s at stake? UCLA has lost back-to-back games to Washington and USC but has the chance to end the season with a win on Saturday against Fresno State, which has won four straight games against the Bruins. The loss to USC eliminated UCLA’s chances at bowl eligibility, but the Bruins can still make a strong impression in their season finale. Head coach DeShaun Foster will meet with each individual player less than a week after this game, so the Bruins will all be looking to raise their value as roles will be determined for next season and transfer portal or NFL decisions will be made.
Who’s better? Penalties have hurt UCLA all season and the team is still the most-penalized team in the Big Ten with an average loss of 68.8 yards per game. The Bruins can beat Fresno State if they can stay disciplined. Fresno State has performed well at Rose Bowl Stadium in recent years and has won three straight games at the venue. Meanwhile, UCLA has only won one game at home this season. Defense and special teams will likely give the Bruins the chance to win after being tested by tough Big Ten opponents all season. Expect quarterback Ethan Garbers to play with his heart on his sleeve in his last game as a Bruin and all players to give a big final push to send Foster out with a win in his first year as head coach at UCLA.
Matchup to watch: Fresno State quarterback Mikey Keene vs. the UCLA pass rush. The Bruins should easily shut down the Bulldogs’ weak run game with their seventh-ranked rushing defense, which leaves an experienced Keene to take care of. The junior has started every game this season and leads the Mountain West Conference in passing yards (2,668), pass completions (246) and complete percentage (70.49). UCLA’s pass defense has held opponents to 247 passing yards per game and Keene averages 243 yards per game. UCLA edge rusher Oluwafemi Oladejo has succeeded in getting to the quarterback after switching positions from linebacker and has 4.5 sacks for a loss of 31 yards this season and 14 other Bruins have recorded half a sack or more.
UCLA wins if: The Bruins don’t give up unnecessary yardage due to penalties from lack of discipline. Taking care of the ball will also be critical to keeping the UCLA defense fresh, but penalties have made games more difficult than they should be throughout this season. If Keene has time to throw, the Bulldogs will keep moving down the field and will be difficult to stop.
Prediction: UCLA 24, Fresno State 17. UCLA will close out the season with a much-needed win to help attract recruits and set up success for next season. Fresno State’s Red Wave fans will travel well, but the Bulldogs won’t be able to match the Bruins’ passion.