Free Agent Profile: Tyler O’Neill, OF
Tyler O’Neill, OF
Postion: OF B/T: R/R
Age: 29 (06/22/1995)
2023 Traditional Stats: 473 PA, .241/.336/.511/.847, 31 HR, 61 RBI,
2023 Advanced Stats: 131 wRC+, 33.6 SO%, 11.2 BB%, .305 BABIP, .339 xwOBA, 2.5 fWAR
Rundown
Tyler O’Neill came out of the gates on fire in 2024, homering on Opening Day and slashing .320/.433/.693 (1.127 OPS) in March and April with 10 extra-base hits; nine of which were home runs. He struggled in May, but rebounded and posted an OPS over .900 in both June and July. His final two months weren’t as good, hitting under .200 in both August and September, with nine home runs in 33 games, but still crossed the 30-homer threshold and finished with a well-above-average 131 wRC+.
His expected stats are a mixed bag but overall positive, finishing in the 76th percentile in xwOBA and 90th percentile in xSLG with a 98th percentile barrel percentage, 90th percentile hard-hit percentage, and 87th percentile walk percentage. However, that came with an eighth percentile xBA, third percentile squared-up percentage, fifth percentile whiff percentage and second percentile strikeout percentage.
O’Neill hits the ball hard, really hard, and has the power numbers to back it up. But he also has a ton of swing-and-miss in his game. Among players with at least 400 plate appearances last year, he was tied for fifth with Michael Toglia in barrel percentage behind Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Giancarlo Stanton and Juan Soto. On the flip side, he was fourth-to-last in strikeout percentage behind Jose Siri, Nolan Gorman and Zack Gelof. When he makes contact it’s usually quality contact, but sometimes even making contact in the first place is an issue.
Defensively, O’Neill is below average, a big falloff from where he was earlier in his career. In 2021, O’Neill’s only other season where he eclipsed 100 games, he was in the 85th percentile in outs above average. That number has steadily dropped since, dropping to the 72nd percentile in 2022 and all the way down to the 18th percentile in 2024 (he didn’t qualify for the leaderboard in 2023). He still has a strong arm, but his range has really declined. He’s a two-time Gold Glove winner (2020 and 2021), but he’s not that player anymore.
The final and arguably most important thing to discuss about O’Neill is his durability. In 2024, alone, he had three separate stints on the injured list (IL), and he still played the second-most games of his career. It was first a short stint for a concussion in mid-April, then another short stint at the end of May for right knee inflammation, and then another few weeks in August for a left leg infection. N0 serious injuries, but it continued an unfortunate pattern of IL stints that he’s had for most of his career. After his breakout 2021 season where he played 138 games (and still had two IL stints), O’Neill played just 96 games in 2022 and 72 games in 2023. If you sign O’Neill, you almost have to go in expecting not to get a full season out of him.
Contract
O’Neill might have one of the most polarizing cases of any free agent out there. Overall, his 2024 season was a big success. He hit 31 home runs and had an OPS higher than the likes of Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso and Willy Adames, all of whom are projected to get a nine-figure contract on MLB Trade Rumors’ free agent predictions list. He also had a higher OPS than Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hernández, Christian Walker and Jurickson Profar, who are all projected to get larger contracts.
The biggest issue for O’Neill, as discussed, is his ability to stay on the field. Sure, he had a higher OPS than all the players listed above, but he played fewer games than all of them and has a history of missing significant time. MLB Trade Rumors’ prediction of three-years, $42 million seems fair for someone with his combination of upside and injury risk.
Recommendation
The Mets and O’Neill are probably not a fit. After acquiring Siri, the need for outfielders has lessened. Siri is far from a star and might not even be a lock to make the roster, but he is an elite defender in center field and has elite speed, giving him the makings of a valuable fourth or fifth outfielder. With Brandon Nimmo, Starling Marte, Jeff McNeil, and Tyrone Taylor on the roster, another outfielder isn’t totally needed. They also have Drew Gilbert, Jett Williams, and Luisangel Acuña in the pipeline, all of whom could be outfield options in 2025.
Obviously, the Mets are pursuing Juan Soto, but acquiring Soto is less about fit and more about just getting a player of his caliber in the building and then doing what you need to do to make the fit work. O’Neill isn’t the same type of guy. They could look at him as a potential designated hitter (DH) option, or a right fielder who could allow Marte to move to DH, but there are probably other players higher on the wish list than O’Neill.
He has a ton of pop, but he doesn’t offer much defensively anymore and the Mets are already plenty fortified in the corner outfield. If the Mets strike out on Soto and O’Neill wants to take a one-year deal to try to get a full season under his belt before taking another crack at free agency, it wouldn’t hurt to bring him in. Otherwise, the Mets should pass.
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