Ceasefire in Lebanon Is Stopgap Until Trump Takes Over, Israelis Say

JERUSALEM—President Joe Biden and his senior aides have described the ceasefire they brokered in Lebanon in historic terms. But Israeli leaders are counting down the days until Biden leaves office.

In the Rose Garden on Tuesday, Biden announced that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to the 60-day truce, which went into effect early Wednesday. Biden said the deal "heralds a new start for Lebanon" and "brings us closer to realizing the affirmative agenda that I’ve been pushing forward during my entire presidency: a vision for the future of the Middle East where it’s at peace and prosperous and integrated across borders." 

"I believe this agenda remains possible. And in my remaining time in office, I will work tirelessly to advance this vision … which strengthens America’s national security," he continued, vowing to use the final 54 days of his presidency to try to end Israel’s war in Gaza, to normalize Israel-Saudi relations, and to secure a "credible pathway for a Palestinian state."

But according to several current and former Israeli officials, Israeli leaders backed the ceasefire agreement primarily to run out the clock on the Biden administration, which has restrained and threatened Israel in an effort to end the Jewish state's multifront war with Iran and its terrorist affiliates, including Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. President-elect Donald Trump will be back in the White House when the 60-day deadline for troop withdrawals comes around, and they expect he will support a strong response to any violation of the deal as well as Israeli action against Hamas and Iran.

"It’s not for no reason that we insisted on 60 days," Ohad Tal, a member of Israel’s parliamentary defense committee from the governing Religious Zionism party, told the Washington Free Beacon.

The ceasefire provides "zero" security benefits to Israel in Lebanon, Tal said, noting that the Lebanese Army and international peacekeepers have abjectly failed to enforce Resolution 1701 for the past 18 years. He said pressure from the Biden administration was the "main reason" Israel nonetheless got behind the deal.

"It’s a bad deal," he added. "But it’s a bad deal that we had to sign under the circumstances, and that had everything to do with the current administration in America."

Hours before Biden trumpeted the ceasefire agreement at the White House, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu defended defended the deal to a skeptical public as something like a tactical pause in Israel’s nearly 14-month war. Netanyahu described the truce as a chance for the Israeli military, composed mostly of reservists, to rest, rearm, and "focus on the Iranian threat." He emphasized that his government would not hesitate to "renew the war," as it did following last November’s ceasefire in Gaza.

"The length of the ceasefire depends on what happens in Lebanon. If Hezbollah violates the agreement and tries to arm itself, we will attack," Netanyahu said. "Believe in our determination, believe in our path, in our commitment to victory."

Netanyahu also suggested that pressure from the Biden administration had forced Israel’s hand. 

"I say it openly, it is no secret that there have been big delays in weapons and munitions deliveries," he said, echoing explicit criticisms he made of the Biden administration in a speech to lawmakers last month. "These delays will be resolved soon. We will receive supplies of advanced weaponry that will keep our soldiers safe and give us more strike force to complete our mission."

In interviews with the Free Beacon, two current and three former Israeli officials confirmed Hebrew media reports that the Biden administration has slowed weapons deliveries to Israel, including the recent hold up of a shipment of 139 armored bulldozers on which soldiers rely to clear explosives and terrorist hideouts in Lebanon and Gaza.

Hours after the start of the ceasefire on Wednesday, U.S. officials leaked that Biden was advancing a $680 million weapons package to Israel. U.S. officials anonymously claimed the package was unconnected to Israel's cooperation with the truce. The Biden administration has long denied withholding weapons from Israel, aside from one shipment of 2,000 pound bombs that Biden publicly withheld in March.

Another factor in Israel's approval of the ceasefire agreement was fear that the Biden administration would otherwise facilitate a U.N. Security Council resolution harmful to the Jewish state, according to the current and former officials. Tal said the Israeli government had learned "the State Department was already working to arrange a resolution against Israel in the Security Council."

Israel’s Channel 14 news reported on Nov. 25 that Netanyahu privately told critics of the ceasefire there was a "real danger" Biden would punish Israel at the U.N. Security Council for not backing the deal. "If this happens—we will get both a ceasefire and no agreement—so if it is possible to postpone the end for two months and we have an American commitment to strike [Hezbollah] for any violation, it is surely better than the alternative," the report paraphrased Netanyahu saying.

Senior Israeli and U.S. officials told reporters in background briefings last week that the Biden administration did not explicitly threaten Israel with sanctions in relation to the ceasefire talks. But the officials did not deny that such a threat existed.

A State Department spokeswoman dodged questions from the Free Beacon on the subject in an email exchange, saying only: "Our goal was to reach an enduring diplomatic resolution that will enable civilians to safely return to their homes on both sides of the Blue Line. We achieved that with the close (and ongoing) communication of our Israeli and Lebanese counterparts."

Amir Avivi, a former senior Israeli military official who has advised Israel’s senior leadership during the war, told the Free Beacon that Netanyahu fears a repeat of the final weeks of Barack Obama’s presidency, during which the United States abstained from a U.N. National Security Council resolution that rejected any Israeli presence in the "occupied Palestinian territory" of the West Bank and East Jerusalem. 

"I heard Netanyahu speak many times about how traumatic and complicated it was to deal with Obama’s decision," Avivi said. "I think one of Netanyahu’s top priorities right now is to make sure the current U.S. administration ends without that kind of drama. So, Netanyahu negotiated this temporary ceasefire, and if it works, OK, and if not, then there will be a change of administration, and Israel will be in a position to decide what to do."

Under the ceasefire agreement, Israeli troops have 60 days to withdraw from southern Lebanon, where they have been carrying out operations for two months to destroy Hezbollah infrastructure near the border. Meanwhile, the Lebanese Army, with U.S. and French support, must move into the area to enforce U.N. Resolution 1701, which bars Hezbollah from keeping arms and military infrastructure south of the Litani River. The Biden administration separately guaranteed Israel's right to respond to violations of the deal. 

Kobi Michael, a former senior Israeli military intelligence official, told the Free Beacon that Israel’s leaders agreed to the ceasefire with the expectation that it would not outlast the Biden administration. 

It agreed to the deal, he said, based on several assumptions: "Israel assumes that Hezbollah will violate the ceasefire. Israel assumes that even the upgraded Lebanese Army will not be capable of preventing Hezbollah from coming back to the south and rebuilding its military capacities." 

Michael added, "Israel assumes that when the deadline to withdraw from Lebanon comes in 60 days, Trump will already be the president. And Israel assumes that Trump will agree with us that the ceasefire has been violated and we must be free to continue operating in Lebanon."

Asked about claims that Trump wants Israel to wind down the war before he takes office, the current and former officials expressed doubt that the president-elect was committed to such a tight timeline. They said lasting Middle East peace—as envisioned by Biden—would require a decisive confrontation with Iran. Israel has already begun preparations.

The country’s domestic weapons production industry, which has expanded over the course of the war, shifted focus toward Iran at least a month ago, according to Avivi.

"Israel’s challenge is to convince President Trump that we are handing him Iran on a silver platter," he said, noting that Israel has largely neutralized the Islamist regime’s most powerful proxies, Hezbollah and Iran, and taken out its air defenses. "All the hard work is done. Just bring the strategic bombers, and let’s get it over with. It’s one airstrike."

The Prime Minister’s Office, the State Department, and the White House declined to comment.

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